Iran’s War With Israel and the United States
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran after weeks of military buildup and threats from President Trump. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the goal of the operation is to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and “to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” Trump urged Iranians to capitalize on the attack as the “only chance for generations” to take over their government. Trump and Israeli officials later confirmed that Israel Defense Force (IDF) strikes on Tehran killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Additional U.S. strikes targeted military sites in Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Qum, and Tabriz. Iran quickly retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at Israel and U.S. facilities across the Middle East, including in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
History of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Iran has pursued a nuclear program since at least 1957, with varying degrees of success. During a war with Iraq, Iran decided to develop nuclear weapons to ensure its security in the late 1980s. Consequently, Iran pursued agreements with China and Russia to support the program’s research throughout the 1990s. In the summer of 2002, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an umbrella organization made up of Iranian dissident groups, exposed the existence of two Iranian nuclear sites that were hidden from the IAEA.
By 2003, diplomats launched an intensive effort to halt Iran’s nuclear program. Iran agreed, insisting only on keeping its centrifuges for nuclear energy. However, it did not follow through on its commitment to transparent reporting to the IAEA and continued covert activities, leading to a June 2004 rebuke and a September 2005 finding of non-compliance by the IAEA, paving the way for a future referral to the UN Security Council (UNSC). In 2006, the UNSC adopted Resolution 1696, the first legally binding call for Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program. Over the next few years, the UNSC adopted a series of resolutions imposing crippling economic sanctions on Iran for its failure to suspend its enrichment-related activities.
Between 2011 and 2015, the compounding effects of international sanctions led Iran’s economy to contract by 20 percent and unemployment to rise to 20 percent. In 2013, Hassan Rouhani, a noted pragmatist, won Iran’s presidential election, campaigning on a promise to lift sanctions and restore the economy. Over the next two years, the United States convened several rounds of bilateral talks and led the other P5+1 coalition members—China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom—in negotiations with Iran’s new leadership. These efforts culminated in the adoption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. Once key parties signed the agreement, the UNSC approved UN Resolution 2231, paving the way for sanctions relief.
The JCPOA required Iran to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium by 98 percent for fifteen years, cut the number of operating centrifuges by two-thirds for ten years, and provide inspectors access to enrichment facilities within twenty-four days if the IAEA suspects violations. Moreover, if the IAEA confirmed violations, the JCPOA allowed for the immediate reinstatement of sanctions. After the JCPOA entered into force on January 16, 2016, Iran received sanctions relief totaling nearly $100 billion. However, Iran continued to develop ballistic missiles, which, according to the United States, violated UN Resolution 2231.
Iran’s Regional Proxies
Though the JCPOA limited Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its regional ambitions continued to grow. Iran persisted in arming and training Shiite militants through its Quds Force—the international arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—which has exacerbated sectarian divisions in the Middle East. Iran has provided years of military aid and training to the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which enabled its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The Quds Force has also provided advanced armed drones to Hezbollah in Lebanon, trained and funded more than one hundred thousand Shiite fighters in Syria, supplied ballistic missiles and drones to Yemen’s Houthis, and helped Shiite militias in Iraq build missile capabilities.
The U.S. government considers Iran to be the foremost state sponsor of terrorism, spending more than one billion dollars on terrorist financing annually. There are between 140,000 and 185,000 IRGC-Quds Force partner forces across Afghanistan, Gaza, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen.
Trump’s First-Term Clash With Iran
Because the JCPOA only addressed Iran’s nuclear program—and not its revisionism or ballistic missile programs—the first Trump administration withdrew the United States from the agreement, pledging to seek a more comprehensive deal. In 2018, the Trump administration began reimposing sanctions on Iran and demanded that European countries withdraw from the JCPOA as part of a new containment strategy. U.S. sanctions sparked the worst economic crisis Iran has faced in forty years, cutting Iranian oil exports by more than half and emboldening Iranian hardliners.
