July 11, 2017Fossil Fuels
The best single measure of the resilience of an oil- or gas-exporting economy in the face of swings in the global oil price is its external breakeven price: the oil price that covers its import bill…
May 24, 2017Technology and Innovation
On March 29 and 30, the Council on Foreign Relations convened a workshop in New York to explore how international cooperation can accelerate energy innovation. The workshop, hosted by Douglas Dillon …
March 15, 2017Greece
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that Greece and its creditors are again locked in a showdown over reforms, cash, and debt relief. Another cliff-hanger ahead of heavy July debt payments looks likely. Extend-and-pretend is a dead end for Greece and an increasingly populist Europe, and a more ambitious agreement seems ruled out by bailout fatigue in creditor countries. Markets are once again underestimating the risks of “Grexit.”
December 2, 2016Financial Markets
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that financial markets rallied following the U.S. election, on hopes that President-Elect Donald J. Trump’s fiscal stimulus and deregulation initiatives would spur corporate profits and growth. Perhaps so, but a strong case could be made for the opposite: that Trump’s economic agenda will prove disruptive to trade and growth, face growing headwinds in Congress, and exert a contractionary impact on the U.S. economy.
September 12, 2016G20 (Group of Twenty)
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that at the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Hangzhou, China, leaders called for governments to do more to support growth, but offered little in the way of new measures. Quietly, and away from the G20 spotlight, fiscal policy is becoming more expansionary, but current policies are unlikely to provide a meaningful boost to growth or soothe rising populist pressures.
June 13, 2016Fossil Fuels
CFR convened a workshop to explore what drives oil price volatility, what effects it has on the economy and geopolitics, and what policy options to reduce price volatility.
March 9, 2016Food and Water Security
Overview Global food prices have spiked several times in recent years, most notably in 2007–2008 and again in 2010–2011. A sharp increase in food prices, especially in staple grains such as corn, …
February 3, 2016Asia
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the idea of capital control is less radical than it seems; although comprehensive liberalization is theoretically the ideal option, capital controls may be China’s best chance to end the panic roiling global markets.