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November 30, 2007

Financial Markets
Is the dollar’s decline over?

The Economist put the dollar on its cover this week.   The Economist’s cover is usually a lagging, not a leading, indicator:  it signals that the dollar already has fallen significantly, and sometime…

December 3, 2007

Should China buy Countrywide?

Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen seems to think so.  He writes in his most recent (and very wide ranging) note: “We all know that SWFs [sovereign wealth funds] will have a very difficult time in the futu…

December 5, 2007

Competition — and coordination — within the Chinese state as China goes forth

Today’s Financial Times has an important article by Geoff Dyer and Sundeep Tucker examining the overseas expansion of Chinese companies in general, and Chinese state companies in particular.  It is a…

December 10, 2007

The search for China’s missing foreign assets …

Yesterday I noted the remarkable slowdown in China’s reserve growth over the last few months.     Chinese reserve growth over the last three months – after adjusting for estimated valuation gains -- …


December 19, 2007

The alliance between China’s (nominally) communist government and Wall Street deepens …

The China investment corporation (the CIC) is investing $5b in Morgan Stanley, taking a 9.9% stake.That is a bit of a surprise, at least to me.   After the CIC's (mark to market) losses on Blacks…

January 6, 2008

Looking back at the top macroeconomic and financial stories of 2007, and looking forward to 2008

Here is my list of the top five stories of 2007 - and some things that I’ll be watching in 2008. What did I miss?1. The "subprime" crisis. The credibility of Wall Street’s financial engineering …

April 6, 2008

Financial Markets
A RMB that isn’t appreciating cannot be killing you …

The premise of Joe Nocera’s New York Times story “Two factories, two firms” is logical enough: an appreciating RMB should hurt a low-end, cost-conscious textile exporter and help a higher-end manufac…

April 6, 2008

Financial Markets
Just how much money do sovereign wealth funds have?

A ton, according to Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen and a host of Wall Street investment banks Not all that much, according to Milken Institute’s Christopher Balding (as reported by Bob Davis in the Wa…


April 24, 2008

Capital Flows
Adapting to the state’s growing role in global equity markets

Central bank purchases of traditional reserve assets still dwarf sovereign wealth fund purchases of riskier assets -- as well as central bank purchases of equities. But over time, it is reasonable …

April 27, 2008

What keeps Zhou Xiaochuan up at night

Friday’s Lex column highlighted the possibility that China’s real reserve growth may be far higher than the published increase in its reserves – and thus a lot more hot money may be flowing into Chin…