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November 9, 2018

China
Selling U.S. China Policy

Vice President Mike Pence’s October 4 speech on China, which many commentators have referred to as the administration’s defining China moment, was a leaden litany of Chinese vices and a hyped-up asse…

US-China meeting

November 8, 2019

Cybersecurity
Cyber Week in Review: November 8, 2019

Twitter suspends terrorist group accounts, backtracking from former exceptions; Russia strives for sovereign internet with uncertain future; The United States and Taiwan hold first joint cyberwar exe…

People watch a live broadcast of India's second lunar mission, Chandrayaan-2, inside an electronics showroom in Kolkata, India, July 22, 2019.

October 18, 2019

Election 2020
Foreign Policy Roundup: The Democratic Debate, Trade Policy, and the Iran Nuclear Deal

Each Friday, I look at what the presidential challengers are saying about foreign policy on the campaign trail.

Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren debate during the fourth U.S. Democratic presidential candidates 2020 election debate in Westerville, Ohio, U.S., October 15, 2019. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

October 15, 2019

Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?

Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …

treasury fx intervention taiwan 4

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

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October 8, 2019

Iran
1970s Oil Crisis Redux or Oil Price Rout?

It has been four weeks since a major military attack on critical oil facilities in Saudi Arabia shocked the world and very little has happened to suggest such an event couldn’t happen again. That beg…

Some Motorists Ran Out of Gas Such as This Man in Portland and Had to Stand in Line with a Gas Can During the Fuel Crisis in the Pacific Northwest.

October 8, 2019

Americas
Free Trade Is Expanding, Just Not With the U.S.

Deals forged by countries accounting for more than one-third of global output leave America on the outside.

Representatives of members of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal wave as they pose for an official picture after the signing agreement ceremony in Santiago, Chile March 8, 2018.

October 8, 2019

Taiwan
Could Taiwan’s Commercial Banks Cover the Lifers' Hedging Need? (Part 4)

Who is on the other side of the massive ($250 billion) hedging need of Taiwan's life insurance industry? The local banking system covers at most a quarter of the life insurers hedging need, and forei…

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October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

This is the third post in a series* on Taiwan's life insurers and their private & sovereign FX hedging counterparties. It’s the product of a collaboration with S.T.W**, a market participant and frien…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

Large-scale purchases of foreign bonds have become the central flow sustaining Taiwan’s massive current account surplus and keeping the Taiwan dollar weak. The size of this flow raises the question o…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)