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September 23, 2004

United States
The currency strategist at Morgan Stanley might want to talk to the chief economist at Morgan Stanley

Steve Johnson’s market insight column in Thursday’s Financial Times keys off Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist Stephen Jen’s argument that "As long as Asia insists on staying inside this dollar ar…

January 8, 2005

Has the broad dollar fallen enough

A standard rule of thumb, mentioned by Paul Blustein in his excellent look at the impact of a falling dollar on US trade last week, is that a 10% fall in the broad dollar leads to a $100 billion fall…

October 14, 2004

United States
Another month, another bad trade number

The latest monthly trade data came out today, and was worse than expected -- though in my view that indicates expectations have yet to catch up with reality. Exports have been stuck in the $95-96 bi…

December 19, 2004

Plaza, or Louvre?

The 1985 Plaza accord sought to drive the dollar down; the 1987 Louvre sought to keep the dollar from falling further. There is growing talk of a new Plaza in the US -- though not in the circles tha…

November 19, 2004

Greenspan, part II

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan was careful to frame the risk created by rising US external debt for foreigners investing in the US (and in the process financing the US current account …

February 14, 2005

United States
How long will the world keep on financing the US: my new paper with Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel and I went out on a bit of a limb in this paper. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has rallied and yields on the ten-year and thirty year treasury bond have fallen: both market mov…

November 30, 2004

United States
Their savings, our problem?

It seems like American households are now saving about a penny of every dollar they earn, and recently even less. Foreigners exporting to the US, in contrast, save roughly 35 cents of every dollar …

December 18, 2004

The October trade data was really bad …

I missed the actual release, but it is worth noting that the "guts" of the October trade data are rather discouraging. Forget the headline number: we knew it would be bad because of oil. Look at wh…

November 18, 2004

Is it the currency of John Snow and the problem of everyone else?

That headline draws on a nice quote from Steve Barrow of Bear Stearns. It paraphrases the famous saying about the dollar -- I think from Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connally -- "it is our curren…

November 23, 2004

The budget deficit before all the bad stuff

Isn’t that what leaving any increase in deficit associated with partial privatization of social security off the books implies?Bush’s formula on the dollar in Santiago emphasized the need to control …