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January 11, 2005

Emerging Markets
Should the IMF ever take a haircut?

Before Argentina’s default, Adam Lerrick thought the IMF (or the G-7) should offer to buy Argentina’s bonds at 60 cents on the dollar. Argentina is now offering bondholders an exchange that will be …

April 5, 2005

Emerging Markets
How private investment in China (and other emerging economies) ends up financing the USA

The best thing the Institute of International Finance does is put together data on private capital flows to emerging economies.They just released their estimates for net private flows to the set of e…

November 12, 2004

Capital Flows
Geopolitics of a new G-7

There is a growing sense that the G-7 no longer is the right grouping for discussing today’s major international macroeconomic issues. It is hard to see, for example, how you can discuss "global reb…

March 9, 2005

Current account adjustment

A couple of quick thoughts on the Federal Reserve Board’s recent paper on current account adjustment.There are two broad paradigms or models for current account adjustment. One might be called the e…

May 8, 2005

Capital Flows
Is the balance of financial power shifting?

The IMF has about $200 billion that it can lend out. About $75 b is currently lent out, mostly to Brazil, Turkey and Argentina (data link), leaving a bit over $100 billion that could be lent out in …

November 30, 2004

Emerging Markets
Just because one dollar currently buys something like a million and half Turkish lira …

That does not necessarily mean the Turkish lira is cheap. Right now, given Turkey’s almost US scale current account deficit (close to 5% of GDP), the lira probably is a bit overvalued. Turkey is go…

March 29, 2005

China has about a quarter of the population of the world

So why shouldn’t the People’s Bank of China finance about a quarter of the US monthly trade deficit?China reported (informally) is January-February reserve accumulation -- $32.7 billion -- yesterday,…

March 31, 2005

Emerging Markets
What happened to Argentine banks in 2001? And why?

I suspect most people who read this blog are interested in the dollar, US interest rates, the trade balance, the "hard v. soft landing debate" (outsourced today to Kash at the Angry Bear), oil, even …

April 17, 2005

Economics
A few things Europe does (relatively) well

Some Europeans enjoy taking a few rhetorical pot shots at America every now and then. More and more Americans enjoy reciprocating.I suspect that US criticism of Europe will step up a gear in the nea…

February 26, 2005

Emerging Markets
Has Argentina changed the rules of the sovereign debt game?

Argentina is on the verge of completing one of the largest sovereign debt restructurings in history. Argentina is seeking to restructure about $82 billion in bonds, plus $21 billion or so in past d…