U.S. President Joe Biden said it was “premature” to call for a vote on Ukraine’s potential membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and that the alliance lacked unanimity about accepting Ukraine “in the middle of a war” (CNN)
Meanwhile, Russia’s and Turkey’s foreign ministers talked after the return of Ukrainian commanders to Ukraine from Turkey, which Russia said violated the terms of a prisoner swap (Reuters)
Zelenskyy Visits Snake Island on 500th Day of War in Ukraine
Zelensky posted a video thanking his soldiers from the island, which became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance early in the war when soldiers there refused to surrender to a Russian warship (BBC)
Meanwhile, a Russian strike in Lyman killed eight people and wounded thirteen (BBC)
United States to Send Cluster Bombs to Ukraine in $800 Million Security Package
Citing written assurance that Ukraine would use them carefully, U.S. officials said they deferred the move as long as possible but that the risk to civilians was greater if Ukraine ran out of ammunition and faced a renewed Russian offensive (Reuters)
U.S. allies including Canada, Spain, and the United Kingdom denounced the decision (BBC)
Lukashenko: Wagner Boss Prigozhin Still in Russia
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said that Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has been in Russia despite his agreement with the Kremlin to relocate to Belarus following Wagner’s failed mutiny last month; the Kremlin said that it does not keep track of Prigozhin’s movements (FT)
Meanwhile, a Russian airstrike in Lviv killed four and injured thirty-four, and Ukraine struck the Russian-occupied city of Makiivka (NYT;Reuters)
China Reportedly Warned Russia Against Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
Chinese President Xi Jinping personally warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine during Xi’s state visit to Moscow in March, unnamed Western and Chinese officials told the Financial Times (FT)
Meanwhile, tensions remain high over the precarious situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (Bloomberg)
Russia Accuses Ukraine of Moscow Drone Attack
The Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine deployed five drones and that there were no casualties, though it forced flights to divert from one of Moscow’s airports; Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the attack (BBC)
Russian MP: 700,000 Ukrainian Children Now in Russia
The head of Russia’s upper house of parliament claimed the children have taken refuge in Russia, while Ukraine said they have been forcibly deported (Reuters)
Russia also said local elections in occupied Ukrainian territory scheduled for September could be postponed if fighting intensifies (Reuters)
In Crimea, Russia claims to have foiled an assassination attempt on Sergei Aksyonov, the region’s leader (Reuters)
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s counteroffensive continued to make small gains as Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, said the war could become permanent (Guardian;Reuters)
Finally, Ukraine’s Patriot missiles have lessened Russia’s aerial dominance, but Zelenskyy called for upgraded air defenses as strikes continue to kill civilians across Ukraine (Forbes;France 24)
Ukraine Warns Russia Might Blow Up Zaporizhzhia Plant
Ukraine is holding disaster drills after officials warned that Russia had planted explosives around the nuclear power plant to prepare it for sabotage (ABC)
Russian Lawmaker: Wagner Group Will No Longer Fight in Ukraine
The lower house of parliament’s defense committee chair said Wagner would no longer receive state funding or fight in Ukraine after Yevgeny Prigozhin refused to sign contracts to bring the mercenaries under the control of the Russian defense ministry (Reuters)
Russian Strike on Kramatorsk Kills At Least Ten
A Russian strike on a popular pizza restaurant in the eastern city also wounded at least sixty-one, Ukraine’s National Police said (AP)
Russian Authorities Say Probe Into Uprising is Closed, Wagner Will Turn in Arms
Russia said it will close its investigation into the Wagner Group’s revolt and that the group was preparing to hand over its military equipment, which Wagner did not immediately confirm. In a speech yesterday, Putin said that Wagner fighters would be allowed to return home, join the Russian military, or go to neighboring Belarus (WaPo)
Meanwhile, Zelensky visited the frontline and claimed advances “in all sectors,” and Ukrainian troops reportedly crossed the Dnipro River in Kherson province, opening a new front in its counteroffensive (Guardian;Guardian)
Separately, Germany’s defense minister said yesterday that the country plans to permanently station around four thousand troops in Lithuania, and the United States plans to announce another $500 million military aid package for Ukraine (FT;Reuters)
Russian Media: Wagner Chief to Face Criminal Charges
Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the private military company Wagner Group, still faces armed insurrection charges following an attempted rebellion by Wagner fighters over the weekend, according to Russian state media; the news contradicts a previous Kremlin statement that the charges would be dropped (Politico)
Russia’s military released a video of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visiting Russian troops at an unknown location, and the Kremlin said that Russian President Vladimir Putin held calls with the leaders of Iran and Qatar, who voiced support for his decisions on the matter (FT)
Western leaders held talks after the weekend’s events, with European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell saying the rebellion showed that the “war against Ukraine is cracking Russian power and affecting its political system” (France24)
After Wagner fighters took over an army headquarters in Rostov-on-Don on Saturday, they withdrew as part of an apparent deal between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, though its terms were not immediately clear to the public (NYT)
In a Saturday address, Putin condemned the mutiny as a “stab in the back” (Reuters)
Wagner Group Stops Short on March to Moscow
After quickly seizing the southern military command in Rostov-on-Don, Wagner forces advanced more than halfway to Moscow (Al Jazeera)
President Putin declared the march “treason” and offered amnesty for soldiers who stopped, while Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said his forces would fight Wagner, and Russian cities braced for violence (CBS;Reuters)
Ultimately, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal to have Wagner fighters return to their bases and allow Prigozhin to move to Belarus (Reuters)
The series of events nonetheless exposed Russian vulnerabilities and removed some of its best-trained Wagner soldiers from the fight (AP)
Despite the chaos, Russia continued its nightly airstrikes on Ukrainian cities (Reuters)
Wagner Group Rebels Against Russia’s Military Establishment
After months of brewing tensions, Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin released a video claiming the Russian Ministry of Defense attacked his troops and announced a “march for justice” against the military leadership (NYT)
Meanwhile, Western-trained units began to join the fight in Ukraine’s counteroffensive (NYT)
Ukraine Strikes Crimea’s Chonhar Bridge
It is one of the few bridges that connects Crimea to mainland Ukraine, and Russia vowed to retaliate (Reuters)
Separately, Moscow denied a Ukrainian claim that Russia plans to strike the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to release radiation (Reuters)
Meanwhile, the UK foreign minister said all NATO allies support a plan to offer Ukraine a fast track to membership (Guardian)
Donors Pledge Economic Support for Ukraine at London Conference
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at a two-day London donors conference today that the European Union (EU) plans to provide $54.5 billion in aid for Ukraine’s economic recovery over the next four years, while the United States announced another $1.3 billion in aid (WaPo)
The commitments are a fraction of the World Bank estimates in March that Ukraine will need $411 billion to rebuild the country (FT)
The EU’s proposal of economic aid depends on backing from member countries, some of whom were hesitant to support a larger potential pledge of roughly $78 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported; private financiers BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase are also helping Ukraine set up a bank to help channel private sector investments into the country when hostilities cease (WSJ)
Meanwhile, the Department of Defense said yesterday that it overvalued arms sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion, likely allowing more weapons to be sent to the country without congressional approval before the end of the fiscal year in September (CNN)
Russia Launches Nationwide Air Assault on Ukraine Overnight
The raids targeted agriculture and telecommunications infrastructure across the country, and Ukraine claims to have shot down twenty-eight out of thirty Iranian-made drones (Al Jazeera;Reuters)
Meanwhile, Russia’s attack helicopters continue to be a major obstacle to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which lacks air defenses (FT)
Ukraine Claims “Biggest Blow” in Counteroffensive Still Ahead
As Ukraine retook its eighth village in Zaporizhzhia, the deputy defense minister said that incremental gains along the front line will lead to a bigger breakthrough (Reuters)
Additionally, new photos, supposedly taken by a Ukrainian drone just before the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam, emerged that show a car with explosives parked on the dam, which Ukraine says proves Russia’s culpability (Guardian)
Meanwhile, the EU is preparing a fifty-five million dollar aid package for Ukraine (Bloomberg)
