Pope Francis Calls For Negotiated End to War in Ukraine
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba pushed back against Francis’s use of the term “white flag,” saying Kyiv would not surrender; a Vatican spokesperson clarified that the pope was talking about negotiations (Politico)
ICC Issues Arrest Warrants for Two Top Russian Military Officials
The International Criminal Court (ICC) accused the senior officers of the war crimes of targeting civilians and destroying critical energy infrastructure (BBC)
This is the second time the court has issued arrest warrants related to Russia’s war in Ukraine; it ordered the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin last March (NYT)
Ukraine Destroys Russian Patrol Ship in the Black Sea
The attacks on Sergey Kotov, the sunken Russian vessel, were carried out by naval drones and allegedly killed seven Russian crew members, injuring six more (Kyiv Independent)
Zelenskyy Appoints New Support Forces Commander
The replacement in one of the Ukrainian military’s central formations is part of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plan to reshuffle his military leadership (Kyiv Independent)
Putin Says Western Troops in Ukraine Could Prompt Nuclear War
In his annual state of the nation address, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to launch nuclear weapons if Western countries send troops into Ukraine; he referenced French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments on Monday that such a Western troop deployment “cannot be ruled out” (CNN)
Current Western planning around the war in Ukraine “threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons,” Putin said; some Western officials distanced themselves from the prospect of such a troop deployment immediately after Macron’s comments (NYT)
Putin’s nuclear weapons threat took up the first few moments of a speech that also focused on economic issues and a roadmap for another six years in office ahead of elections scheduled for next month; he appears certain to be reelected, as most opposition and dissent have been quelled (FT)
Zelenskyy Meets With Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
The pair met in Riyadh yesterday to discuss Ukraine’s peace plan for the current war with Russia and the possible return of Ukrainian prisoners of war (AP)
Navalny Was Part of Talks Regarding a Prisoner Swap, Aides Say
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was on the verge of being traded in a prisoner swap before his death in Russian state custody this month, one of Navanly’s top aides said yesterday; she said the deal would have exchanged Navalny and two Americans imprisoned in Russia in exchange for a Russian man jailed in Germany for killing a former Chechen separatist in 2019 (AP)
An unnamed U.S. official familiar with the negotiations told the New York Times that such talks had not been in their final stages, but that “early discussions” had been underway (NYT)
Zelenskyy Says Thirty-One Thousand Ukrainian Troops Killed in War
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the first official death count for Ukraine yesterday in the two years since Russia invaded; unnamed U.S. officials told the New York Times last August that Ukraine’s death toll was likely close to seventy thousand, while Russia’s was around twice as high (NYT)
European leaders are gathering in Paris today to shore up support for Ukraine’s war effort, while U.S. President Joe Biden is due to discuss the matter with congressional leaders tomorrow (NYT)
UN Events, Fresh Sanctions Mark Two Years of Russia’s War in Ukraine
The UN General Assembly and Security Council are convening today to discuss Russia’s war in Ukraine ahead of its two-year anniversary tomorrow (Ukrainska Pravda)
Meanwhile, the United States and European Union announced hundreds of new sanctions today on Russia and foreign entities aiding Moscow’s war effort (AP)
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is in Ukraine today with a congressional delegation and is due to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reiterate U.S. support for Ukraine; the U.S. delegation believes “we can bring back a view and give great detail as to how Ukraine can win this war, if they’re given what they need,” Schumer said (NYT)
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron is due to hold a summit of European leaders on Monday to boost support for Ukraine (Reuters)
U.S., EU Prepare New Sanctions on Russia
The United States is planning new sanctions on the Russian government’s revenue sources and defense industrial base in response to the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny last week, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said yesterday (AP)
Meanwhile, European Union (EU) leaders reached a deal today on its next sanctions package on Russia over its war in Ukraine; the Financial Times reported the measures will target entities in mainland China and India for the first time (FT)
The plans for new Western sanctions come as the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion approaches on Saturday, and as Ukrainian forces calibrate next steps after withdrawing from the city of Avdiivka (Reuters)
Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to be captured or missing after the pullback, unnamed Western officials and Ukrainian troops told the New York Times; the Russian seizure of Avdiivka is seen as a significant symbolic loss for Ukraine and underscores the effect of faltering Western aid for Ukrainian defense efforts (NYT)
Sweden Announces New Military Support to Ukraine
Stockholm’s $682 million in new military support is its largest such package yet, which will include artillery shells, boats, and underwater weapons such as mines (AFP)
Ukraine to Sign Defense Pacts With France, Germany
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is visiting France and Germany today to sign security agreements with assurances regarding arms supplies and intelligence sharing (NYT)
The visits come a day before Zelenskyy is slated to appear at the Munich Security Conference and as Kyiv said it is shifting its positions in the embattled town of Avdiivka; U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the threat of a Russian advance in Avdiivka is “in very large part” because Ukrainian forces are “running out of artillery ammunition”(NYT)
