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September 23, 2004

United States
The currency strategist at Morgan Stanley might want to talk to the chief economist at Morgan Stanley

Steve Johnson’s market insight column in Thursday’s Financial Times keys off Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist Stephen Jen’s argument that "As long as Asia insists on staying inside this dollar ar…

November 23, 2004

The budget deficit before all the bad stuff

Isn’t that what leaving any increase in deficit associated with partial privatization of social security off the books implies?Bush’s formula on the dollar in Santiago emphasized the need to control …

January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

October 11, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
W makes LBJ look like a fiscal conservative.

So says Jim Cramer. LBJ, to his credit, believed that there were limits to profligacy and that taxes had to be raised. Not President Bush. He's making Johnson look like a fiscal conservative, wha…

December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
At last, some real evidence to back my argument on petrodollars

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has spoken; OPEC's dollar holdings are up and its euro holdings down. The prolific Steve Johnson in the Financial Times: Middle Eastern oil exporters…

May 2, 2006

Financial Markets
And the money keeps rolling in …

To Russia. In 1998, Russia was very short on cash.  It went to the IMF and got a $15 billion credit line.  When it didn’t hold up its end of the bargain – taking steps to collect a bit of revenue – t…

April 30, 2006

Can the dollar block survive another bout of dollar weakness?

In case you haven't noticed, the dollar is now closer to 1.30 (v. the euro) than 1.20 - or even 1.15.  Carry is no longer king.   There is talk of a "regime change" in the fx market.  Or at least…

December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
The yen, for a change

The yen's trajectory at the end of 2005 seems a bit like the dollar's trajectory at the end of 2004.   With the yen at 120, companies like Toyota presumably have little incentive to ramp up t…

August 25, 2005

China
Who is the high-tech powerhouse?

Country A exports the following to B:1. Paper and paper waste 2. Mixed metal scrap 3. Fabrics and raw cotton 4. Newspapers 5. Foam waste and scrap 6. Logs and lumber 7. Wood pulp 8. Plastics 9. Froze…

March 22, 2006

China
Stephen Roach is well worth reading today

Roach has access to a slightly higher level of policy makers than either the author - or I suspect most of the readers - of this blog.   Particularly in China.   He didn't learn of Wen's crit…