While the Trump administration pursued a strategy of maximum pressure to bring Iran to the negotiating table, Iran began to contravene the JCPOA’s restrictions on its nuclear program, raising tensions. In April 2019, the United States designated the IRGC a terrorist organization. When the Trump administration received intelligence of potential Iranian attacks on U.S. troops, it deployed bombers, carriers, and additional forces to the Middle East. Over the next month, six oil tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz were attacked, which U.S. government officials blamed on Iran.
In late June 2019, Iran downed a U.S. Global Hawk drone in the Strait of Hormuz; President Trump ordered a cyberattack and the imposition of new sanctions in response. On December 31, Trump blamed Iran for backing protests that tried to seize the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Days later, tensions peaked when the United States killed Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, in a Baghdad air strike. In response, Iran said it would no longer adhere to restrictions under the nuclear deal, and it accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane while on high alert. In late 2020, Trump continued to ratchet up sanctions, and Iran boosted uranium enrichment to levels well beyond the limits of the nuclear deal after one of its top nuclear scientists was killed.
Conflict Between Israel and Iran
The outbreak of war between Israel, a close U.S. ally, and the Palestinian Iran-backed militant group Hamas in October 2023 escalated tensions between Iran and Israel. Iran-backed proxy forces ramped up strikes in protest of Israel’s military incursion into the Gaza Strip, including more than two hundred attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets in Iraq and Syria. In response, the United States ordered air strikes on two Iran-backed facilities on October 26, 2023, and eighty-five more Iran-affiliated targets in the two countries on February 2, 2024. The Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon—both actors in Iran’s axis of resistance—also launched attacks from the Red Sea and Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, spurring fears of regional spillover.
In 2024, Israel and Iran’s confrontation shifted from indirect, proxy-based hostilities to direct exchanges of strikes. On April 1, a suspected Israeli air strike against an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, killed two of its generals and five military advisors. Iran retaliated by launching over three hundred drone and missile attacks, the first time Iran had directly targeted Israel.
Following Israel’s killing of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles against Israel in October 2024. Israel then launched its largest direct attack on Iran, targeting its air defenses and missile production facilities. Israel’s decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, coupled with the downfall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, considerably weakened Iran’s axis of resistance in 2024.
Upon returning to office in 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump restored his maximum pressure campaign against Tehran while also initiating negotiations on its nuclear program—the first direct U.S.-Iran talks since he withdrew the United States from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018. Israel was wholly opposed to the negotiations and has maintained an unwavering commitment to dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. Israeli officials argue that Iran’s clandestine efforts to develop nuclear weapons would fundamentally alter the regional balance of power, posing a direct danger to Israel’s survival.
On June 12, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared Iran was violating its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in twenty years, prompting Iran to announce it would open a secret uranium enrichment site. The next day, Israel launched a unilateral military strike against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile factories, senior military officials, and nuclear scientists. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the attack “an act of war,” and Iran retaliated by launching waves of drones and dozens of ballistic missiles. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the operation as a last-resort effort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Although the Trump administration had recently resumed nuclear negotiations, President Trump increasingly voiced support for Israel’s objectives and signaled his openness to regime change in Tehran.
Following a week of air strikes between Israel and Iran, the United States directly intervened in the conflict, attacking three Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz on June 21. The Trump administration claimed the strikes significantly hindered Iran’s capacity to achieve weapons-grade uranium, but the head of the UN nuclear watchdog assessed the program was set back by a matter of months. Trump is the first U.S. president to attack another country’s nuclear program and the first to explicitly join Israel in an attack on an adversary. Iran retaliated on June 23, launching a missile attack on U.S. forces stationed at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar; no casualties were reported. Trump announced a ceasefire later that day. Although both sides accused the other of continuing strikes, the truce has largely held.
