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War in Ukraine
Overnight Drone Strike Kills Three
- An overnight Russian drone strike near Kharkiv struck a home, killing three people; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the attack undermined diplomatic efforts (AP)
- Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine would only hold elections after a ceasefire with Russia and security guarantees were in place (Guardian)
- His comments followed a Financial Times report that Washington had urged Kyiv to hold a presidential election and a referendum on a peace deal with Russia by May 15 or risk losing proposed U.S. security guarantees (FT)
Russia Strikes Odesa Energy Infrastructure
Russian Forces Pushing Forward Around Pokrovsk
- Kyiv’s military reported that Russian forces are attempting to press forward around Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine by exploiting weakened air defense systems; the move comes as Moscow continues its attempts to capture the Donetsk region (Reuters)
- Separately, the EU is considering fast-tracking certain membership protections for Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal, unnamed sources told Bloomberg; a European Commission spokesperson said Kyiv’s future accession to the EU is being discussed in peace talks (Bloomberg)
Russian Airstrike Kills One
- A Russian airstrike on a residential area in the city of Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region killed one person and wounded two others; the airstrike comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the United States has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline for reaching a peace deal (AP)
Russian General Shot
- Vladimir Alekseyev, a senior Russian general, was shot and wounded in Moscow today by an attacker who fled the scene, Russia’s Investigative Committee said (CNN)
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov blamed Ukraine for the attack; Ukrainian authorities did not immediately comment (Reuters)
- Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters the United States wants Russia and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement by June, adding that Washington would likely pressure both sides to do so (AP)
- Meanwhile, a Ukrainian military intelligence report found that North Korean troops are providing skilled assistance to Russia’s war efforts; per the report, North Korea has increased its involvement by launching artillery, including multiple-launch rocket systems, from southern Russia (WSJ)
Takeaways From Ukraine Talks
- Russia and Ukraine each agreed to release 157 prisoners of war during trilateral talks with the United States in Abu Dhabi this week, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff wrote on social media; Witkoff added that the United States and Russia had agreed to re-establish military-to-military contacts that had been frozen shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (SE Witkoff)
- It marks their first prisoner swap in at least five months (Politico)
Second Round of Abu Dhabi Talks Begin
- Ukraine and Russia concluded the first day of U.S-backed peace talks in Abu Dhabi; Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, described the talks as “productive” (Reuters)
- Shortly after the negotiations began, a Russian shelling using cluster munitions in a crowded market in Druzhkivka killed at least seven and wounded fifteen (Al-Jazeera)
Russia’s Large-Scale Attack on Energy Infrastructure
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia disregarded ongoing U.S. peace efforts by conducting an attack on energy infrastructure on Monday night; he further stated that Kyiv will work with Washington to discuss consequences for Russia (Reuters)
Russian Defense Ministry Claims It Now Controls Prydorozhnie Settlement
- Russia’s Defense Ministry stated it pushed out Ukrainian forces and took control of the Prydorozhnie settlement in the Zaporizhzhia region in southeastern Ukraine (Reuters)
Russia Strikes Ukrainian Miners
- A Russian air strike killed at least twelve miners in southeastern Ukraine, the company that runs the mine said (DTEK Group)
- The strike came after Trump said last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to temporarily halt strikes on Kyiv and other targets (White House)
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that a new round of trilateral peace talks is scheduled soon, urging the United States to help de-escalate tensions and reduce strikes (Zelenskyy)
- Separately, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia will soon achieve a military victory in the war (Reuters)
Reported Pause in Ukraine Strikes
- Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to suspend attacks on some Ukrainian cities for a week due to extreme cold weather, following a personal appeal (AP)
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that the matter had been discussed during last week’s Abu Dhabi talks (X)
- The next round of direct talks is scheduled for this weekend in Abu Dhabi, though Zelenskyy said the situation in Iran could delay them (Reuters)
Russian Drone Strike Kills Three in Zaporizhzhia
- A Russian drone strike killed three and wounded three others in the Zaporizhzhia region of southeastern Ukraine; over the past day, Russia has launched over eight hundred strikes across thirty-four settlements in the region (Reuters)
Ukraine War Casualties
- As many as 325,000 Russian troops and 140,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine almost four years ago, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated in a new report; Russia’s total war casualties—including wounded and missing soldiers—total around 1.2 million people, the study found (CSIS)
- That would mean Russia has amassed the highest number of casualties among major powers in any conflict since World War II (CNN)
- Moscow and Kyiv have rarely issued public estimates of military losses; the study cited estimates by Western officials (WaPo)
Kremlin Reaffirms Territorial Demands
