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June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

June 8, 2005

Economics
Greenspan’s conundrum and oil

The most profitable sector of the Chinese economy, according to data from UBS. Mining. It is not even close. I presume that includes mining for oil. Remember that. I will return to it in a bit.A…

June 17, 2005

Emerging Markets
Oil at $58. A bit on the global savings glut too

Oil closed above $58 a barrel on Friday. That’s kind of high. Kevin Drum nicely summarizes the range of explanations that have been put forward to explain oil’s recent rise. I tend to agree with h…

January 19, 2006

Financial Markets
The global flow of oil

The health of the US economy - and for that matter the world economy - hinges on the sustained flow of capital from the world's emerging economies to the US.   The health of the US economy also d…

March 12, 2006

Economics
Read Dan Gross on Globalization a la carte

As usual, Gross has a lot of smart things to say about limits on cross border investment in a no-longer-quite-so-flat world -- or what he calls globalization a la carte. Limits on cross-border invest…

December 18, 2005

Emerging Markets
First Brazil, now Argentina

Both Brazil and Argentina now want to repay the IMF before the end of the year.  Call it contagion of a different sort.  Turkey may not be far behind, given how much private money is now flooding int…

July 11, 2006

China
So, where is the rebalancing?

China flirted with the radical step of letting its exchange rate rise to …. 7.987 on Monday.    but apparently that was too much.   Yesterday, the exchange rate closed at 7.991, back in the PBoC’s co…

November 21, 2006

Financial Markets
Enough on China … let’s talk petrodollars

One thing consistently surprises me: how little most folks in the US markets – including folks active in international markets -- know about the growth in reserves of the oil exporters.    China, eve…

oil_surplus_1

February 25, 2007

Financial Markets
The cranes of Dubai. Are they the answer to Edward Hugh’s question?

I think anyone who visits Dubai right now is bound to be dumbstruck by the sheer scale of the construction.  It, quite honestly, puts anything I saw in China in early 2005 to shame.   To the naked ey…

May 11, 2007

United States
Rising deficit in the US; rising surplus in China

 The US released its March trade data yesterday.   The US trade deficit widened.   And as Menzie Chinn accurately notes, it wasn't just oil.   The non-oil deficit also widened.   Exports bounced …