Overview Al-Qaeda remains committed to striking the United States, but its capacity has been limited by counterterrorism efforts and so might work with or through associated Pakistani outfits to l…

Overview Iraq is currently in the early stages of a negotiated end to an intense ethnosectarian war. As such, there are several contingencies in which recent, mostly positive trends in Iraq could …

Overview Israel would regard any expansion of nuclear weapons capability within its region as an intolerable threat to its survival. As such, Iran's developing nuclear program has triggered seriou…

Overview In October 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Ukraine. Read the update. Ukraine continues to face internal political turmoil and tense rela…

Overview Egypt is now entering a period of political transition with the expectation that President Hosni Mubarak's almost twenty-eight-year tenure will shortly come to an end. The transition will…