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August 16, 2006

Economics
PIMCO is betting on the continuation of Bretton Woods 2

At least that is how I read the latest Paul McCulley/ Andrew Balls paper.   By the way, Andrew Balls, welcome to the world of financial opinion journalism … otherwise known as economic analysis and m…

March 30, 2006

United States
Read Barry Eichengreen

Eichengreen provides the best summary I have seen of competing views on the sustainability of large US trade deficits, along with the impact of sustained trade deficts on US external debt and the inv…

October 30, 2006

Financial Markets
Can David Rosenberg out-Roubini Roubini?

Nouriel “If you are going to be a bear, might as well be a grizzy” Roubini has a bit of competition.  Merrill’s David Rosenberg now puts the odds of a recession at up to 80% “HSBC, US Bank ... now pe…

October 17, 2006

China
A trillion dollars here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money

I have written extensively about China and Chinese reserve growth recently. So I won’t use Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal article as the spring board for another long post.  Just a sort of long post.T…

November 27, 2006

Monetary Policy
Stephen Jen: only 60% of China’s reserves are in dollars.

Stephen Jen sometimes says the darnedest things.  Not about currencies.   But about reserves. His estimates for oil reserve growth have been consistently on the low side.   Norway, the UAE and Kuwait…

November 15, 2006

China
Rising private Chinese purchases of US debt …

Yes, that is a new topic. But private Chinese demand for US debt seem to be rising.   The World Bank Quarterly Update reported – drawing on Chinese data -- that “Chinese individuals and institution…

November 2, 2006

United States
Could a US recession keep the US income balance from deteriorating …

Richard Iley of BNP Paribas thinks so.    In a comment to a post earlier this week, he noted that BNP Paribas was as bearish as Merrill – and that falling US rates and falling returns on foreign dire…

iley1_01

October 13, 2006

China
Not quite a trillion

China comes close, but doesn’t quite get the cigar.    $987.9b is not $1,0000b.But China should hit a trillion in October.   China's monthly trade surplus has topped $15b for the last two months…

January 20, 2007

China
China considering new ways of managing its foreign assets

That, at least, is how I read Premier Wen's statement at the Party's financial work conference.  Wen:China [will] take "comprehensive measures" to attain balance in its external payments whil…

January 5, 2007

United States
It may take more than strong growth abroad to bring the US trade deficit down …

There is a lot of talk now about how stronger growth outside the US (along with somewhat slower US growth) will bring the trade deficit down.    See among others Justin Lahart’s column in Thursday&#3…

bilateral_balances