China grew its arsenal of operational nuclear warheads from five hundred to six hundred in roughly the year until mid-2024, the Department of Defense said; this year’s report did not repeat a projection made in 2022 that China could have 1,500 warheads by the middle of the 2030s—which would bring it close to the amount deployed by the United States in Russia—though an unnamed U.S. defense official told the Financial Times that the Pentagon was being cautious with the latest forecast (FT)
Its annual report on Beijing’s military capabilities discussed recent corruption scandals in the armed forces, saying graft among senior ranks “may have disrupted” progress toward the country’s 2027 target for military modernization (Department of Defense)
A purge following graft scandals has reached every service of China’s military, the report said; it also cited the ongoing construction of new nuclear silos and the growing potential of attacks that could target the nearby U.S. territory of Guam (WaPo)
China remains on track to have an arsenal of more than one thousand warheads by the end of the decade, per the report, though at present it has not shown the type of capabilities needed to invade Taiwan (NYT)
A Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington said Beijing opposes the “Cold War” thinking of the report but did not dispute any specific facts (AP)
Taiwan Government Discussing Collaboration With Amazon’s Project Kuiper on Satellite-Based Communications
Taipei aims to make mobile phone and internet infrastructure more resilient as tensions rise with China; Taiwanese officials said that factors including Elon Musk’s past comments on Taiwan’s political status and future ruled out working with Starlink, the Financial Times reported (FT)
Chinese Officials Make Rare Visit to Taiwan for Annual Taipei Shanghai City Forum
It is one of the few venues for high-level dialogue after China cut off a regular dialogue mechanism with Taiwan’s government in 2016; Taipei’s mayor said he hoped for “more dialogue and less confrontation” (WaPo)
Shanghai’s vice mayor said tours from his city to Taipei would restart, though Beijing continued to send warplanes and ships into the Taiwan strait even as the forum was taking place (Reuters)
U.S. Conducts First-Ever Ballistic Missile Interception Test From Guam
Yesterday’s successful test underscores the role the U.S. territory, home to Air Force and Navy facilities, could play in any Pacific war; Washington has plans to establish missile defenses at sixteen sites around the island over the next decade, Reuters reported (Reuters)
Taiwan Flags Unusual Large-Scale Chinese Naval Activity
China deployed navy assets in an area running from the southern Japanese islands down into the South China Sea, the largest such activity in decades, Taiwan’s defense ministry said today; China’s military did not immediately comment and had not previously announced exercises (Reuters)
Beijing Announces Sanctions on Thirteen U.S. Military Firms
The sanctions followed Washington’s authorization of a potential $385-plus million arms sale to Taiwan and Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s visit to a U.S. territory; U.S. defense companies are typically already largely banned from doing business in China (Reuters, NYT)
Taiwan’s President to Visit Pacific Islands in First Foreign Trip
Lai Ching-te will visit allies Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu in his first overseas trip as president later this month into early next; the Pacific island countries are among the group of twelve countries that have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan (NHK)
Tech Research Firm Found Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Chip Inside a Huawei Product
The China-based company Huawei is subject to U.S. export controls intended to prevent access to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) chips; the report suggests Huawei’s lack of self-sufficiency in the most advanced chips and the difficulty of enforcing export controls (Reuters)
TSMC said it has not supplied chips to Huawei since mid-September 2020; the U.S. Commerce Department said it was aware of the reporting (CNBC)
Trump Threatens Tariffs on China If It Enters Taiwan
Former President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that if China were to “go into” Taiwan, he would “tax” China at 150 to 200 percent, referring to imposing tariffs; he added he “wouldn’t have to” use military force against a blockade on Taiwan because Chinese President Xi Jinping “respects” him (WSJ)
China’s Coast Guard Warns Japanese Fishing Boat That It “Illegally” Entered Its Territorial Waters
The encounter occurred near the uninhabited Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands off the northeast shore of Taiwan that both countries claim as theirs; China cautioned Japan’s boat to clear out, the latest in a slew of disputes in the countries’ shared waterways (SCMP)
China Kicks Off War Games in Taiwan Strait
The large-scale air and sea drills began today in nine areas surrounding Taiwan as part of Beijing’s warning against “separatist acts” by Taipei’s independence forces; a regional command of the Chinese military said they were “prepared for battle” (Nikkei)
The drills follow just days after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s first National Day speech, where he said China had “no right to represent Taiwan” (FT)
Taiwan Reasserts Territorial Sovereignty Ahead of National Day
In a speech, President Lai Ching-te rejected the characterization of the People’s Republic of China as Taiwan’s “motherland,” emphasizing that the PRC “has no right” to represent Taiwan because it was established nearly thirty-eight years before Taiwan (CNN)
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson responded to his remarks saying that Beijing was the “sole legal representative” of China (WaPo)
Japanese Warship Sails Through Taiwan Strait for First Time
Japan was accompanied by Australian and New Zealand vessels in the transit, unnamed government sources told Nikkei; Japan followed countries such as the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom in conducting freedom-of-navigation exercises in the Taiwan Strait (Nikkei)
