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October 6, 2004

Capital Flows
Cheney is wrong: $80 billion in debt relief if not equal to $80 billion in cash

Last night, Vice President Cheney claimed that US allies were contributing $80 billion to the war in Iraq by providing Iraq with debt relief. He compared this $80 billion in debt relief to the cash …

October 20, 2004

Capital Flows
The IMF staff report on Iraq is a goldmine

I don’t expect many journalists will delve into it, but the IMF staff report on Iraq is a fountain of information. My favorite number: in 2004, the amount Iraq will spend importing (yes, importing) …

November 7, 2004

United States
Updated paper on the sustainablility of US trade and current account deficits

Nouriel and I have just posted our updated analysis of US external sustainability, i.e. the United States capacity to continue to run large trade and current account deficits.The paper is certainly l…

December 10, 2004

Emerging Markets
Why Argentina should do its bond exchange, ASAP

Yields on Latin American bonds have not been this low for a long time. It is hard to believe that Brazil’s 20 year dollar bond trades at a yield of only 8%, and most long-term Brazilian bonds are in …

January 2, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two Lives

The Fed has started to tighten, Greenspan said anyone who has not hedged their interest rate risk desires to lose money. Yet higher short-term rates have not led to higher long-term rates. In the j…

January 15, 2005

Economics
Latest speech of FRBNY President Tim Geithner

I pay a certain amount of attention to what New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner has to say just because he was my boss at the Treasury and the IMF (noted in the spirit of full blog disclo…

February 14, 2005

United States
How long will the world keep on financing the US: my new paper with Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel and I went out on a bit of a limb in this paper. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has rallied and yields on the ten-year and thirty year treasury bond have fallen: both market mov…

April 18, 2005

Financial Markets
Tactical Issue Linkages

Dan Drezner has an interesting post up, laying out the components of a "serious" approach to encouraging (or pressuring) China to change its exchange rate peg. He nicely lays out the options, thoug…

April 23, 2005

Economics
A glass half empty, in three different ways

It seems to me that there are three big risks - the result of what economists like to call imbalances -- hanging over the global economy, even leaving aside the possibility of an old fashioned oil su…

April 15, 2005

Emerging Markets
Large players in large markets, part two

Brad DeLong is rather skilled at squeezing the fat off a post, and then creating something that is sharper, more succinct and often far better than the initial post. I know. He does it to me every n…