Russia’s Large-Scale Attack on Energy Infrastructure
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia disregarded ongoing U.S. peace efforts by conducting an attack on energy infrastructure on Monday night; he further stated that Kyiv will work with Washington to discuss consequences for Russia (Reuters)
Russian Defense Ministry Claims It Now Controls Prydorozhnie Settlement
Russia’s Defense Ministry stated it pushed out Ukrainian forces and took control of the Prydorozhnie settlement in the Zaporizhzhia region in southeastern Ukraine (Reuters)
Russia Strikes Ukrainian Miners
A Russian air strike killed at least twelve miners in southeastern Ukraine, the company that runs the mine said (DTEK Group)
The strike came after Trump said last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to temporarily halt strikes on Kyiv and other targets (White House)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that a new round of trilateral peace talks is scheduled soon, urging the United States to help de-escalate tensions and reduce strikes (Zelenskyy)
Separately, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia will soon achieve a military victory in the war (Reuters)
Reported Pause in Ukraine Strikes
Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to suspend attacks on some Ukrainian cities for a week due to extreme cold weather, following a personal appeal (AP)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that the matter had been discussed during last week’s Abu Dhabi talks (X)
The next round of direct talks is scheduled for this weekend in Abu Dhabi, though Zelenskyy said the situation in Iran could delay them (Reuters)
Russian Drone Strike Kills Three in Zaporizhzhia
A Russian drone strike killed three and wounded three others in the Zaporizhzhia region of southeastern Ukraine; over the past day, Russia has launched over eight hundred strikes across thirty-four settlements in the region (Reuters)
Ukraine War Casualties
As many as 325,000 Russian troops and 140,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine almost four years ago, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated in a new report; Russia’s total war casualties—including wounded and missing soldiers—total around 1.2 million people, the study found (CSIS)
That would mean Russia has amassed the highest number of casualties among major powers in any conflict since World War II (CNN)
Moscow and Kyiv have rarely issued public estimates of military losses; the study cited estimates by Western officials (WaPo)
Kremlin Reaffirms Territorial Demands
The Kremlin said territorial control remains fundamental to any deal to end the war in Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin insists Russia must secure the entire Donbas region despite U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi ending without agreement (Reuters)
Trilateral Peace Talks Conclude in Abu Dhabi
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called talks with Russian and U.S. envoys on Friday “constructive” in a social media post, adding that the next round could take place as early as next week (X)
A document detailing U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine was “100 percent ready” for signing, Zelenskyy said at a news conference (Al Jazeera)
Even as diplomacy moves forward, Russian air attacks cut power to 1.2 million Ukrainian properties for part of the weekend (Reuters)
Trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi
Envoys from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are meeting for the first known trilateral talks since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 (CNN)
Russia’s delegation in Abu Dhabi is led by top intelligence official Admiral Igor Olegovich Kostyukov (Reuters)
Ukraine’s delegation includes top negotiator Rustem Umerov, deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office Kyrylo Budanov, and Andrii Hnatov, chief of general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces (CNN)
Witkoff and Kushner are also expected to be in Abu Dhabi today, TASS reported (TASS)
Although it was not immediately clear whether they would take part in the trilateral talks, Witkoff will participate in a separate U.S.-Russia economic dialogue while there (Al Jazeera)
Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Davos, where Zelenskyy said security guarantees for Ukraine had been finalized, but territorial control remained unresolved (Reuters)
Zelenskyy at Davos: Europe and Ukraine’s Destinies Are Interconnected
He called for greater European unity and military strength (NYT)
As Russia, Ukraine, and the United States prepare to meet for trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that he believed both sides “want to make a deal” (White House)
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had a lengthy meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, who said the possibility of a long-term settlement depended on one issue (Le Monde/AFP)
Russian Attack on Kyiv
Overnight Russian strikes disabled much of Kyiv’s electricity, water, and heating supply, Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on social media (FT;Telegram)
Russian forces used ballistic and cruise missiles and more than three hundred drones to carry out strikes across Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote (X)