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz
According to Iranian media, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed and Iran will fire upon any ship that attempts to pass through (Reuters). Meanwhile, Kuwaiti air defenses mistakenly shot down three American jets during combat operations; U.S. Central Command said in a statement that all six crew members are safe (NYT). U.S. Central Command also raised the U.S. death toll from Operation Epic Fury to four; the fourth servicemember was severely wounded in a Saturday attack on a U.S. base in Kuwait and later succumbed to injuries (CENTCOM). Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this morning framed the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Khamenei as “not a so-called regime change war,” but quickly added “the regime sure did change” (NPR). Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have both encouraged Iranians to rise up against the remnants of the regime (AP). Also this morning, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said the attacks had taken “months, and in some cases, years” of planning with the goal of stopping Tehran’s “ability to project power outside of its borders” (France24). Although Trump told reporters yesterday that Iran had indicated interest in resuming talks, Iran’s top national security official, Ali Larijani, wrote on social media today that Iran would not negotiate with the United States (X). The death toll continues to rise: the Iranian Red Crescent reported at least 555 people have been killed in Iran, while 11 people have been killed in Israel (AP).
Three U.S. Service Members Killed in Operation Epic Fury
U.S. Central Command announced in a statement that three U.S. service members were killed and five others were seriously wounded in yesterday’s attack on Iran; President Trump said there would “likely be more” U.S. casualties (CENTCOM; White House). Operations continued as CENTCOM stated that a large-scale U.S. strike destroyed the IRGC headquarters (CENTCOM). Satellite imagery also shows damage to Iran’s naval and air bases, while President Trump stated that the operations sank nine Iranian naval ships (NPR; Truth Social). Trump has given varying estimates of how long U.S. military engagement could last, telling different media outlets over the weekend it could be days or up to 4 to 5 weeks (NYT). Speaking to The Atlantic, Trump appeared to float an off-ramp, suggesting that he would be willing to speak with Iran’s new leadership (The Atlantic). Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on social media that Trump had launched the war despite a new nuclear deal being “within reach” (X). Meanwhile, Israel announced it launched another round of strikes “in the heart of Iran” (CNN). Retaliatory strikes from Iran also continued, as an Iranian missile strike in Beit Shamesh killed nine Israeli citizens (NYT). Three people were also killed in the United Arab Emirates, while Kuwait’s Health Ministry reported one death from the retaliatory strikes (Jerusalem Post). Six nearby countries condemned Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the region (Saudi Press Agency). Videos and images verified by the New York Times indicate yesterday’s bombing of an elementary school in southern Iran killed at least 175 people (NYT). Oil shipping traffic slowed to a near stop in the Strait of Hormuz, while a key international oil price jumped at least 8 percent (Bloomberg).
United States and Israel Attack Iran
The United States and Israel announced that they had initiated a large-scale military operation designed to destroy Iran’s military capabilities and bring about regime change (Axios). The commander of the U.S. Central Command said the operation began at 1:15 a.m. ET and targeted aspects of Iran’s security apparatus that posed an imminent threat (CENTCOM). The operation, named “Operation Epic Fury” by the United States, utilized Tomahawk missiles, F-18 and F-35 fighter jets, and, for the first time, single-use drones (Reuters). The combined U.S.-Israel force conducted close to nine hundred strikes, as the Israel Defense Forces claimed it had struck at least five hundred Iranian targets (ISW). Iranian state media confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the attacks; Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammed Pakpour were also reportedly killed alongside five other senior military commanders (Reuters). Iranian state media also reported that Khamenei’s daughter, grandchild, daughter-in-law, and son-in-law were killed in the attacks (Times of Israel). The U.S.-Israel operations triggered a retaliatory campaign by Iran as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates faced Iranian missiles, drones, and intercepts (Axios). At least one U.S. military installation in Bahrain, which headquarters the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, was struck by Iranian missile fire; Iranian state media reported that missile attacks also targeted Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and al-Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates among other non-military sites, including luxury hotels and residential buildings in Bahrain and Dubai (WaPo). UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for immediate de-escalation at an emergency Security Council meeting Saturday, condemning the United States and Israel’s strikes as unlawful (AP). Both countries argued their actions were justified given the major nature of the threat posed by Iran, while Iran said it posed no imminent threat (UN).
