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November 18, 2004

Taking away the punch bowl when the party is really getting going?

That is the classic view of the role of the central bank. It extends beyond using monetary policy to prevent "overheating" and price inflation. Most central bank regulate the banking system, and si…

April 28, 2005

United States
Central banks, cheerleaders and paper losses

This week’s Economist looks at the "paper" losses that central banks issuing local currency (or selling local currency debt) to buy foreign exchange reserves would incur in the event of the revaluati…

June 23, 2005

United States
How does the Fed imagine the US current account deficit will adjust?

Greenspan does not think a revaluation of the RMB would have a major impact on the US trade balance.The Fed does not think that reducing the fiscal deficit would generate a major reduction in the cur…

January 27, 2006

United States
Imports surge, GDP and exports don’t …

The market thinks that the (bad) q4 GDP number is old news; the economy is looking far better in q1.   The market is also banking on stronger export growth to help support US growth in 2006.  See Jus…

March 5, 2006

Financial Markets
Subsidized both by the Chinese government and the US government …

I am talking about housing, of course.  And it seems everyone else is too.   Starting with the New York Times Magazine.    No wonder.   Everyone wants to know what will happen to real estate prices…