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July 17, 2018

Nuclear Weapons
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters ‘No First Use’ and Nuclear Weapons

Nearly all nuclear weapon states, as a matter of policy, remain ready to use their weapons without having first suffered a nuclear attack.

July 16, 2018

Puerto Rico
Looking Back on Fiscal 2018 as Puerto Rico Starts a New Fiscal Year Looking Back on Fiscal 2018 as Puerto Rico Starts a New Fiscal Year

Sales tax revenues have recovered. Fiscal year 2019, which started in July, should be a good year thanks to Federal disaster aid. The real question though is what happens when Federal aid starts to f…

July 10, 2018

China
My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies

This one is for my currency trading friends...

July 9, 2018

Russia
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin talk during the family photo session at the APEC Summit in Danang, Vietnam November 11, 2017. Will Energy Be Part of the U.S.-Russia Helsinki Summit?

Navigating the geopolitical domain surrounding energy is always difficult, but in the lead-up to the U.S.-Russia summit in Helsinki, it is particularly complex. While energy is unlikely to be a first…

July 2, 2018

China
Devaluation Risk Makes China’s Balance of Payments Interesting (Again) Devaluation Risk Makes China’s Balance of Payments Interesting (Again)

A deep dive into the details of China's balance of payments over the last few quarters of data. During the dollar's depreciation in 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, it looks like China was adding …

June 27, 2018

Mexico
Alan Ortega/Reuters Is Political Change Coming to Mexico?

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will likely become Mexico’s next president at a time of mounting concern over corruption and violence, but his reform plans are hazy.

June 26, 2018

Monetary Policy
Global Monetary Policy Divergence and the Reemergence of Global Imbalances

To minimize the risk of greater global imbalances, U.S. policymakers should rethink U.S. fiscal policy and focus on the transatlantic imbalances, not the bilateral trade deficit with China.

June 25, 2018

China
The Right and the Wrong Ways to Adjust the U.S.-China Trade Balance The Right and the Wrong Ways to Adjust the U.S.-China Trade Balance

The best way of painting a more accurate picture of the economic relationship between China and the U.S.? Add in data on U.S. exports to Hong Kong.

June 25, 2018

Southeast Asia
Mahathir-Abe_6.12.2018 After the Big Win, Mahathir Faces Reality—Part Two

In my previous post, I discussed how, after a surprising victory in May elections, and jubilation among supporters of the former opposition coalition that they had finally broken through, ending the …

June 25, 2018

United States
Is the Fall in Foreign Treasury Holdings a Trump Dump? Is the Fall in Foreign Treasury Holdings a Trump Dump?

“In the age of Trump,” warned a Bloomberg op-ed last year, “America’s biggest foreign creditors are suddenly having second thoughts about financing the U.S. government.” Today, with Trump piling …