U.S. Guidance on Leaving Israel
As the United States weighs a strike on Iran, it authorized non-essential government staff and family members to depart Israel, citing unspecified “safety risks” (U.S. Embassy Jerusalem). China also urged its citizens in Iran to evacuate as soon as possible (Reuters). The threat of renewed conflict comes as Israel’s stockpiles of ground-based ballistic missile interceptors and U.S. land- and sea-based antiballistic missile systems, both used extensively during the June 2025 Iran–Israel conflict, were significantly depleted, raising concerns about the sustainability of Israel’s air defense coverage in the event of another exchange (NYT). Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that some of Iran’s uranium enriched to up to 60 percent purity, near weapons grade, is stored in an underground tunnel complex at its Isfahan nuclear site, which appears largely undamaged despite U.S. and Israeli strikes that hit the facility’s entrance in June (Reuters).
Third Round of U.S.-Iran Talks
The United States and Iran held another round of indirect nuclear talks today in Geneva, with both sides threatening war if diplomacy fails (BBC). The countries are floating proposals that include limiting the amount of uranium Iran is allowed to enrich, temporarily suspending Iran’s enrichment activity, and dismantling its main nuclear sites, according to reports from multiple news outlets (Guardian). Both sides agreed to resume negotiations within a week, with additional technical-level discussions scheduled in Vienna (Reuters). The state news agency of mediator Oman said today that both sides were demonstrating “unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas and solutions” (Oman News Agency). Further, the foreign minister of Oman said the talks had achieved “significant progress,” but did not announce a breakthrough that would avert an attack (Oman FM).
Iran Optimistic on U.S. Talks as Protests Expand
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he sees a chance for a positive outcome from a third round of talks with the United States in Geneva (Reuters). Meanwhile, BBC verified footage shows additional universities joining anti-government protests across Iran (BBC). Tokyo “strongly demanded” the release of a Japanese national detained in Iran since January, following a report by RFE/RL that Iranian authorities had arrested the Tehran bureau chief of the Japanese public broadcaster NHK World; the RFE/RL report cited unnamed sources (Japan Times).
Trump Calls for Nuclear Deal in State of the Union Address
Trump said he sought a nuclear deal with Iran to thwart the country’s “sinister ambitions” to obtain nuclear weapons, but said he had yet to hear Iran commit to abandoning those ambitions; he also warned that Iran was trying to develop missiles that could reach the United States (NYT). Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that a deal with the United States was only feasible if diplomacy was prioritized (Reuters). This comes as Iran nears a deal with China to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles; though no delivery date has been agreed upon, the use of the CM-302 missile would improve Iran’s strike capabilities and pose a threat to U.S. naval forces (Reuters).
Iranian Students Continue Protests as U.S.-Iran Tensions Heighten
Iranian students continued protests for a third day, as state media reported students burning flags at an all-women university, chanting anti-government slogans, and skirmishes at Amir Kabir University in Tehran (Reuters). This comes amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, as Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that any U.S. attack, including preliminary strikes, would be considered an act of aggression and would prompt a response (Al Jazeera). Meanwhile, the United States began evacuating non-essential staff and eligible family members from the U.S. Embassy in Beirut amid increased concern about a military conflict with Iran (Reuters). However, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff chair Dan Caine has warned Trump and other officials that a military campaign against Iran could incur significant costs to U.S. forces and weapons, multiple news outlets reported, citing unnamed officials (NYT). Caine’s office said in a statement that he confidentially gives the president a range of options and associated risks (WSJ). While the White House praised Caine in a statement, Trump wrote on social media that it is “100% incorrect” that Caine is “against us going to War with Iran” (Truth Social).
Plans for More Iran Talks
Negotiations between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program will likely continue in Geneva on Thursday, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS News (CBS). Unnamed U.S. officials also confirmed plans for the meeting to multiple news outlets, but stressed that Trump is still considering military strikes amid the large-scale U.S. deployment in the region (Axios; NYT). In Iran, meanwhile, antigovernment protests have reignited as the new school semester begins in spite of the regime’s recent brutal crackdowns (NYT).
