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Region

Europe and Eurasia

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has fundamentally transformed the European security landscape. Ukraine’s partners have coordinated to provide military assistance, economic support, and humanitarian aid to defend its sovereignty while imposing sweeping sanctions to deter further Russian aggression. In a challenge to NATO, Russia has stepped up gray-zone operations across Europe, including launching drone incursions to test the alliance’s cohesion. Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has also weakened its traditional role as a security guarantor in the South Caucasus. That shift in regional dynamics contributed to Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and continues to shape efforts to secure a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Related Conflicts

Soldiers stand at attention in front of mountains.

Tensions Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Type
Territorial Dispute
Impact on U.S.
Limited
Status
Improving

Azerbaijan’s September 2023 offensive ended the decades-long Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, forcing the enclave’s dissolution and the flight of over one hundred thousand Armenians. A U.S.-brokered summit in August 2025 produced a joint peace declaration and an initialed peace agreement, with a planned transit corridor through southern Armenia to be constructed in 2026. Full ratification hinges on Armenia amending its constitution to remove territorial claims, a process tied to a 2027 referendum.

A soldier hunches in a trench while smoking a cigarette.

War in Ukraine

Type
Interstate War
Impact on U.S.
Significant
Status
Unchanging

Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has killed over one million people and left Russia occupying roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has countered with long-range drone strikes that have knocked out up to 40 percent of Russia’s refining capacity, while Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities. U.S.-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine have yet to produce a ceasefire, and the two sides remain divided over territorial concessions and security guarantees for Ukraine.