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November 19, 2004

Greenspan in the news

Alan Greenspan’s comments on the US twin deficits are getting lots of play. Just saying that at some point foreign appetite for US assets is likely to diminish and won’t stay at its current strong p…

February 8, 2005

Chairman Greenspan: Do Not Worry, Be Happy

The Chairman gave policy makers a green light not to worry about the US current account deficit: the dollar’s existing fall will lead the deficit to turn around. The Chairman’s remarks also seem to …

July 18, 2005

China
If your reserves are growing by $300 billion a year

China indicated its reserves have increased to $711 billion at the end of June -- up $101 billion from the end of December 2004. Actually, they are up more than that. China transferred $15 billion …

December 19, 2005

China
The Chinese conundrum: External (financial) strength, domestic (financial) weakness

I disagree with Michael Mandel on the US current account deficit - I think it is a concern, he doesn't.  We also disagree on the US fiscal deficit.   He doesn't think it is a big problem; I d…

January 5, 2006

China
Chinese Sterilization Watch

Three things to watch closely in 2006:The size of China's reserve increase.   Some say it is falling back from its recent $20 b or so monthly pace.  I am not convinced.   The amount of sterilizat…

January 6, 2006

Monetary Policy
Read Andrew Balls and Geoff Dyer on Chinese reserve management

I strongly recommend the latest by Balls (in DC) and Dyer (in Shanghai). It covers both sides of the "does China's reserve management matter" debate.  But it gets two key points absolutely right:…

February 22, 2006

United States
Shrinking dark matter watch

Or maybe shifting dark matter watch. Via Barry Ritholtz comes news that increasing US investment (according to Mandel) in one key intangible asset - US brands - may be yielding diminishing returns.  …

February 25, 2006

China
Is China’s peg creating more problems than benefits for China?

 Stephen "current account deficits don't matter, at least not in the dollar zone" Jen is starting to sound a bit like Brad "Doom and Gloom caucus, trade deficit division" Setser. At least on Chin…

February 28, 2006

China
Read Richard McGregor’s FT article on China

I follow the data coming out of China pretty closely, at least for someone whose linguistic limitations crimp any long-term ambitions to be a professional China Watcher.     Not every article on Chin…

April 7, 2006

Financial Markets
Reality-based analysis of the oil exporters’ contribution to an unbalanced world

I am not a big fan of arguments not well grounded in data.Like the now immensely outdated argument that China's bilateral surplus with the US is offset by bilateral deficits elsewhere.   Right no…

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