Meanwhile, talks between dozens of U.S. and Taiwanese firms on collaborating on drone production wrapped up yesterday in Taipei as Taiwan hopes to play a bigger role in supply chains for Western drones; both Washington and Taipei hope to chip away at China’s position as the world’s largest manufacturer of commercial drones (NYT)
China Test Launches Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
China said it fired a missile carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean this morning, the country’s first public test launch into international waters in decades; while Beijing called the event a “routine” part of annual training, several analysts suggest this is unusual and could be a signal or posturing to the United States (BBC)
U.S., Chinese Pacific Commanders Hold Call to Manage Rivalry
Today’s long-anticipated conversation aimed to reduce the risk of “misperception or miscalculation,” the White House said; it’s part of a restoration of military-to-military communication that Beijing slashed with Washington in August 2022 after then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) visited Taipei (CNN)
Sullivan Wraps Trip to China as Pacific Island Nations Talk Policing
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and held rare talks with a top Chinese general as part of his visit to manage bilateral relations this week; he is returning to Washington with plans for U.S. President Joe Biden to hold a phone call with Xi in the coming weeks (Bloomberg)
The White House said Sullivan discussed security issues in the Taiwan Strait, Ukraine, and South China Sea, and that “both sides welcomed ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication” (White House)
Xi said the two countries should be “a stable source of world peace,” Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported (FT)
Sullivan’s trip came as Pacific Island nations have been meeting in Tonga this week to weigh their own responses to security concerns; they committed yesterday to a $271 million Australia-funded policing program that some island nations described as trying to curb China’s security role in the region (AFP)
Jake Sullivan Makes First Visit to China by U.S. National Security Advisor in Eight Years
Sullivan began a three-day visit to Beijing today that continues a push to stabilize U.S.-China relations since they hit a low point in early 2023; Sullivan and Yi are expected to discuss topics including military tensions in the Pacific and regarding Taiwan (Reuters)
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the talks aim to “overcome interference and remove obstacles” to stronger bilateral ties, while Sullivan said the two countries are “working to ensure that competition does not veer into conflict” (Nikkei,FT)
Several events ahead of the visit have thrown tension points in the bilateral relationship into sharp focus; Japan’s most senior government spokesperson said today that a Chinese military plane violated Japanese airspace for the first time in a “totally unacceptable” move that threatened national security (FT,FT)
Taiwan Plans Record Military Spending
The island’s budget calls for spending some $20 billion, or the equivalent of 2.45 percent of its estimated gross domestic product (GDP), on defense next year; Taiwan has been purchasing new equipment including fighter jets as part of a multiyear military modernization plan (Bloomberg, CNA)
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te opened the Ketagalan Forum in Taipei today, calling for unity from Taiwan’s partners “as we support the democratic umbrella;” former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former Japanese Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko are speaking, with representatives coming from eleven countries (Taipei Times)
Taiwan also carried out a rare missile test launch yesterday from a site on the island’s southeastern coast(Reuters)
Taiwan Begins Annual War Games to Simulate How Its Forces Would Repeal a Potential Chinese Invasion
The drills include stepped-up nighttime operations for the first time, though some exercises have been partially reduced due to an approaching typhoon (Reuters,CNA)
China Calls Off Arms Control Talks With U.S. Over Weapons Sales to Taiwan
Beijing is ceasing arms control and nuclear nonproliferation talks with Washington due to the sales to Taipei, with China’s foreign ministry saying “the U.S. must respect China’s core interests and create the necessary conditions for dialogue;” eight months ago, the two countries had their first formal talks on the issue in nearly five years (SCMP)
A U.S. State Department spokesperson called the decision “unfortunate” and said the United States would continue to support its allies and partners in the region, adding that “China has chosen to follow Russia’s lead in asserting that engagement on arms control can’t proceed when there are other challenges” (WaPo)
Officials Submitting Plans to Allow Civil Services and Infrastructure to Continue Functioning in a Hypothetical War With China
The proposals to President Lai Ching-te include building up energy stockpiles and emergency medical capacity and bolstering communications infrastructure, unnamed government officials told the Financial Times (FT)
Taiwan Raises Travel Warning for China After Death Penalty Threat
Taiwan has raised its travel warning for China after Beijing announced last week that it would enact new sentences on “diehard supporters” of Taiwanese independence, including the death penalty; Taiwan says its citizens should not visit China unless it is absolutely necessary (AFP)
Biden Administration Approves $360 Million Weapons Package to Taiwan
Washington is selling 1,000 armed drones to Taipei, including 720 lightweight Switchblade one-way attack drones that have also been used in Ukraine’s offensive against Russia (AP)
Chinese Submarine Surfaces in Taiwan Strait
A Chinese nuclear submarine has surfaced near Taiwanese fishermen in the Taiwan Strait; Taiwan’s defense minister said that they have a “grasp” of the situation and are monitoring it (Reuters)