Russia has continually targeted Ukraine’s power grid each wartime winter, and Zelenskyy warned Moscow was preparing another “massive strike” in the coming days (X)
Meanwhile, Russian and U.S. envoys held talks at Davos on a potential peace settlement in Ukraine, while Ukrainian envoys met with European counterparts (TASS;Telegram)
Witkoff described the talks with Russian envoys as positive, but said “land deals” remained an outstanding issue (CNBC)
Rising Civilian Deaths in Ukraine
Conflict-related violence killed 2,514 civilians in Ukraine last year, more than any year since the war’s start in 2022, the UN human rights office said; the 31 percent rise in civilian deaths and injuries was due not only to expanded frontline fighting but also to heightened use of long-range weapons, a UN official said (UN)
Russian Pushback on Troops in Ukraine
Russia would consider any Western troop deployments or military facilities in Ukraine “legitimate combat targets,” its foreign ministry said; the statement was a response to France’s and the United Kingdom’s plans to deploy troops to the country as part of postwar security guarantees (Reuters)
France and UK Pledge to Deploy Troops to Postwar Ukraine
France and the UK signed a declaration of intent to deploy forces to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal as U.S. envoys discussed plans for ceasefire monitoring at a Paris meeting (UKG)
The two countries plan to establish military hubs across Ukraine and build facilities for defense equipment (WSJ)
French President Emmanuel Macron said he expected other nations to soon join in pledging troops, as the mostly European group also declared it was ready to commit to post-truce guarantees, including a U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism (FT;President of Ukraine)
A group of Ukraine’s allies, who dub themselves the Coalition of the Willing, have for months been meeting without the United States; they hailed Washington’s participation in the summit as major progress (Reuters)
While the United States did not sign the declaration, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said after the summit that President Donald Trump “strongly stands behind security protocols” (Guardian)
Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as well as the top U.S. general in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, also participated in talks (AP)
Unnamed officials told media outlets that the proposed U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism would include unmanned drones, sensors, and satellites rather than U.S. troops (Al Jazeera)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that solidifying details on Ukraine’s postwar security architecture brought the country closer to peace, though Russia did not immediately comment on the developments (AP)
Russian Strike on Kyiv Kills Two Civilians
Ukrainian authorities said an overnight Russian air attack killed two people in what appeared to be the first reported deaths from Russian strikes on the capital this year (Reuters)
Ukraine’s Government Shakeup
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy named a new head of his presidential office and new nominees for defense minister and energy minister (President of Ukraine;FT)
The new head of Zelenskyy’s presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov, is one of the few officials to have maintained communication channels with Moscow throughout the war (BBC)
Zelenskyy Plans to Replace Southern Air Commander
Following deadly Russian strikes on Odesa, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to replace the head of the Southern Air Command, Dmytro Karpenko (Kyiv Independent)
Separately, the Institute for the Study of War indicated Russian forces have likely seized Siversk—a town with a pre-war population of less than 11,000—after forty-one months of fighting (ISW)
Russian Strike on Odesa Kills Eight, Wounds Dozens
A Russian ballistic missile strike on port infrastructure in Odesa killed at least eight people and wounded twenty-seven (CNN)
The Kyiv Independent reported that Russian attacks have caused chronic power outages in Odesa city since December 13 (Kyiv Independent)
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s General Staff said Ukrainian drones hit a Russian oil rig, the military patrol ship Okhotnik, and a drilling platform at the Filanovsky oil and gas field in the Caspian Sea that is operated by Russian oil giant Lukoil (AP)
EU Agrees to $105 Billion Loan for Ukraine After Frozen Assets Plan Fails
EU countries will lend $105 billion to Ukraine, bloc leaders decided (Reuters)
Money for the loan will be backed by the bloc’s budget rather than by frozen Russian assets, ending months of debate about the possibility of using those reserves, which could have created a larger loan; still, the amount is expected to cover much of Ukraine’s projected budget gap for the next two years (NYT)
The International Monetary Fund estimates that Ukraine’s military and nonmilitary financial needs for the next two years total around $158 billion (European Commission)
Belgium, which houses the majority of Russia’s frozen reserves in Europe, opposed their use as collateral (FT)
Russia had threatened lawsuits and other retaliation should the assets be used (WaPo)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it “significant support that truly strengthens our resilience” in a social media post (X)
