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September 23, 2004

United States
The currency strategist at Morgan Stanley might want to talk to the chief economist at Morgan Stanley

Steve Johnson’s market insight column in Thursday’s Financial Times keys off Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist Stephen Jen’s argument that "As long as Asia insists on staying inside this dollar ar…

December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
At last, some real evidence to back my argument on petrodollars

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has spoken; OPEC's dollar holdings are up and its euro holdings down. The prolific Steve Johnson in the Financial Times: Middle Eastern oil exporters…

April 30, 2006

Can the dollar block survive another bout of dollar weakness?

In case you haven't noticed, the dollar is now closer to 1.30 (v. the euro) than 1.20 - or even 1.15.  Carry is no longer king.   There is talk of a "regime change" in the fx market.  Or at least…

May 2, 2006

Financial Markets
And the money keeps rolling in …

To Russia. In 1998, Russia was very short on cash.  It went to the IMF and got a $15 billion credit line.  When it didn’t hold up its end of the bargain – taking steps to collect a bit of revenue – t…

October 11, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
W makes LBJ look like a fiscal conservative.

So says Jim Cramer. LBJ, to his credit, believed that there were limits to profligacy and that taxes had to be raised. Not President Bush. He's making Johnson look like a fiscal conservative, wha…

March 22, 2006

China
Stephen Roach is well worth reading today

Roach has access to a slightly higher level of policy makers than either the author - or I suspect most of the readers - of this blog.   Particularly in China.   He didn't learn of Wen's crit…

April 28, 2006

Why does China have a looser monetary policy than the United States?

We know why the global economy grew strongly in the first quarter.   Nothing changed.  Or rather, the basic pattern that has driven global growth for the past few years intensified.The US continued t…

December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
The yen, for a change

The yen's trajectory at the end of 2005 seems a bit like the dollar's trajectory at the end of 2004.   With the yen at 120, companies like Toyota presumably have little incentive to ramp up t…

May 27, 2006

Emerging Markets
Have emerging markets changed more than the markets?

Is the lesson of the most recent bout of turmoil in the emerging world “emerging market economies have changed, but the markets have not”?How have emerging economies changed since 1997, the last time…

June 25, 2006

Financial Markets
Only some emerging market currencies have corrected this year.

Emerging market economies with overvalued currencies now – generally speaking –have less overvalued currencies.   The Turkish lira was too strong at the beginning of the year.  Turkey’s current accou…