Trump Signals Deadline for Nuclear Deal
Trump told reporters that Iran has ten or “pretty much maximum” fifteen days to reach a deal with the United States or “bad things” will happen (Bloomberg).
Araghchi Says Some Progress Made in Geneva
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that some progress was made in Geneva by reaching an understanding on “guiding principles,” but that this progress does not indicate an imminent nuclear deal (Reuters). U.S. officials have further stated that Iran needs to draft a detailed proposal for a deal in two weeks (Axios). As negotiations continue, the U.S. military is amassing its greatest airpower buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Wall Street Journal reported (WSJ). Meanwhile, satellite images show that Iran has been making repairs to and fortifying military and nuclear sites bombed by the United States and Israel (Reuters).
U.S. and Iran Pursuing Talks in Geneva
U.S.-Iran negotiations ended with a commitment to meet again, but Iran failed to acknowledge certain U.S. red lines, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News (Fox News). While Tehran has sought a narrow deal on its nuclear program as well as sanctions relief, Washington has signaled it seeks a more expansive agreement that could also address Tehran’s missile stockpile (NYT). Portions of the Strait of Hormuz were closed for “security precautions” as the Revolutionary Guards conducted military drills in the strait (Reuters). The closure included live-fire drills, a rare show of force (AP). Separately, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened to sink U.S. warships in the region (The Hill). Open-source flight radar data shows that dozens of U.S. fighter jets have moved to positions near Iran this week (Axios).
U.S. Heightens Military Presence in Region
Global Protests Against Iranian Regime
Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated in cities worldwide this weekend, who gathered to protest Iran’s current regime and its recent crackdown on dissent; Reza Pahlavi, the son of the exiled late shah of Iran, had called for a “global day of action” (BBC).
Trump Expresses Support for Regime Change
Trump suggested that “the best thing that could happen” would be regime change in Tehran (France24).
Report on Starlink in Iran
The United States reportedly sent around six thousand of the company’s satellite internet kits to the country in recent weeks, in a secret effort to help dissidents withstand government restrictions on internet access, unnamed U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal; the White House did not comment on the report, but had publicly said in January that Trump spoke to Starlink owner Elon Musk about ensuring connectivity in Iran (WSJ).
Iran Maintains Red Line on Missile Program
An advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran’s missile capabilities remain a red line as Washington and Tehran consider a second round of talks to avoid further escalation (Reuters). However, Iran’s president said that the country is willing to open its nuclear sites for inspections to verify it is not building a nuclear weapon; the concession came the same day that Trump discussed Iran policy with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House (FT). Trump wrote on social media that he told Netanyahu he will continue to seek a deal with Iran if possible, though he provided no further details (Truth Social).
United States Used Mobile Launchers at Al-Udeid Base
Satellite images from February 2 revealed that the United States placed missiles into truck launchers, rather than semi-static launcher stations, allowing for rapid deployment amid escalating tensions with Iran; it is unknown if the missiles remain in the truck launchers (Reuters). Trump said he was considering sending a second U.S. aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if talks do not progress (Axios). Before departing to meet President Trump in Washington, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters his “first and foremost” goal was to press for a deal that covered more than just Iran’s nuclear program (WaPo).
Iran Expands Crackdown on Dissent, Detains Reformists
Authorities arrested Azar Mansouri, head of the Reformist Front; Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, who led students who stormed the U.S. Embassy in 1979; and former diplomat Mohsen Aminzadeh in an expansion of crackdowns on dissent (AP). Local media also reported that Javad Emam, Secretary General of Iran’s Assembly of Veterans, and Hossein Karoubi, son of reformist leader Mehdi Karoubi, were also among those detained; the detainees face charges of causing political divisions, plotting to overthrow the political system, and coordinating with enemy propaganda (NYT). The Shargh newspaper further reported that two more members of the Reform Front were asked to report to the prosecutor’s office on Tuesday (Reuters). Separately, the United States warned U.S.-flagged commercial ships to stay “as far as possible” from Iran’s territorial waters (U.S. DoT).
