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August 1, 2005

China
Can China add close to $300 b to its reserves a year and have no impact on the bond market?

Rarely do I disagree with the premise of an article more than with the Mark Whitehouse  Friday C1  Wall Street Journal article "China's Move Makes No Waves in Bond Market." Premise.  China moved…

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

February 18, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
More borrowing, on the other hand, is always a political winner

Deficits really don’t matter, at least in some circlesBush said earlier this week that he would not rule out paying those transition costs by raising the current wage cap of $90,000 that can be taxed…

August 11, 2005

China
China’s economy in 2005 is not what it was in 2000

China always has depended on export-led growth.   It is a core reason why China has been so successful.  China is just trying to hold on to the core of its success in the face of political pressure f…

Exports to GDP

June 16, 2005

Economics
A global savings glut, a global housing market bubble?

Alan Greenspan says there is no national bubble, just pockets of local froth. Or to the housing sector’s in house economists, just a few healthy suds floating on top of a healthy market. Then again,…

September 1, 2005

Economics
Some thoughts on Katrina and the economy

I understand the reasoning behind the standard argument that big storms have less impact on an economy - particularly a large and diverse economy - than one would expect looking at the scale of the d…

August 22, 2005

Capital Flows
The Wall Street Journal oped’s page idea of a “serious” policy on Iran …

Is to keep Iran out of the World Cup (see Monday's Wall Street Journal).    That is serious?Moscow's boycott of the Los Angeles Olympics had such a profound impact on US policy ... How about …

September 16, 2005

United States
The q2 current account deficit and global adjustment

Some days are marked by a surplus of good material.   The TIC data.  The second quarter current account data.  DeLong's magnus opus on what the great and good talked about on the margins of Jacks…

October 17, 2005

China
The US government has no idea what China intends to do with its exchange rate …

This Financial Times articles by Andrew Balls and Richard McGregor is worth reading.  It makes two key points:1. China did not give the US any hints what it plans to do next with its currency next.  …

January 17, 2006

United States
Where is the trade deficit heading? How I differ from Justin Lahart (and a few others)

Justin Lahart (of the Wall Street Journal's Ahead of the Tape column) correctly called the fall in the monthly trade deficit last Thursday. But he - channeling Jim Griffin of ING investment manag…