Cyber Clash With China (UNSC)

Fictional, set in the present day. Cyberspace is a new domain of conflict that has few accepted standards of behavior. Basic questions about it—including how countries should respond to cyberattacks—are still unresolved. In recent years, China has exerted authority over areas of the South China Sea also claimed by other Asian countries, leading to tension with the United States. Last week, following a near miss when the U.S. Air Force conducted a flight near a shoal claimed by China in the South China Sea, the Nasdaq stock market was hacked, which significantly harmed the U.S. economy. U.S. intelligence agencies believe some in the Chinese government knew about the attack, for which a Chinese hacker collective claimed credit. UN Security Council members need to control the issue before it escalates further. 

China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam have competing territorial claims in the South China Sea. In recent years, China has exerted authority over the area by increasing the size of existing islands or creating new ones. China has also constructed new ports, military installations, and airstrips. The United States has promoted the right of military vessels to operate in China’s claimed two-hundred-mile exclusive economic zone. The United States has also rejected China’s claim to a twelve-mile territorial zone around the artificial islands it has built. Since 2015, the United States has signaled its opposition by flying military aircraft and sending U.S. Navy ships near certain islands.

Last week, the U.S. Air Force conducted a flight near a shoal claimed by China in the South China Sea. Three days later, the Nasdaq Stock Market suffered a hack that damaged computers and forced the suspension of trading for two days. This imposed significant costs on several major multinational companies and dented confidence in the U.S. financial system. An underground hacker collective based in China known as the Zheng He Squadron has claimed responsibility for the hack. The group has known ties to the People’s Liberation Army, China’s military. U.S. intelligence agencies assess with 90 percent certainty that the hack occurred with the knowledge or support of parts of the Chinese government. Beijing claims no knowledge of the attack. 

The U.S. secretary of state has declared that the attack represents a grave threat to U.S. national security and that Washington is considering all options, including military action, in response. In an effort to manage the dispute and avoid escalation, the UN Secretary-General has convened a meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss and take possible action on the cyber conflict between two of the Security Council’s permanent members, the United States and China. 

CFR Education extended simulations use a variety of pedagogical tools to create an effective, meaningful, and memorable learning experience for students that builds their global literacy. Students will develop crucial skills such as critical thinking, communication, collaboration, and creativity. Students will complete authentic assessments that feel relevant: instead of five-paragraph essays and book reports, students will write policy memos and participate in a role-play of a meeting of a foreign policy–making body. There are no right or wrong answers in actual policy deliberations, and there are none here, either; students will walk away from this experience with an appreciation for the complexity of policy questions.

In this simulation, students will learn about the UN Security Council, as well as meeting these learning outcomes specific to this simulation:

Concepts 

Issues 

This section presents context, potential benefits and drawbacks, and other information about the policy options outlined in the case that you may find helpful as you guide the role-play and assess students.

The United Nations has sought to define the rules of behavior for cyberspace for nearly two decades. As cyberweapons become more sophisticated and widespread and their use increasingly risks escalation or unintended global consequences, this task has grown more urgent. However, the UN Security Council has yet to specifically address the issue of cybersecurity in a formal setting, though it has addressed the issue in informal discussions and as it relates to broader subjects. As the threat cyberwarfare poses grows more apparent, council members will need to consider what role they can play to prevent or respond to cyber clashes to maintain international peace and security.

Furthermore, although the dispute at hand is primarily between the United States and China, its roots in the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea give it far-reaching implications. Several other countries involved in maritime disputes with China—including Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam—will have an interest in how the Security Council can manage or resolve the dispute and the broader issue of cyber behavior. Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam have also been targets of Chinese cyberattacks. Moreover, the United Nations has yet to successfully deescalate disputes in the South China Sea. This impacts countries’ access to fishing rights, oil exploration, and shipping lanes. To date, the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration has primarily addressed territorial claims. The court has dismissed China’s claims of its “historic title” in the South China Sea in a case brought by the Philippines and other countries in 2016. However, China has so far ignored its rulings. The Security Council could offer an avenue to more robust action or more fruitful negotiations.

Securing any council action in the dispute is likely to be difficult. Given that both parties to this dispute, the United States and China, are veto-bearing permanent members of the Security Council, the council’s influence in this matter is likely to be modest. Both countries will be able to block any action they perceive as against their interests. Therefore, policy options that criticize or impose penalties on either party, including sanctions, are likely to be exceedingly difficult for the council to approve. A country could still propose such resolutions in an attempt to embarrass the other side and force it to use its veto. Security Council members will need to explore what action is possible given the likelihood of a U.S. or Chinese veto and how to negotiate the support of permanent members. Members could explore actions that could prevent the crisis from escalating, even if the Security Council cannot impose a comprehensive resolution. Some members could also use this occasion to advance broader norms of behavior in cyberspace. In general, member states will need to weigh the desire for a timely response to a crisis against the need to secure support from as many council members as possible, especially permanent members. 

The principal policy options available in this case are discussed below. These responses are available individually, in combination, or all together. 

Call on the United States and China to negotiate

Council members could adopt a resolution calling on the United States and China to enter negotiations over their behavior in the South China Sea and in cyberspace. Negotiations could occur through the offices of the secretary-general or another respected authority. This option would be the easiest to implement. It bears the least risk of drawing a U.S. or Chinese veto. Negotiations could steer the current clash away from escalation. They could also facilitate a broader discussion of both countries’ practices in cyberspace. However, it is also the least likely to have lasting effects. The United States and China could be reluctant to accept the outcome of any international arbitration. Indeed, Beijing has ignored prior rulings by the International Court of Justice regarding the South China Sea. In addition, this option does nothing to address the establishment of broader norms in cyberspace.

