36 Results for:

September 18, 2005

United States
Synthetic CDOs, China and Systemic Risk

I suspect the stock of outstanding synthetic credit derivatives -- $ 1500 b in synthetic CDOs in 2004 v. $300 b or so in 2001, according to Mark Whitehouse of the Wall Street Journal -- is the only t…

December 30, 2005

Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

March 27, 2006

United States
Good thing Michael Mandel read my 2004 paper, not my 2005 paper -

With the 2004 paper on US external sustainability, there is at least some possibility that Nouriel's and my dire forecasts will prove to be right.   The core argument of that paper is that the co…

August 26, 2005

United States
Dollar crashes, interest rates fall?

Alan Greenspan's legacy may hinge on whether that headline is written, or whether the headline reads: "Dollar crashes, interest rates surge." From Reuters:Although a dollar crash is unlikely anyt…

February 10, 2014

International Organizations
Tracking Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan

This blog post was coauthored with my research associate, Amelia M. Wolf. Since the Afghanistan war began twelve years and four months ago, the fate of innocent civilians has been a constant focus o…

UNAMA Deaths by Force

July 5, 2015

Currencies Are Easy, Policies Are Hard

Now that Greek voters have voted “no” in the referendum, the government is engaged in a last-ditch effort to reach agreement with its creditors on policies and financing; if an agreement is not reach…


October 3, 2015

Kunduz Airstrike and Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan

This blog post updated an earlier post, and was again coauthored with my research associate, Amelia M. Wolf. Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported that its hospital in Kun…

Blog 1

August 1, 2016

Why Is The IMF Pushing Fiscal Consolidation in the Eurozone in 2017?

The eurozone collectively has a substantial external surplus, and its economy is operating below potential. In the framework set out in the IMF’s external balance assessment, that pretty clearly call…

August 29, 2016

Monetary Policy
Is The Dirty Little Secret of FX Intervention That It Works?

Foreign exchange intervention has long been one of those things that works better in practice than in theory.* Emerging markets worried about currency appreciation certainly seem to believe it wor…


November 22, 2016

United States
Fiscal Reflation in One Country

President-elect Trump wants to cut taxes and increase investment in U.S. infrastructure (or at least provide a tax break for existing infrastructure investment) and doesn’t seem especially worried if…