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December 6, 2004

Financial Markets
Surprise, Surprise: the Treasury waited til December to clear China of currency manipulation

It looks like John Snow did Andy Card one last favor before stepping aside: late on Friday, the Treasury quietly issued the annual foreign currency report. To no one’s surprise, the report declared …

January 10, 2005

United States
Apparently, like budget deficits, trade deficits do not matter anymore

Kevin Drum brought the latest National Review "trade deficits do not matter" article to my attention today. I learned a few things, namely that Steven Roach is part of a media misinformation campaig…

December 29, 2004

United States
Look who is supporting the mortgage market …

No Surprise: the People’s Bank of China. The PBOC has shifted from buying treasuries (03) to buying mortgage backed securities (04).From Reuters: "Make no bones about it, mortgages really went globa…

September 4, 2005

If it is still a dollar peg, where is the monetary policy flexiblity?

I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…

February 14, 2006

United States
Not a current account deficit. A capital account surplus.

Nouriel has already commented on the Economic Report of the President.    He didn't exactly like its international chapter.  It didn't rub me the wrong way quite as strongly - in part because…

July 6, 2006

Variations on 7.99

7.992 7.9955 7.996 Anyone detect a pattern?    China’s de facto dollar peg seems to be around 7.99. At least for now.  I haven’t written much about China recently because nothing much seems…

September 4, 2006

Let me turn the Labor day microphone over to those (closet) radicals at PIMCO

Corporate profits as a share of GDP are at a half-century high, while real wages are struggling to stay above the zero line. Make no mistake, …  this recovery has been a boom for capital, not for lab…

December 2, 2006

Financial Markets
Good reading on the dollar’s recent move

I have on occasion been critical of the Economist’s coverage, particularly its emphasis on Chinese consumption growth rather than Chinese export growth.  But I should also give credit where credit is…

June 19, 2007

Monetary Policy
Sovereign Wealth Funds are sexy, but the real story right now comes from plain old central bank reserves …

Everyone now wants to talk about sovereign wealth funds, both how big they will become and how they will (or will not) impact a range of markets.  I tend to agree with Tony Tassel and Joanna Chung of…

June 19, 2007

Monetary Policy
The T-Bill conundrum

10 year Treasuries -- and other long-dated Treasury notes -- usually yield more than short-term instruments.   One widely cited explanation for the fact that until recently longer-term rates were wel…