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June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

June 8, 2005

Greenspan’s conundrum and oil

The most profitable sector of the Chinese economy, according to data from UBS. Mining. It is not even close. I presume that includes mining for oil. Remember that. I will return to it in a bit.A…

June 17, 2005

Emerging Markets
Oil at $58. A bit on the global savings glut too

Oil closed above $58 a barrel on Friday. That’s kind of high. Kevin Drum nicely summarizes the range of explanations that have been put forward to explain oil’s recent rise. I tend to agree with h…

January 19, 2006

Financial Markets
The global flow of oil

The health of the US economy - and for that matter the world economy - hinges on the sustained flow of capital from the world's emerging economies to the US.   The health of the US economy also d…

March 12, 2006

Read Dan Gross on Globalization a la carte

As usual, Gross has a lot of smart things to say about limits on cross border investment in a no-longer-quite-so-flat world -- or what he calls globalization a la carte. Limits on cross-border invest…

December 18, 2005

Emerging Markets
First Brazil, now Argentina

Both Brazil and Argentina now want to repay the IMF before the end of the year.  Call it contagion of a different sort.  Turkey may not be far behind, given how much private money is now flooding int…

July 11, 2006

So, where is the rebalancing?

China flirted with the radical step of letting its exchange rate rise to …. 7.987 on Monday.    but apparently that was too much.   Yesterday, the exchange rate closed at 7.991, back in the PBoC’s co…

March 3, 2005

Monetary Policy
One way to diversify your reserves: Buy Argentina!

Venezuela apparently is going to invest in Argentina’s restructured debt. Not quite your classic reserve asset.On the other hand, Malaysia lent Lebanon some money to bolster its reserve during Leban…

June 23, 2006

Financial Markets
Hmmm. Iran isn’t like other oil producing countries …

Iran has a bit more interest than average in nuclear power.    Setting Russia aside, of course. And Iran is actually spending its surging oil revenue rather than salting most of it away, unlike most …

November 21, 2006

Financial Markets
Enough on China … let’s talk petrodollars

One thing consistently surprises me: how little most folks in the US markets – including folks active in international markets -- know about the growth in reserves of the oil exporters.    China, eve…