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March 9, 2005

Monetary Policy
Reserve accumulation and the financing of the February US trade deficit

The dollar is under a bit of pressure today. The renminbi keeps falling too. The logic behind China’s tight peg to the dollar continues to elude me. The US dollar needs to depreciate as part of an…

May 12, 2005

United States
The sustainability of the current account deficit, once again

The market seems to have concluded that there is no need to put any pressure on the US to reduce its large external deficits. The dollar is up, at least against the euro. So is the renminbi for th…

July 12, 2005

United States
Don’t worry, be happy. Trade deficits do not matter so long as US household wealth is rising

Michael Mandel thinks I am making a big mistake, albeit a very, very common one - worrying about rising US external debt rather than celebrating rising US household wealth. Brad is making the very…

July 18, 2005

China
If your reserves are growing by $300 billion a year

China indicated its reserves have increased to $711 billion at the end of June -- up $101 billion from the end of December 2004. Actually, they are up more than that. China transferred $15 billion …

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

July 27, 2005

China
Forget Unocal. China really wants Intel

At least that is what "John Rutledge, a former economic adviser to President Bush" thinks.  To maintain its competitive advantage, Chinese companies must acquire technology that will make the country…

August 1, 2005

China
Summarizing China in one paragraph …

is hard, but James McGregor gave it a go in the Sunday Washington Post: It is difficult to overstate the transformation that has swept China in the past 15 years. To frame it in terms of comparable h…

August 19, 2005

China
Comments on Dooley, Garber and Folkerts-Landau: part 1, China

As usual, Michael Dooley, Peter Garber and David Folkerts-Landau are provocative. And in a lot areas, the arguments made by those - like Dooley, Garber and Folkerts-Landau -- who argue that the Brett…

China Reserves Graph

September 16, 2005

Economics
Happy (late) blog birthday

It has been a bit over a year since I started doing this.   I did not anticipate the blog would generate half the audience it has.   I often have focused on relatively obscure topics: the global bala…

November 17, 2005

China
Can the Pentagon balance Chinese power …

with money the Treasury borrows from China?  Ok, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia ... The answer so far has been yes.   The Pentagon - or at least influential voices in the Pentagon - want to discoura…