430 Results for:

May 26, 2006

Do China’s fast growing dollar reserves guarantee a sound banking system?

One common argument about China that I never have fully understood is that China’s banks are OK because China has tons of dollar reserves. It is implicit in this statement by the (very good) Richar…

May 31, 2006

Interesting recent work on China

Chinese stock markets have not been as frothy as the Chinese economy – though the Chinese market is doing better in 2006 than it has for a long time.  But what doesn’t go up as fast also doesn’t nece…

June 27, 2006

United States
A soft landing means sustained $1 trillion plus (7% of GDP) current account deficits …

Over the past few years, US imports have grown faster than US exports.  The result -- to no one surprise: an expanding trade deficit.    Because of the gap between imports and exports, US exports nee…


August 16, 2006

PIMCO is betting on the continuation of Bretton Woods 2

At least that is how I read the latest Paul McCulley/ Andrew Balls paper.   By the way, Andrew Balls, welcome to the world of financial opinion journalism … otherwise known as economic analysis and m…

September 25, 2006

Richard McGregor on China’s (huge) reserves

The one trillion dollar mark is a perfect hook.  Richard McGregor's excellent story in today's FT is the first of no doubt many stories on China’s phenomenal stockpile of reserves. M…

October 13, 2006

Not quite a trillion

China comes close, but doesn’t quite get the cigar.    $987.9b is not $1,0000b.But China should hit a trillion in October.   China's monthly trade surplus has topped $15b for the last two months…

October 17, 2006

A trillion dollars here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money

I have written extensively about China and Chinese reserve growth recently. So I won’t use Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal article as the spring board for another long post.  Just a sort of long post.T…

October 19, 2006

Monetary Policy
Richard McGregor helps to solve the mystery of China’s slow q3 reserve growth.

The increase in China’s q3 reserves was about $30b below my expectations.  China’s current account surplus is usually about $15b per quarter larger than its trade surplus, and net FDI inflows have be…

October 30, 2006

Financial Markets
Can David Rosenberg out-Roubini Roubini?

Nouriel “If you are going to be a bear, might as well be a grizzy” Roubini has a bit of competition.  Merrill’s David Rosenberg now puts the odds of a recession at up to 80% “HSBC, US Bank ... now pe…

November 2, 2006

United States
Could a US recession keep the US income balance from deteriorating …

Richard Iley of BNP Paribas thinks so.    In a comment to a post earlier this week, he noted that BNP Paribas was as bearish as Merrill – and that falling US rates and falling returns on foreign dire…