Iran Will Not Accept Ban on Nuclear Enrichment
Following indirect talks with the United States on Friday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added that Iran is prepared to build trust that its enrichment is for peaceful purposes (Reuters). Trump is due to discuss the results of the talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday (AP). Meanwhile, Iran’s judiciary sentenced activist and Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Narges Mohammadi, who was detained in December and was reported to be on a hunger strike, to at least another seven years in prison on charges including collusion and propaganda, her lawyer wrote on social media (X).
U.S.-Iran Talks Begin in Oman
Oman mediated indirect talks today between the United States and Iran focused on “sustaining security and stability,” its foreign ministry said in a statement (Oman FM). Both sides described the talks as positive but inconclusive (Bloomberg). Omani state media footage also showed the head of U.S. Central Command participating on the U.S. side, a role he had not played in previous rounds of talks (AP). Meanwhile, the State Department announced new sanctions on actors it said illegally transported Iranian oil and indirectly funded the country’s repression at home and “terror organizations” abroad (State).
U.S-Iran Nuclear Talks Moved to Oman
The Trump administration agreed to Iran’s request to move Friday’s nuclear talks from Turkey to Oman (Axios). The change in venue comes as Iran seeks to continue previous discussion rounds held in the country and to prevent discussions from expanding to include issues such as its ballistic missile program, which Tehran has stated is a red line in negotiations (Reuters).
U.S. Shoots Down Iranian Drone
Two Iranian military provocations against U.S. assets in the Middle East underscored high tensions ahead of negotiations planned for Friday (WaPo). An Iranian drone “aggressively approached” a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, prompting a fighter jet from the carrier to shoot it down, a U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson said (CNN). Hours later, the U.S. Navy escorted a U.S.-flagged tanker to safety after it was approached by two Iranian gunboats that threatened to board the vessel (CBS). The CENTCOM spokesperson said that Iran’s aggression increases “risks of collision, miscalculation, and regional destabilization” (The Hill). Iran’s top officials did not immediately comment on the maritime incidents; the country’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that communications with a drone over international waters had been lost, though the reason remained unclear (Reuters). The incidents could mean Iranian hardliners are resistant to talks, the Wall Street Journal reported (WSJ). Officials from the United States and Israel, as well as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, held separate high-level meetings in Jerusalem and Riyadh that discussed the regional stakes of the upcoming U.S.-Iran talks (Times of Israel; Asharq Al-Awsat). Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are among those urging Iran and the United States to negotiate rather than risk military conflict, a point Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stressed during a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (Reuters). U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said Iran could not be trusted to uphold its promises (Israeli PM). Iran has pushed for the negotiations to be moved from their planned location in Istanbul to Oman (Axios).
Plan for U.S.-Iran Talks
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to discuss a potential nuclear deal and de-escalation of bilateral tensions, news outlets reported (WaPo). The meeting will focus on negotiating a deal to prevent war amid a massive U.S. military buildup in the Gulf (Axios). This comes as Iran’s leadership is increasingly concerned that a U.S. strike would reignite protests, with top officials warning Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that, in light of widespread discontent over last month’s crackdowns, fear is no longer a deterrent to protest (Reuters).
Khamenei Warns of “Regional War”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that an attack by the United States would spark a greater “regional war” in the Middle East; Khamenei’s comments are the most direct threat he has made so far regarding U.S. escalation in the region (AP).
EU Announces New Sanctions on Iran
The European Union (EU) sanctioned fifteen senior officials and six organizations in Iran for actions like surveilling and censoring online protest content (European Council). The EU also designated Iran’s paramilitary guard a terrorist organization, which puts its officials under travel controls and other punitive actions and aligns Brussels with others who have done the same, including the United States and Canada (X). The head of the European Parliament’s delegation for relations with Iran called the move a “long-overdue political signal that massive violence and transnational repression will no longer go unanswered,” while Iran’s top diplomat said it was a “strategic mistake” (Guardian; Iran FM). More than six thousand people are confirmed to have been killed in countrywide demonstrations since the end of December, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said this week (HRANA). Estimates from the Iranian government are lower, at about three thousand deaths (AP). After initially threatening military action earlier this month over the crackdown, U.S. President Donald Trump later expanded those threats and tied them to demands for a deal on Iran’s nuclear program; though the United States has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, Trump told reporters he had been speaking to Tehran in recent days and that “it would be great” if military action could be avoided (White House).
