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October 6, 2004

Capital Flows
Cheney is wrong: $80 billion in debt relief if not equal to $80 billion in cash

Last night, Vice President Cheney claimed that US allies were contributing $80 billion to the war in Iraq by providing Iraq with debt relief. He compared this $80 billion in debt relief to the cash …

November 7, 2004

United States
Updated paper on the sustainablility of US trade and current account deficits

Nouriel and I have just posted our updated analysis of US external sustainability, i.e. the United States capacity to continue to run large trade and current account deficits.The paper is certainly l…

April 18, 2005

Financial Markets
Tactical Issue Linkages

Dan Drezner has an interesting post up, laying out the components of a "serious" approach to encouraging (or pressuring) China to change its exchange rate peg. He nicely lays out the options, thoug…

March 4, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Undisputed Unaffordability

That is a phrase from the Washington Post’s oped on Social Security.I think it goes a bit too far, so I want to dispute the "undisputed unaffordability" of Social Security.I do not dispute that there…

May 30, 2005

United States
Memo to Kirstof: China has some responsibility for global imbalances too

Nick Kristof accuses the US -- Democrats in Congress in particular -- of scapegoating China, and blaming China for global economic problems (more accurately, the risk of global economic problems) tha…

February 18, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
More borrowing, on the other hand, is always a political winner

Deficits really don’t matter, at least in some circlesBush said earlier this week that he would not rule out paying those transition costs by raising the current wage cap of $90,000 that can be taxed…

August 3, 2005

Monetary Policy
Are US companies to Bretton Woods 2 …

What gold was to Bretton Woods 1?In the post war Bretton Woods system, the dollar was - at least in principle - fully convertible into gold at a fixed rate.   In practice, after a certain point in th…

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

August 1, 2005

China
Can China add close to $300 b to its reserves a year and have no impact on the bond market?

Rarely do I disagree with the premise of an article more than with the Mark Whitehouse  Friday C1  Wall Street Journal article "China's Move Makes No Waves in Bond Market." Premise.  China moved…

August 11, 2005

China
China’s economy in 2005 is not what it was in 2000

China always has depended on export-led growth.   It is a core reason why China has been so successful.  China is just trying to hold on to the core of its success in the face of political pressure f…

Exports to GDP