French President Emmanuel Macron called on European countries to engage directly with Russia to end the war rather than have their positions relayed through third parties (Reuters)
Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual year-end press conference today, which lasted over four hours (CNN)
U.S. Defense Bill Continues Support for Ukraine
The bill includes $400 million in assistance for Ukraine for each of the next two fiscal years; it blocks the United States from reducing troop levels in Europe below seventy-six thousand—near the current level—without consultations with NATO, despite a pledge in the Trump administration’s recent National Security Strategy to deprioritize Europe (FT)
It also renews security cooperation with Baltic countries (Latvia MoFA)
Ukraine War Damages Commission
The Netherlands will host an international commission that aims to force Russia to compensate Ukraine for damages from its war; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European officials attended a launch event for the commission in the Hague (Reuters)
It is unclear how the group hopes to compel Russia to pay, though early discussions focus on using Russia’s frozen assets in Europe (BBC)
European Joint Statement on Security Guarantees for Ukraine
U.S. and European leaders committed to working toward a “legally binding commitment” to defend Ukraine in the event of a future attack, European leaders said in a joint statement (European Council)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as unnamed U.S. officials, told reporters that Washington had offered security guarantees akin to those in NATO (NYT)
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the current talks represent “the opportunity for a genuine peace process” (Politico)
Merz has invited U.S. officials to attend a separate meeting in Berlin with Ukraine and European leaders later today, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO chief Mark Rutte; European officials are preparing for a meeting later this week where they are expected to make a long-awaited decision on what to do with frozen Russian assets held in Europe (Guardian)
A Kremlin spokesperson said Moscow expects an update from Washington after today’s meeting (Reuters)
Ukraine Offers to Drop NATO Membership Aspiration
Zelenskyy said Kyiv is willing to forego NATO aspirations in exchange for security guarantees from Western allies; Zelenskyy said that Kyiv seeks bilateral security guarantees from the United States that are similar to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, as well as from other partners such as European countries, Canada, and Japan (FT)
Those comments came ahead of talks with the United States and Germany in Berlin; German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is hosting the talks, while U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is also representing the U.S. side (Politico)
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff wrote on social media that “a lot of progress” had been made (X)
This is the first in-depth U.S.-Ukraine meeting since Kyiv sent Washington its response last week to a U.S.-proposed peace plan (CFR)
EU Indefinitely Freezes Russian Assets
An indefinite extension is a technical step toward implementing a much-debated proposal to use the Russian assets to back a loan to Ukraine; the decision marks the European Union’s latest bid to support Ukraine as the United States urges a resolution to the war by Christmas (Reuters)
Russia’s central bank announced today that it is suing Belgian-based financial group Euroclear in a Moscow arbitration court to halt the European plan to freeze its assets (Interfax)
Euroclear holds the majority of Russia’s frozen sovereign assets in Europe (Guardian)
The Russian central bank vowed to pursue additional lawsuits over the asset freeze, which the EU voted to indefinitely extend rather than maintain the current requirement to renew the freeze every six months (FT)
Ukraine Presents Revised Peace Proposals
The new proposal comes as talks reach a “critical moment,” per a joint statement from the prime ministers of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom following a call with U.S. President Donald Trump (France 24; BBC)
As he prepared for a meeting today with thirty countries supporting Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said key sticking points involve control of Donetsk and the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; U.S. negotiators proposed options such as demilitarized zones in the Donbas and joint oversight of the nuclear facility, though Kyiv rejected withdrawing from territory without reciprocal Russian pullbacks (AP)
Zelenskyy said that U.S. President Donald Trump was pushing for the holiday deadline, though the White House press secretary said Trump had not decided if Washington would participate in further negotiations over the weekend in Europe (Axios;White House)
The Wall Street Journal also reported that the Trump administration’s Ukraine peace proposals include restoring Russian energy exports to Europe, expanding U.S. investment in Russia, and using $200 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets for reconstruction projects (WSJ)
Zelenskyy said Ukraine and the United States are in complete agreement over key principles for the reconstruction framework (Reuters)