Trump’s Threats to Attack Iran
Trump called on Tehran to make a deal guaranteeing Iran has no nuclear weapons, warning that the United States could attack again if it refused; Trump added the U.S. naval deployment in the Middle East was ready to act with “speed and violence, if necessary” (Truth Social). This week, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) publicly stated the United States could not use their airspace for an attack on Iran (Asharq Al-Awsat; Emirates News Agency).
U.S. Naval Assets Near Iran
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and three naval destroyers have arrived in the Middle East, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced (CENTCOM). Trump has referenced the fleet’s impending arrival in his threats to strike Iran over its response to antigovernment protests in the country during recent weeks; however, the strike group remains in the Indian Ocean, CENTCOM said—not the Arabian Sea, which borders Iran (AP).
U.S. Forces Near Iran
The United States is deploying “an armada” of warships near Iran “just in case” Iran’s response to protests becomes untenable, Trump told reporters (CNN). At the same time, he voiced an openness to talk to the Iranian government; Iran’s foreign minister has similarly expressed willingness for dialogue with the United States but said the country is ready for war in the event of U.S. military action (FT).
Toll of Iran Protests
Iran estimates that more than three thousand people have died in recent demonstrations, its government said in its first official death toll (AP). The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said that it had verified almost five thousand deaths, though other estimates are far greater (HRANA). In recent days, the World Economic Forum in Davos rescinded its invitation to Iran’s foreign minister due to the widespread killings (Euronews).
Protest Fallout for Iranian Businesses
Firms in the country are hurting as an internet shutdown intended to stifle protests continues, with watchdog group NetBlocks estimating the blackout costs the economy more than $37 million per day; meanwhile, prosecutors in Tehran have begun filing paperwork to seize the assets of dozens of cafes they allege played a role in antigovernment protests, judicial news agency Mizan reported (AP).
Iran Denies Execution Plan
Iran’s judiciary denied today that antigovernment protester Erfan Soltani has been sentenced to death; the case had garnered international attention (Guardian). A Norway-based human rights group reported that an execution order shared with Soltani’s family has been postponed (X). Separately, the United States announced new sanctions on Iranian officials, citing their “brutal crackdown against the Iranian people” (Treasury). Gulf countries and Israel urged Trump in recent days not to strike Iran because of concerns that such actions could ignite a broader regional conflict, unnamed officials told multiple news outlets (NYT). The White House press secretary said that “all options remain on the table” regarding Iran (White House).
Iran Warns of Retaliation If Trump Strikes
A senior Iranian official said Tehran would strike U.S. military bases in the Middle East if Trump were to intervene in Iran (Reuters). Trump said that “the killing in Iran is stopping,” though he didn’t clarify what this could mean in the context of his threats to strike the country (White House). The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it had verified more than 2,600 deaths in the protests so far, but cautioned that an ongoing communications blackout made evidence harder to check (HRANA). As a precaution, nonessential personnel are evacuating from the Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the primary U.S. air operations hub in the region (NYT).
Trump Urges Iranians to “Keep Protesting”
Writing on Truth Social, Trump said that help was on the way—without providing details—and vowed to not meet with Iranian officials until the killing of demonstrators ends (BBC). Inside Iran, authorities allowed people to make international phone calls today, though a broader communications blackout remained in place; Iranians who were able to make calls abroad detailed heavy security force deployments in central Tehran, few people in the streets, and burned-out government buildings (AP). An unnamed Iranian official told Reuters today that an estimated two thousand people, including security agents, have been killed in the demonstrations (Reuters).
