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Iran’s War With Israel and the United States
Global Protests Against Iranian Regime
- Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated in cities worldwide this weekend, who gathered to protest Iran’s current regime and its recent crackdown on dissent; Reza Pahlavi, the son of the exiled late shah of Iran, had called for a “global day of action” (BBC)
Trump Expresses Support for Regime Change
- Trump suggested that “the best thing that could happen” would be regime change in Tehran (France24)
Report on Starlink in Iran
- The United States reportedly sent around six thousand of the company’s satellite internet kits to the country in recent weeks, in a secret effort to help dissidents withstand government restrictions on internet access, unnamed U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal; the White House did not comment on the report, but had publicly said in January that Trump spoke to Starlink owner Elon Musk about ensuring connectivity in Iran (WSJ)
Iran Maintains Red Line on Missile Program
- An advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran’s missile capabilities remain a red line as Washington and Tehran consider a second round of talks to avoid further escalation (Reuters)
- However, Iran’s president said that the country is willing to open its nuclear sites for inspections to verify it is not building a nuclear weapon; the concession came the same day that Trump discussed Iran policy with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House (FT)
- Trump wrote on social media that he told Netanyahu he will continue to seek a deal with Iran if possible, though he provided no further details (Truth Social)
United States Used Mobile Launchers at Al-Udeid Base
- Satellite images from February 2 revealed that the United States placed missiles into truck launchers, rather than semi-static launcher stations, allowing for rapid deployment amid escalating tensions with Iran; it is unknown if the missiles remain in the truck launchers (Reuters)
- Trump said he was considering sending a second U.S. aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if talks do not progress (Axios)
- Before departing to meet President Trump in Washington, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters his “first and foremost” goal was to press for a deal that covered more than just Iran’s nuclear program (WaPo)
Iran Expands Crackdown on Dissent, Detains Reformists
- Authorities arrested Azar Mansouri, head of the Reformist Front; Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, who led students who stormed the U.S. Embassy in 1979; and former diplomat Mohsen Aminzadeh in an expansion of crackdowns on dissent (AP)
- Local media also reported that Javad Emam, Secretary General of Iran’s Assembly of Veterans, and Hossein Karoubi, son of reformist leader Mehdi Karoubi, were also among those detained; the detainees face charges of causing political divisions, plotting to overthrow the political system, and coordinating with enemy propaganda (NYT)
- The Shargh newspaper further reported that two more members of the Reform Front were asked to report to the prosecutor’s office on Tuesday (Reuters)
- Separately, the United States warned U.S.-flagged commercial ships to stay “as far as possible” from Iran’s territorial waters (U.S. DoT)
Iran Will Not Accept Ban on Nuclear Enrichment
- Following indirect talks with the United States on Friday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added that Iran is prepared to build trust that its enrichment is for peaceful purposes (Reuters)
- Trump is due to discuss the results of the talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday (AP)
- Meanwhile, Iran’s judiciary sentenced activist and Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Narges Mohammadi, who was detained in December and was reported to be on a hunger strike, to at least another seven years in prison on charges including collusion and propaganda, her lawyer wrote on social media (X)
U.S.-Iran Talks Begin in Oman
- Oman mediated indirect talks today between the United States and Iran focused on “sustaining security and stability,” its foreign ministry said in a statement (Oman FM)
- Both sides described the talks as positive but inconclusive (Bloomberg)
- Omani state media footage also showed the head of U.S. Central Command participating on the U.S. side, a role he had not played in previous rounds of talks (AP)
- Meanwhile, the State Department announced new sanctions on actors it said illegally transported Iranian oil and indirectly funded the country’s repression at home and “terror organizations” abroad (State)
U.S-Iran Nuclear Talks Moved to Oman
- The Trump administration agreed to Iran’s request to move Friday’s nuclear talks from Turkey to Oman (Axios)
- The change in venue comes as Iran seeks to continue previous discussion rounds held in the country and to prevent discussions from expanding to include issues such as its ballistic missile program, which Tehran has stated is a red line in negotiations (Reuters)
U.S. Shoots Down Iranian Drone
- Two Iranian military provocations against U.S. assets in the Middle East underscored high tensions ahead of negotiations planned for Friday (WaPo)
- An Iranian drone “aggressively approached” a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, prompting a fighter jet from the carrier to shoot it down, a U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson said (CNN)
