August 10, 2011
In June 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Libya. Read the update.
Multiple threats to Libya's stability and public order could emerge if t…
August 25, 2011
Al-Qaeda remains committed to striking the United States, but its capacity has been limited by counterterrorism efforts and so might work with or through associated Pakistani outfits to l…
April 11, 2012
In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update.
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…
September 6, 2012
In March 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Venezuela. Read the update.
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant po…
August 9, 2012
Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Ir…
January 9, 2013
Kenya is at risk of repeating the violence that marred its 2007 presidential election, during which 1,133 died and nearly 600,000 were displaced from their homes. Political order in K…
April 22, 2013
Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…
May 15, 2013
In March 2016, the authors wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Jordan. Read the update.
Jordan has so far weathered the political storm that has engulfed…
April 16, 2014
As space systems increasingly perform and support critical operations, a variety of plausible near-term incidents in outer space could precipitate or exacerbate an international crisi…
April 9, 2014
Egypt is experiencing a deep economic crisis. The country's foreign currency reserves are less than half of what they were before the January 2011 uprising, threatening Egypt's abilit…