United States to Impose 25 Percent Tariffs on Countries Doing Business With Iran
The announcement came after Trump called for Iranian authorities to abstain from violence against antigovernment protesters and raised the prospect of U.S. intervention (Truth Social). He did not immediately issue an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from countries including China, India, Iraq, Russia, and Turkey; Trump did not specify whether the new tariffs would be added to or replace existing tariff rates (Guardian). China, which is Iran’s largest trading partner, criticized the measure, with a spokesperson for its U.S. embassy writing on social media that “coercion and pressure cannot solve problems” (X). The Iranian foreign minister said the country was ready for war, but seeks fair negotiations; both the United States and Iran acknowledged their communication channels remain open as the protests continue (Reuters).
Trump Reiterates Threats to Strike Iran Over Crackdown on Protests
The U.S. military is considering “some very strong options” for Iran, Trump told journalists; he said that a meeting with Iranian officials is being arranged after they voiced interest in negotiating, but added that the United States “may have to act” sooner, depending on how the protests develop (White House). Trump’s options for striking Iran include cyberattacks, military strikes, and sanctions, the Wall Street Journal reported; yet the United States currently has no aircraft carrier in the Middle East or Europe after moving its largest aircraft carrier to Latin America and would need to move assets into place (WSJ). Despite Iranian authorities maintaining an internet blackout over the weekend, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it verified that more than 480 demonstrators and around 50 law enforcement officers had been killed and more than 10,600 people had been jailed since the protests began in late December (HRANA). U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the protests during a call on Saturday, Axios reported (Axios). Meanwhile, world leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, voiced support for freedom of expression in Iran and called for restraint against protesters from the country’s authorities (X; X).
Iranian Authorities Cut Internet Access Nationwide
Iranian authorities have struggled to contain antigovernment protests that have swelled across the country (NYT). Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said today that authorities would “not back down” in the face of protests (NYT). Khamenei has accused demonstrators of acting on behalf of Trump (NBC). Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, son of the shah ousted in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, called for nationwide demonstrations last night and tonight (X).
Trump Warns of U.S. Consequences If Iranian Authorities Kill demonstrators
Iranian security forces’ efforts to repress the demonstrations have not stopped their growth; they have now entered their twelfth day (BBC; HRANA). U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said that more than forty-two people have died and more than two thousand have been detained since demonstrations began on December 28 (HRANA). Protesters are denouncing both economic hardship—the country’s currency collapsed late last month—and political repression, with many openly calling for regime change (Bloomberg). Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has sought to engage with protesters and introduce economic stipends and other concessions, but Iranians have stayed on the streets (FT). Trump told the “Hugh Hewitt Show” that Washington was watching the demonstrations “very closely;” he said Iranian authorities have “been told very strongly” that they will “pay hell” if they kill demonstrators, though he characterized the deaths so far as consequences of crowd control problems (Hugh Hewitt). In a separate interview that aired on Fox News, Trump alleged that Khamenei could be looking to leave Iran (Fox News). Iraq-based Kurdish opposition parties are calling for a general strike in support of the protest movement that has spread to the Kurdish regions of western Iran (France24).
Iran Responds to Protests
The government announced a plan to give most citizens monthly payments of about $7 in response to widespread demonstrations fueled by economic hardship (NYT). The protests have become the largest in the country since 2022, when the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody sparked months of civic upheaval (AP).
Iran’s Protests Spread
Antigovernment protests and labor strikes have spread to twenty-six provinces in Iran, U.S.-based group Human Rights Activists News Agency said; at least nineteen protesters have reportedly been killed as a result of the law enforcement crackdown (HRANA). After Iran’s top leader said Saturday that “rioters must be put in their place,” Trump told reporters that if Iran starts “killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States” (AP; White House).
Iranian Military Drill
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy conducted large-scale drills in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, firing cruise and ballistic missiles as well as drones at simulated targets (AP). Iran warned the United States to avoid approaching its forces during the exercises (Newsweek). Iran also hosted a separate Shanghai Cooperation Organization counterterrorism exercise, with Azerbaijan, Iraq, Oman, and Saudi Arabia participating (Reuters).