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November 6, 2004

Will Japan be able to stay on the sidelines for long?

Some facts: 1) In 2003, Japan increased its reserves by $200 billion, emerging Asia by $245 billion. The world as whole increased its reserves by $500 billion, so Asia accounted for most of the worl…

November 12, 2004

Capital Flows
Geopolitics of a new G-7

There is a growing sense that the G-7 no longer is the right grouping for discussing today’s major international macroeconomic issues. It is hard to see, for example, how you can discuss "global reb…

November 30, 2004

Emerging Markets
Just because one dollar currently buys something like a million and half Turkish lira …

That does not necessarily mean the Turkish lira is cheap. Right now, given Turkey’s almost US scale current account deficit (close to 5% of GDP), the lira probably is a bit overvalued. Turkey is go…

December 18, 2004

The world’s two most distorted prices …

My nominations.The renminbi-dollar at 8.28 renminbi per dollar -- a price that puts China’s per capita income at around, only a bit above Iraq’s per capita income. The ten year US government treasury…

November 23, 2004

The budget deficit before all the bad stuff

Isn’t that what leaving any increase in deficit associated with partial privatization of social security off the books implies?Bush’s formula on the dollar in Santiago emphasized the need to control …

December 29, 2004

If you cannot beat em, join em

Daniel Gross’s article on the currency preferences of the world’s underworld is too good not to link to. It seems like the world’s drug lords are less willing than the People’s Bank of China to fina…

April 18, 2005

Financial Markets
Tactical Issue Linkages

Dan Drezner has an interesting post up, laying out the components of a "serious" approach to encouraging (or pressuring) China to change its exchange rate peg. He nicely lays out the options, thoug…

April 11, 2005

United States
Skating on incredibly thin ice

Altogether, the circumstances seem to be as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness o…

April 29, 2005

Emerging Markets
China Trip Report

Nouriel and I put pen to paper and laid out our take on China. Our paper reflects on the trip we took there last month, along with the reading we did to prepare for the trip. There is nothing new her…

June 21, 2005

Emerging Markets
Fantasy based opeds in the Wall Street Journal

The Wall Street Journal oped page clearly has discovered the joys of post-modernism. Facts are a social construction -- and inconvenient facts can be changed to fit your preferred narrative.That is…