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August 13, 2019

China
On Designating China as a Currency Manipulator…

China really did manipulate its currency before the global crisis.  It really doesn't do so now.   But how China's manages its currency still matters for the global economy.

On Designating China as a Currency Manipulator…

July 30, 2019

Economics
Summer Holiday

I am taking a few days off— If you are desperate for analysis of China’s balance of payments, I would recommend my disaggregation of China’s current account adjustment last year—and my analysis of…

March 5, 2019

China
Taking Managed Trade Seriously—What Would a Deal that Tries to Close the Bilateral Deficit Need to Look Like?

If Trump wants to set targets for China’s imports, he should focus on its imports of manufactures—not on getting tweetable deliverables out of the soybeans and oil that China will import (from someon…

Taking Managed Trade Seriously—What Would a Deal that Tries to Close the Bilateral Deficit Need to Look Like?

June 5, 2018

China
How Durable is China’s Rebalancing?

I increasingly suspect my view on Chinese “rebalancing” is at odds with the current consensus (or perhaps just with a plurality of the investment bank analysts and financial journalists who watch Chi…

How Durable is China’s Rebalancing?

May 11, 2018

Eurozone
Ireland Exports its Leprechaun

Irish tax distortions have a material impact on aggregate eurozone economic data.

Ireland Exports its Leprechaun

April 19, 2018

Puerto Rico
The Oversight Board’s Latest Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico is Still Too Optimistic

The power is off in Puerto Rico, again. It may not be restored for a day or two. Puerto Rico obviously has yet to fully recover from Maria’s devastation. Tax revenues this fiscal year are off by o…

The Oversight Board’s Latest Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico is Still Too Optimistic

February 21, 2018

Economics
World Economic Update

The World Economic Update highlights the quarter’s most important and emerging trends.

Play World Economic Update

September 22, 2016

Global
Education, Extremism, and Global Leadership: A Conversation with Tony Blair and Irina Bokova

Tony Blair and Irina Bokova discuss the role of education and civil society in preventing global extremism and raising awareness among governments.

Play Education_EC.jpg

February 20, 2016

Defense and Security
Evaluating Michael Hayden’s Defense of CIA Drone Strikes

Former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Gen. Michael Hayden has an op-ed in today’s New York Times: “To Keep America Safe, Embrace Drone Warfare.” The two-thousand-word piece provide…

Drone Dec 2015_edited