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May 8, 2005

Capital Flows
Is the balance of financial power shifting?

The IMF has about $200 billion that it can lend out. About $75 b is currently lent out, mostly to Brazil, Turkey and Argentina (data link), leaving a bit over $100 billion that could be lent out in …

June 7, 2005

China
Creditors, Debtors, Partners, Strategic Rivals, Mallaby, Pesek

Sebastian Mallaby is tired of the US blaming China for its own problems -- and notes, correctly, that the US hasn’t been terribly responsive to international criticism of its own policies.But who doe…

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

November 24, 2004

Financial Markets
Chinese yuan hits new low against euro, swiss franc, pound …

Just a reminder of what falling dollar currently means. Dollar depreciation is clearly part of what is needed to bring the US trade deficit down to a more sustainable level. But what is the case fo…

October 28, 2005

United States
Who would sit on today’s “committee to save the world”

That is one of many interesting issues raised by Times selectman Floyd Norris today. As Norris notes, Alan Greenspan never had half the power people thought he had.  All he does is set short-term (cr…

January 12, 2005

United States
Two stunnings numbers

Both start with six. China’s end 2004 reserves: $609.9 billion . And the United States’ $60.3 billion November trade deficit.The surge in China’s reserves should not have been that much of a surpri…

January 13, 2006

United States
On the origins of dark matter

Stephen "Current accounts almost always don't matter" Jen is intrigued by Ricardo Hausmann and Fredrico Struzenegger's discovery of dark matter.   Lots of others are too.   Michael Mandel for…

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February 27, 2006

Financial Markets
A butterfly flapped its wings in Iceland …

If you read the financial press closely, it was hard not to learn a bit about the Icelandic krona over the past week.   The krona pays a high interest rate, you see - enabling Iceland to attract the …

January 30, 2006

Emerging Markets
It is hard to bet on curve flattening when the curve is already flat

Or spread compression when spreads have already compressed. As David Altig kindly noted, I was quoted in Clint Riley's Wall Street Journal story about the impact of a flat yield curve on bank ear…

October 10, 2005

Economics
Kate-Moss-thin credit spreads

I never thought I would ever share space in an article with Kate Moss.   We do not exactly move in the same circles.  But William Pesek somehow found a connection - or a least a vivid metaphor. …