UK: Russia, Ukraine Both Suffering Heavy Losses
British intelligence said both sides have taken heavy losses during intense fighting in Zaporizhzhia but said Russia’s defenses have been “relatively effective” (AP)
Meanwhile, Ukraine hit an ammunition depot deep in Russian-occupied territory, demonstrating its increasing capability to strike behind enemy lines (WSJ)
African Leaders Begin Trip to Ukraine, Russia To Urge Peace
Russia launched missile strikes on Kyiv around the time that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and other African leaders arrived for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today to discuss peace and the war’s effects on global food and fertilizer costs; they are due to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin as well (FT)
Meanwhile, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine at a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron today (AFP/RFI)
Russia Deploys Nuclear Weapons to Belarus
The delivery of these relatively short-range, less powerful tactical nuclear weapons, fit for use on the battlefield, marks the first time Russia has deployed such weapons beyond its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union (Reuters)
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russian missile strikes killed three in Odesa and three in Donetsk province (Reuters)
Also, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov denied claims that his top commander, who leads the Chechen forces in Ukraine, had been killed or wounded, though the Kremlin expressed concerns about his whereabouts (BBC)
Elsewhere, Western allies are discussing security guarantees, short of NATO protection, to reassure Ukraine about long-term support (FT)
Russian President Vladimir Putin told pro-war bloggers at the Kremlin yesterday that Russian forces in Ukraine lacked weapons, including precision-guided munitions, aircraft, and tanks; Russia’s weapon production capabilities have been hampered by Western sanctions (Politico)
As Ukraine continues its counteroffensive against Russian troops, the United States announced yesterday it will commit fifteen additional fighting vehicles and ten more armed personnel carriers in a $325 million weapons package to support Ukraine’s war effort (CBS)
Putin also discussed divisions between the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group and the Russian defense ministry in yesterday’s meeting, saying that he backed a Russian military effort to bring Wagner under control of the defense ministry; separately, Wagner’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said yesterday that his fighters had been taking a break since June 5 and would return to the battlefield in early August, but expressed doubts over going back to Ukraine specifically (FT)
Russian Missile Attack Kills Ten in Zelenskyy’s Hometown
The overnight strike on a residential area in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih killed at least ten people and wounded more than two dozen, Ukrainian officials said (AP)
The Russian Defense Ministry also released a video of captured German Leopard tanks and U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, part of increasingly advanced military equipment transfers to Ukraine, claiming to have captured them on the Zaporizhzhia front (Reuters)
Meanwhile, twenty-five countries are participating in joint military air exercises that began in Germany yesterday, including new North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member Finland and prospective member Sweden; the drills, planned since 2018, were initially organized following Russia’s 2014 invasion and illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, but have taken on new relevance after Russia invaded Ukraine last year (NYT)
Ukraine Claims Breakthrough in Counteroffensive, Aims to Retake 18 Percent of Occupied Territory
The Ukrainian military says it has made gains in southern Donetsk, taking three villages (FT); however, Russian lines have so far held elsewhere with mixed results for Ukrainian forces in the early days of the counteroffensive (Economist)
Kyiv Attacks Russian Positions in Ukraine’s Southeast as Counteroffensive Begins
Ukraine used advanced Western weapons to launch attacks on Russian forces in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, military analysts told the New York Times(NYT). Pushing back Russian fighters in the area could sever the route through which Russia moves military supplies to Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014; Kyiv has long said the goals of its counteroffensive are to retake Crimea and regions that Russia has occupied since its February 2022 invasion (WaPo)
Ukrainian forces have conducted probing operations for weeks at other locations along Russia’s front line, the Economist reported; Moscow has fortified its front line with hundreds of miles of razor wire, trenches, and weapons systems (Economist)