- Hours later, the U.S. Navy escorted a U.S.-flagged tanker to safety after it was approached by two Iranian gunboats that threatened to board the vessel (CBS)
- The CENTCOM spokesperson said that Iran’s aggression increases “risks of collision, miscalculation, and regional destabilization” (The Hill)
- Iran’s top officials did not immediately comment on the maritime incidents; the country’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that communications with a drone over international waters had been lost, though the reason remained unclear (Reuters)
- The incidents could mean Iranian hardliners are resistant to talks, the Wall Street Journal reported (WSJ)
- Officials from the United States and Israel, as well as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, held separate high-level meetings in Jerusalem and Riyadh that discussed the regional stakes of the upcoming U.S.-Iran talks (Times of Israel; Asharq Al-Awsat)
- Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are among those urging Iran and the United States to negotiate rather than risk military conflict, a point Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stressed during a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (Reuters)
- U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said Iran could not be trusted to uphold its promises (Israeli PM)
- Iran has pushed for the negotiations to be moved from their planned location in Istanbul to Oman (Axios)
Plan for U.S.-Iran Talks
- U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to discuss a potential nuclear deal and de-escalation of bilateral tensions, news outlets reported (WaPo)
- The meeting will focus on negotiating a deal to prevent war amid a massive U.S. military buildup in the Gulf (Axios)
- This comes as Iran’s leadership is increasingly concerned that a U.S. strike would reignite protests, with top officials warning Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that, in light of widespread discontent over last month’s crackdowns, fear is no longer a deterrent to protest (Reuters)
Khamenei Warns of “Regional War”
- Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that an attack by the United States would spark a greater “regional war” in the Middle East; Khamenei’s comments are the most direct threat he has made so far regarding U.S. escalation in the region (AP)
EU Announces New Sanctions on Iran
- The European Union (EU) sanctioned fifteen senior officials and six organizations in Iran for actions like surveilling and censoring online protest content (European Council)
- The EU also designated Iran’s paramilitary guard a terrorist organization, which puts its officials under travel controls and other punitive actions and aligns Brussels with others who have done the same, including the United States and Canada (X)
- The head of the European Parliament’s delegation for relations with Iran called the move a “long-overdue political signal that massive violence and transnational repression will no longer go unanswered,” while Iran’s top diplomat said it was a “strategic mistake” (Guardian; Iran FM)
- More than six thousand people are confirmed to have been killed in countrywide demonstrations since the end of December, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said this week (HRANA)
- Estimates from the Iranian government are lower, at about three thousand deaths (AP)
- After initially threatening military action earlier this month over the crackdown, U.S. President Donald Trump later expanded those threats and tied them to demands for a deal on Iran’s nuclear program; though the United States has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, Trump told reporters he had been speaking to Tehran in recent days and that “it would be great” if military action could be avoided (White House)
Trump’s Threats to Attack Iran
- Trump called on Tehran to make a deal guaranteeing Iran has no nuclear weapons, warning that the United States could attack again if it refused; Trump added the U.S. naval deployment in the Middle East was ready to act with “speed and violence, if necessary” (Truth Social)
- This week, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) publicly stated the United States could not use their airspace for an attack on Iran (Asharq Al-Awsat; Emirates News Agency)
U.S. Naval Assets Near Iran
- The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and three naval destroyers have arrived in the Middle East, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced (CENTCOM)
- Trump has referenced the fleet’s impending arrival in his threats to strike Iran over its response to antigovernment protests in the country during recent weeks; however, the strike group remains in the Indian Ocean, CENTCOM said—not the Arabian Sea, which borders Iran (AP)
U.S. Forces Near Iran
- The United States is deploying “an armada” of warships near Iran “just in case” Iran’s response to protests becomes untenable, Trump told reporters (CNN)
- At the same time, he voiced an openness to talk to the Iranian government; Iran’s foreign minister has similarly expressed willingness for dialogue with the United States but said the country is ready for war in the event of U.S. military action (FT)
Toll of Iran Protests
- Iran estimates that more than three thousand people have died in recent demonstrations, its government said in its first official death toll (AP)
- The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said that it had verified almost five thousand deaths, though other estimates are far greater (HRANA)