Russian Prison Service Reports Death of Outspoken Opposition Leader Navalny
Opposition leader Alexei Navalny died today in a Russian prison, the prison service and Russian media reported; a lawyer for Navalny is traveling to the Arctic town where he was jailed in a maximum security prison to confirm the news, while the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin was notified of the death (FT)
Officials around the world immediately voiced statements of concern, including White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan who told NPR, “If it is confirmed, it is a terrible tragedy. And given the Russian government’s long and sordid history of doing harm to its opponents, it raises real and obvious questions about what happened here”(NPR)
The prison service said Navalny felt ill almost immediately after a walk today and lost consciousness; if the news is confirmed, Navalny’s chief of staff posted, “then it’s not ‘Navalny died,’ but ‘Putin killed Navalny’”(Reuters)
United States: Russia Developing Space-Based Nuclear Weapon
Although U.S. officials indicated that the weapon is far from being operational, they did state that the United States does not currently have the ability to combat such a weapon, which could dismantle military command-and-control operations by the United States and its allies; deployment of the weapon would also directly violate the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which bans orbital nuclear weapons (NYT)
Ukraine Claims Destruction of Russian Ship
The country’s navy said it destroyed a Russian ship in the Black Sea with attack drones; although Russia declined to comment on the claim, local social media channels showed reports of residents hearing explosions and seeing a ship on fire (FT)
NATO Leader Hails Rise in Defense Spending at Brussels Summit
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said today that he expects a record eighteen member countries to meet an alliance target of spending 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense this year; this would mark a sixfold increase from 2014, when the target was initially set (AP)
Russian Attack Significantly Damages Power Plant
The strikes hit a major city of Dnipro, forcing schools to close and a hospital to be evacuated, but no casualties were reported (Reuters)
U.S. Senate Passes $95.3 Billion Aid Bill for Israel, Taiwan, Ukraine
The bill was approved today by a vote of 70–29 after a rare overnight session of debate; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) worked closely on the legislation (AP)
Estonian Intelligence Flags Plan for Russian Security Buildup on NATO Border
Russia plans to double its number of troops stationed on its borders with the Baltic states and Finland in the coming years in preparation for possible conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the chief of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service said; Estonia plans to spend more than 3 percent of its GDP this year on defense, above NATO’s 2 percent requirement (FT)
Canadian Russian Pleads Guilty to Sending Technology to Russia
A Canadian Russian woman pleaded guilty in U.S. court to participating in a scheme to send electronic parts to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine; the actions violated export and sanctions laws, U.S. prosecutors said yesterday (CBC)
NATO, White House Push Back Against Trump Comment on Alliance
Former President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he would encourage Russia to do what it wants to NATO allies who do not contribute enough financially to the alliance; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that suggestions that allies will not defend each other “undermines all of our security,” while the White House called Trump’s comments “appalling” (Semafor)
The U.S. Senate, meanwhile, advanced an aid package for Israel and Ukraine worth more than $95 billion over the weekend, despite some Republican opposition (AP)
Ukraine Replaces Top Military Commander
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy elevated Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, who was previously commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, to the military’s top position yesterday in its biggest shakeup since Russia’s invasion began; Syrsky was credited with leading the defense of Kyiv in the first month of the war and a successful counteroffensive in the eastern city of Kharkiv in fall 2022 (NYT)
Zelenskyy said the military needed a change after two years of war; he also named five generals and two colonels he plans to promote (WaPo)
The leadership shift comes as both Ukraine and Russia calibrate their plans for a third year of war; Zelenskyy said that 2024 “can become successful for Ukraine only through effective changes in the basis of our defense” (CNBC)
Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for the United States to help “negotiate” an end to the war in an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson (NYT)
Russian Commission Bans Anti-War Candidate From Running Against Putin
Boris Nadezhdin, who opposes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is barred from contesting President Vladimir Putin in next month’s election, Russia’s Central Election Commission ruled; Nadezhdin said he had gathered more than two hundred thousand signatures in support of him appearing on the ballot, and he planned to appeal against today’s decision at Russia’s top court (FT)
Russian Missile Strike Kills at Least Five Civilians
The attack was spread across several major cities, including the capital city of Kyiv, where the residential building caught on fire (NYT)
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian parliament passed the first reading of a new mobilization bill to lower the minimum conscription age from twenty-seven to twenty-five and establish a fixed service period of thirty-six months (Kyiv Independent)
Russia Pauses Buying Bananas, Flowers From Ecuador Following Ukraine Arms Deal
Russia announced it is suspending its imports of the products following a deal between Ecuador and the United States to provide military equipment to Ukraine; some 90 percent of Russia’s banana imports come from Ecuador (AFP)