The outcome of party presidential primaries appears to signal the end of post-military elite political consensus. 

On March 9, the governor of Kano state removed Sanusi Lamido Sanusi from his position as Emir of Kano, which is usually regarded as the second or third most important Muslim traditional ruler in Nigeria, and an Islamic scholar. There is speculation, especially among some Nigerian expats, that he is looking to launch a political career, perhaps even contesting for the presidency in 2023.

Peter Obi’s ascendance appears to have ripped up the Igbo self-determination playbook.

Commentators, especially outside Nigeria, saw the elections of 2015 as an important milestone for the country’s democratic development breaking the pattern of rigged elections. However, could it be that it was the elections of 2011 that really broke the pattern, and the elections of 2015 merely restored it? Were in fact the elections of 2015 much better than those before and after? Did the political classes determine that Jonathan had to go, in part because of the deteriorating economy and security situation, but also understanding that the 1998–9 bargain struck between the south and the north be restored? Will the bargain survive in 2023? 

President Buhari returned to Nigeria on August 19 after over one-hundred days of medical leave in London. Various dignitaries gathered to greet him upon his arrival. The public aspect of President Bu…