- In recent days, the World Economic Forum in Davos rescinded its invitation to Iran’s foreign minister due to the widespread killings (Euronews)
Protest Fallout for Iranian Businesses
- Firms in the country are hurting as an internet shutdown intended to stifle protests continues, with watchdog group NetBlocks estimating the blackout costs the economy more than $37 million per day; meanwhile, prosecutors in Tehran have begun filing paperwork to seize the assets of dozens of cafes they allege played a role in antigovernment protests, judicial news agency Mizan reported (AP)
Iran Denies Execution Plan
- Iran’s judiciary denied today that antigovernment protester Erfan Soltani has been sentenced to death; the case had garnered international attention (Guardian)
- A Norway-based human rights group reported that an execution order shared with Soltani’s family has been postponed (X)
- Separately, the United States announced new sanctions on Iranian officials, citing their “brutal crackdown against the Iranian people” (Treasury)
- Gulf countries and Israel urged Trump in recent days not to strike Iran because of concerns that such actions could ignite a broader regional conflict, unnamed officials told multiple news outlets (NYT)
- The White House press secretary said that “all options remain on the table” regarding Iran (White House)
Iran Warns of Retaliation If Trump Strikes
- A senior Iranian official said Tehran would strike U.S. military bases in the Middle East if Trump were to intervene in Iran (Reuters)
- Trump said that “the killing in Iran is stopping,” though he didn’t clarify what this could mean in the context of his threats to strike the country (White House)
- The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it had verified more than 2,600 deaths in the protests so far, but cautioned that an ongoing communications blackout made evidence harder to check (HRANA)
- As a precaution, nonessential personnel are evacuating from the Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the primary U.S. air operations hub in the region (NYT)
Trump Urges Iranians to “Keep Protesting”
- Writing on Truth Social, Trump said that help was on the way—without providing details—and vowed to not meet with Iranian officials until the killing of demonstrators ends (BBC)
- Inside Iran, authorities allowed people to make international phone calls today, though a broader communications blackout remained in place; Iranians who were able to make calls abroad detailed heavy security force deployments in central Tehran, few people in the streets, and burned-out government buildings (AP)
- An unnamed Iranian official told Reuters today that an estimated two thousand people, including security agents, have been killed in the demonstrations (Reuters)
United States to Impose 25 Percent Tariffs on Countries Doing Business With Iran
- The announcement came after Trump called for Iranian authorities to abstain from violence against antigovernment protesters and raised the prospect of U.S. intervention (Truth Social)
- He did not immediately issue an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from countries including China, India, Iraq, Russia, and Turkey; Trump did not specify whether the new tariffs would be added to or replace existing tariff rates (Guardian)
- China, which is Iran’s largest trading partner, criticized the measure, with a spokesperson for its U.S. embassy writing on social media that “coercion and pressure cannot solve problems” (X)
- The Iranian foreign minister said the country was ready for war, but seeks fair negotiations; both the United States and Iran acknowledged their communication channels remain open as the protests continue (Reuters)
Trump Reiterates Threats to Strike Iran Over Crackdown on Protests
- The U.S. military is considering “some very strong options” for Iran, Trump told journalists; he said that a meeting with Iranian officials is being arranged after they voiced interest in negotiating, but added that the United States “may have to act” sooner, depending on how the protests develop (White House)
- Trump’s options for striking Iran include cyberattacks, military strikes, and sanctions, the Wall Street Journal reported; yet the United States currently has no aircraft carrier in the Middle East or Europe after moving its largest aircraft carrier to Latin America and would need to move assets into place (WSJ)
- Despite Iranian authorities maintaining an internet blackout over the weekend, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it verified that more than 480 demonstrators and around 50 law enforcement officers had been killed and more than 10,600 people had been jailed since the protests began in late December (HRANA)
- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the protests during a call on Saturday, Axios reported (Axios)
- Meanwhile, world leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, voiced support for freedom of expression in Iran and called for restraint against protesters from the country’s authorities (X; X)
Iranian Authorities Cut Internet Access Nationwide
- Iranian authorities have struggled to contain antigovernment protests that have swelled across the country (NYT)
- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said today that authorities would “not back down” in the face of protests (NYT)
- Khamenei has accused demonstrators of acting on behalf of Trump (NBC)
- Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, son of the shah ousted in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, called for nationwide demonstrations last night and tonight (X)