Manage the dispute within the UN Security Council

The Security Council could attempt to address the dispute using its own powers. This option could include several actions. The council could commission a report on how the dispute has been managed with recommendations for how to manage the dispute without escalation. Council members could further adopt a resolution prohibiting certain actions, such as military responses or cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, in an attempt to prevent escalation. Finally, Security Council members could propose sanctions on one or both parties as punishment for their actions and as a deterrent to escalation.

Defining what actions are appropriate in the current conflict could prevent escalation and also set a precedent for the negotiation of future cyber norms. However, commissioning a report and recommendations would take significant time. Securing the consent of both the United States and China to place limitations on either country’s actions would be difficult. Imposing any form of sanctions is likely impossible. Council members pursuing this option will need to consider what actions are most likely to allow consensus and whether proposing actions that will force a veto is worthwhile as a tactic to shame one or both parties. 

Use the dispute to establish broader cyber norms

The Security Council could use this dispute as an opportunity to debate norms of conduct in cyberspace more broadly. This could include questions regarding what types of targets are appropriate and whether and when kinetic military measures (i.e., those against physical targets) are justified in response to cyberattacks. Given the binding nature of UN Security Council resolutions, a resolution that establishes a strong standard of conduct in cyberspace provides the council with an avenue to deter or punish future attacks. Such a resolution could also establish a committee within the Security Council to address cybersecurity issues as they arise, similar to its counterterrorism committee. 
However, reaching consensus on an issue as broad as cyber practices will take time. This could allow the current dispute at hand to potentially escalate unaddressed. Moreover, given that other UN forums on cyber practices have failed to reach consensus, often largely because of the United States, China, and Russia, the Security Council is not guaranteed to prove more effective. 

Do Nothing

The Security Council could decide it is unable to take meaningful action on the dispute in light of conflicting interests among council members. In this case, Security Council members could issue a presidential statement expressing concern about the situation but ultimately leave action up to individual countries. If the situation worsens, however, council members could revisit the matter.

CFR Education extended simulations are project-based learning activities. Project-based learning (PBL) leads to better learning outcomes and improves skills, and is more fun than traditional instructional methods. The website that students will navigate throughout the simulation is divided into several parts:

In the UNSC Guide, students will learn about the UN Security Council, the body they will be simulating. Included are details on its history, how it works, who its major players are, and more. There is also a video interview with experts who have served on the body.

In the Case Notes, students dive into the actual situation they will be trying to solve in their simulation. At the beginning is a clear decision point: the question that students will debate during the role-play. This is followed by detailed background material and a discussion of the role that the United Nations plays.

Preparation and Role-Play includes details on the various roles students could take on, guidelines for the draft resolution clauses they will write, as well as an outline of how the discussion will flow during the role-play.

The Wrap-Up is an important part of the project and includes reflection questions and guidelines for reflecting in a class discussion and in a second memorandum. For historical cases, this section also includes a short description of how the decision point was addressed by policymakers in real life.

The simulation also includes Student Resources, which include a reading list to support research, additional directions and exemplars for writing assignments, and other tips students may find helpful.

Once students have read the simulation and prepared their draft clauses, here is how we recommend structuring the role-play:

Tips for the President of the UN Security Council
In Round 1, you will chair a formal session. Make absolutely sure that every country gives their opening statement before any country is allowed to speak a second time. You will also have to use your judgment about when to move into the more informal meeting of Round 2. Give enough time for students to flesh out their positions and to identify potential allies, but do not wait too long—the most productive negotiations happen in informal meetings, so you want to save time for those in Round 2.

In Round 2, you will call on speakers one at a time. The time limits on speeches are a little looser, so pay close attention to make sure everyone is included and no one dominates. Deciding whether to grant a break for negotiations is a matter of balance. Negotiations can be advanced in small-group discussions, but it is also important for the whole body to be updated on what goes on during the breaks. You will want to strike a balance between breaks for negotiating, and informal meeting time for giving updates and rounding up support for resolutions. It is often helpful to set a deadline for the end of Round 2 to encourage negotiators to come to agreements in a timely manner.

In Round 3, completed draft resolutions will be presented, discussed, and voted on. Before starting, make sure you are clear on the order in which the resolutions were submitted and who is sponsoring each one. When it comes time to vote, it will be helpful to remind everyone of the unique voting rules of the Security Council. If none of the resolutions passes, you can allow further debate and attempt to vote again, or you can move on and guide the council through debate on a presidential statement. Use your judgment about which process is more likely to be successful.

Tips for Online Classes

We suggest conducting the role-play in three rounds and that three-round structure is a helpful way to approach chunking the role-play for online learning as well. You can conduct each round synchronously or asynchronously.

In round one, participants present their positions.

In round two, participants debate the various policy options.

In round three, debate begins to coalesce around the draft resolutions that have substantial support.

Each CFR Education extended simulation involves writing assignments that help students think through policy options and reflect on their learning experience.

In UNSC cases, there are two types of writing assignments.

Simulations have instructions for written assignments (found under the Student Facing Simulation), rubrics, and samples for each of these writing exercises. 

Samples:

Below are sample rubrics for your use in assessing the writing students will do as part of this extended simulation.

These are single-point rubrics. Jennifer Gonzalez, who writes the blog Cult of Pedagogy, has a great explainer, but the bottom line is that single-point rubrics are relatively easy for students to digest but still have all the advantages of giving structure to instructors’ feedback.

UN Security Council Draft Clauses Rubric

UN Security Council Written Reflection Rubric

Downloadable rubrics are available here: