Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is visiting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv today, making him the first Japanese premier to visit a war zone since World War II and the last leader of a Group of Seven (G7) country to meet Zelenskyy in Kyiv (AFP)
China’s Xi Begins State Visit to Moscow
The two-day trip is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first visit to Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine last year; while Xi says he hopes to help negotiate an end to the war, the conflict has also forged closer economic ties between China and Russia (Reuters)
Xi’s visit comes on the heels of an arrest warrant that the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued for Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend; the ICC has accused Putin of war crimes, including forcibly transferring children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia (FT)
China’s foreign ministry said today that the ICC should avoid “politicization and double standards” in its work (NYT)
Over the weekend, Putin made his first visit to Russia-occupied Ukraine since the start of the invasion (BBC)
Poland, Slovakia Become First NATO Countries to Pledge Fighter Jets for Ukraine
Poland and Slovakia announced plans to send around a dozen MiG-29 fighter jets each to assist Ukraine’s war effort, becoming the first North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to supply warplanes after the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom declined requests to do so; the announcement comes as Ukraine prepares for a spring offensive against invading Russian forces (Time)
Meanwhile, customs data obtained by Politico showed that Chinese companies sent Russian entities one thousand assault rifles and other equipment that could be used for military purposes between June and December 2022; it is unclear how the items were used (Politico)
Chinese President Xi Jinping is due to visit Moscow next week for talks that a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said will seek an end to the war (NYT)
U.S. Military Releases Footage of Drone’s Encounter With Russian Fighter Jets
U.S. European Command released a video that appears to show the moment when two Russian fighter jets release fuel on a U.S. surveillance drone flying over the Black Sea; Washington says the jets caused the drone to crash, while Russia disputes that narrative (WaPo)
Russia, Ukraine Diverge on Grain Export Deal Set to Expire Saturday
The United Nations and Turkey mediated a second day of talks today to try to extend a deal under which Russia allows Ukraine to export grain and other food products from its ports in the Black Sea (Reuters)
Moscow said it would allow a sixty-day renewal of the deal, which Kyiv rejected on grounds that the broader agreement allows for extensions of at least 120 days (Bloomberg; Bloomberg)
The deal signed in July 2022 has brought down global food prices that had spiked to record highs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (ABC)
Kremlin spokespeople said the deal does not address Russia’s concerns that Western sanctions have indirectly hurt its agriculture exports (DW)
International Criminal Court to Open Case Against Russia
According to knowledgeable former officials, the International Criminal Court will open two war crimes cases against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine; the cases allege that Russia abducted and sent Ukrainian children to Russian re-education camps (NYT)
Casualties in Donetsk Region Continue to Rise
As the battle for Bakhmut proceeds, Ukraine and Russia claimed high casualties in the region; Ukraine reported 1,100 Russian deaths in less than a week, and Russia reported killing over two hundred twenty service members in twenty-four hours (Reuters)
Russia Fires Missiles Across Ukraine
Russian air strikes across Ukraine killed nine people and caused a power outage at the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, the largest nuclear plant in Europe; Ukraine said Russia fired eighty-one missiles, its largest strike in weeks (BBC)
Reports: Pro-Ukrainian Groups Linked to 2022 Nord Stream Attack
German prosecutors found evidence suggesting Ukrainians were involved in the September 2022 attack on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, according to multiple German-language media outlets (Politico)
The New York Times reported that intelligence shown to U.S. officials suggested that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack, though there was no evidence that top Ukrainian officials ordered the operation; Kyiv has denied involvement (NYT)
Ukraine: Holding Out in “Hellish” Fight For Bakhmut
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin downplayed the strategic importance of Bakhmut for Russia’s momentum (Reuters)
Additionally, Ukrainian special forces made a rare claim of responsibility for a drone strike inside Russian territory, saying they had targeted a military watch tower in the Bryansk region; it is unclear when the attack occurred (Axios)
Meanwhile, the leader of the Wagner Group claimed Moscow had delayed his request for more ammunition and said his representative was denied access to Russian army headquarters in Ukraine (Reuters)
Germany’s Scholz Visits Washington to Talk Ukraine War Options
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is making a low-fanfare visit to Washington, where he and U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a confidential discussion on the state of the war in Ukraine and Western support for Kyiv ahead of a Russian offensive that is anticipated to begin in the coming weeks (NYT)
In addition, the United States is set to announce an additional $400 million in military aid for Ukraine (Reuters)
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces are fighting to repel Russian advances around the city of Bakhmut; the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group called on them to withdraw, saying Wagner fighters have “practically surrounded” the city (The Guardian)
Russia Accuses Ukraine of Cross-Border Raid
In an unverified claim, Russian officials said that Ukraine carried out a sabotage raid across the border near the Bryansk region and shot two civilians; Ukraine has denied any involvement in the incident, calling it a “provocation” (FT;AP)
Meanwhile, at the G20 summit in India, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to “end the war of aggression” in their first in-person meeting since the start of the war; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also urged China to stop sending weapons to Russia (BBC;Reuters)
Putin Orders Officials to Bolster Security
President Vladimir Putin made the order after drone attacks targeted several areas in southern and western Russia; while Russia’s defense ministry has accused Ukraine of the attacks, Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility (AP;Reuters)
Russia Employs Iranian-Made Drones
Ukraine’s military said it shot down eleven Iranian-made Shahed drones; the remaining three drones hit the city of Khmelnytskyi, where the explosions killed two rescue workers and injured three other people, according to the local government (WSJ)
Zelenskyy Calls for Heavier Sanctions on Russia
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for more sanctions to increase pressure on Russia in a tweet after the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; earlier in the week, President Vladimir Putin said the Russian state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, and the Defense Ministry must ensure that Russia is prepared to restart nuclear weapon tests if necessary (AP)
UN Resolution, Fresh U.S. Support Mark One Year of War in Ukraine
For the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a new UN General Assembly resolution called for Russia to withdraw its troops from the country; the nonbinding resolution passed 141-7, with thirty-two countries abstaining, including China and India (WaPo)
China yesterday published a twelve-point position paper for ending the war that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) chief Jens Stoltenberg criticized as lacking credibility; Ukraine’s envoy to China called the plan “a good sign,” but said Beijing was not currently supporting Kyiv in the war (NYT)
Additionally, the U.S. government announced $2 billion in new military aid for Ukraine, including ammunition and several types of drones; it also announced sanctions targeting more than two hundred individuals and entities it said have helped Moscow’s war effort (AP)
Meanwhile, Moldovan authorities called for calm after Russia said Ukraine was preparing to invade Transnistria, a Moscow-backed separatist region in Moldova (FT)
UN to Vote on Resolution Calling for Russian Withdrawal From Ukraine
The UN General Assembly will vote today on a nonbinding resolution that demands Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine” (Euractiv)
Putin Halts Russian Cooperation in New START Nuclear Treaty
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the suspension during a wide-ranging speech that falsely accused Kyiv and its Western allies of starting the war in Ukraine; the treaty is Russia’s last remaining arms control agreement with the United States (WaPo)
To mark one year since Russia’s invasion and underscore U.S. and global support for Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden visited Kyiv yesterday and will give a speech in Warsaw, Poland, today (NPR)
Meanwhile, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, arrived in Russia; ahead of the trip, China called for talks to end the war and said it would release its own peace plan this week (FT)
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said U.S. intelligence suggests Beijing is considering providing Moscow with lethal aid for its war effort, a charge Beijing denies (AP)
Russia Fires Four Missiles at West Ukraine
Russia launched four Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea, two of which were shot down by air defense, according to Ukrainian officials; two civilians were wounded, and several windows were shattered from the blasts in the Ukrainian city of Khmelnytskyi (Reuters)
Munich Security Conference Focuses on Ukraine War Effort
Hundreds of Western officials are in Munich to discuss boosting support for Ukraine, which could include further military aid and stronger sanctions against Russia; in a video address to attendees, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed for accelerated weapons deliveries to defend against Russian forces (NYT)
A report issued by the chair of the conference warned that “revisionist actors” are threatening the international order, but also said that the order should better address the interests of countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America (DW)
The leaders of countries including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are expected to attend the security conference, while both Russia and Iran were uninvited; instead, the Belarusian and Russian presidents met separately to discuss their alliance (FT)
Meanwhile, Russian shelling in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut killed five people yesterday, Ukraine’s prosecutor general’s office said (Kyiv Independent)
Russian Balloons Shot Down Over Kyiv
Officials said they identified six Russian balloons floating over Kyiv, most of which have since been shot down; a military spokesperson said Russia uses such balloons for “reconnaissance or to confuse air defense systems” (NYT)
EU Preps New Sanctions, Export Bans Against Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen today unveiled proposed export bans on goods from the European Union (EU) that Russia could use in its military campaign against Ukraine; over $11 billion worth of goods would be targeted in the sanctions package, which would be EU countries’ tenth against Russia since it invaded Ukraine (European Commission)
For the first time, the EU would also sanction third-country entities found to be assisting Russia’s war effort, including several Iranian firms (Politico)
The proposed sanctions would also expand reporting requirements for European banks holding Russian central bank assets; the package will require the approval of all member states (Bloomberg)
Von der Leyen is seeking to implement the sanctions by February 24, the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion (Reuters)
Russian Aircraft Assembling Near Ukraine Border
According to Western intelligence reports, Russia is amassing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft on the border with Ukraine; in response, Western officials said allies are prioritizing the shipment of air defense assets and artillery ammunition to Kyiv (FT)
Before a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Western nations needed to increase ammunition supplies to Kyiv (Reuters)
Meanwhile, three Russian military aircraft were intercepted near Poland by two Dutch F-35 fighters who escorted them out of the airspace (Reuters)
Russia Bombards Bakhmut in New Offensive
According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, a major new Russian offensive has begun in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, where heavy artillery fire began days before the first anniversary of Moscow’s invasion (Reuters)
Ukraine Reports Highest Rate of Russian Deaths Since War Began
According to Ukranian data, 842 Russian soldiers are dying per day this month, the highest reported rate since the first week of the invasion; the United Kingdom’s ministry of defense could not verify the numbers but said the trends are “likely accurate” (BBC)