- The Kremlin said territorial control remains fundamental to any deal to end the war in Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin insists Russia must secure the entire Donbas region despite U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi ending without agreement (Reuters)
Trilateral Peace Talks Conclude in Abu Dhabi
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called talks with Russian and U.S. envoys on Friday “constructive” in a social media post, adding that the next round could take place as early as next week (X)
- A document detailing U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine was “100 percent ready” for signing, Zelenskyy said at a news conference (Al Jazeera)
- Even as diplomacy moves forward, Russian air attacks cut power to 1.2 million Ukrainian properties for part of the weekend (Reuters)
Trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi
- Envoys from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are meeting for the first known trilateral talks since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 (CNN)
- Russia’s delegation in Abu Dhabi is led by top intelligence official Admiral Igor Olegovich Kostyukov (Reuters)
- Ukraine’s delegation includes top negotiator Rustem Umerov, deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office Kyrylo Budanov, and Andrii Hnatov, chief of general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces (CNN)
- Witkoff and Kushner are also expected to be in Abu Dhabi today, TASS reported (TASS)
- Although it was not immediately clear whether they would take part in the trilateral talks, Witkoff will participate in a separate U.S.-Russia economic dialogue while there (Al Jazeera)
- Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Davos, where Zelenskyy said security guarantees for Ukraine had been finalized, but territorial control remained unresolved (Reuters)
Zelenskyy at Davos: Europe and Ukraine’s Destinies Are Interconnected
- He called for greater European unity and military strength (NYT)
- As Russia, Ukraine, and the United States prepare to meet for trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that he believed both sides “want to make a deal” (White House)
- U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had a lengthy meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, who said the possibility of a long-term settlement depended on one issue (Le Monde/AFP)
Russian Attack on Kyiv
- Overnight Russian strikes disabled much of Kyiv’s electricity, water, and heating supply, Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on social media (FT; Telegram)
- Russian forces used ballistic and cruise missiles and more than three hundred drones to carry out strikes across Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote (X)
- Russia has continually targeted Ukraine’s power grid each wartime winter, and Zelenskyy warned Moscow was preparing another “massive strike” in the coming days (X)
- Meanwhile, Russian and U.S. envoys held talks at Davos on a potential peace settlement in Ukraine, while Ukrainian envoys met with European counterparts (TASS; Telegram)
- Witkoff described the talks with Russian envoys as positive, but said “land deals” remained an outstanding issue (CNBC)
Rising Civilian Deaths in Ukraine
- Conflict-related violence killed 2,514 civilians in Ukraine last year, more than any year since the war’s start in 2022, the UN human rights office said; the 31 percent rise in civilian deaths and injuries was due not only to expanded frontline fighting but also to heightened use of long-range weapons, a UN official said (UN)
Russian Pushback on Troops in Ukraine
- Russia would consider any Western troop deployments or military facilities in Ukraine “legitimate combat targets,” its foreign ministry said; the statement was a response to France’s and the United Kingdom’s plans to deploy troops to the country as part of postwar security guarantees (Reuters)
France and UK Pledge to Deploy Troops to Postwar Ukraine
- France and the UK signed a declaration of intent to deploy forces to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal as U.S. envoys discussed plans for ceasefire monitoring at a Paris meeting (UKG)
- The two countries plan to establish military hubs across Ukraine and build facilities for defense equipment (WSJ)
- French President Emmanuel Macron said he expected other nations to soon join in pledging troops, as the mostly European group also declared it was ready to commit to post-truce guarantees, including a U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism (FT; President of Ukraine)
- A group of Ukraine’s allies, who dub themselves the Coalition of the Willing, have for months been meeting without the United States; they hailed Washington’s participation in the summit as major progress (Reuters)
- While the United States did not sign the declaration, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said after the summit that President Donald Trump “strongly stands behind security protocols” (Guardian)
- Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as well as the top U.S. general in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, also participated in talks (AP)
- Unnamed officials told media outlets that the proposed U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism would include unmanned drones, sensors, and satellites rather than U.S. troops (Al Jazeera)
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that solidifying details on Ukraine’s postwar security architecture brought the country closer to peace, though Russia did not immediately comment on the developments (AP)
Russian Strike on Kyiv Kills Two Civilians
- Ukrainian authorities said an overnight Russian air attack killed two people in what appeared to be the first reported deaths from Russian strikes on the capital this year (Reuters)
Ukraine’s Government Shakeup
- President Volodymyr Zelenskyy named a new head of his presidential office and new nominees for defense minister and energy minister (President of Ukraine; FT)
- The new head of Zelenskyy’s presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov, is one of the few officials to have maintained communication channels with Moscow throughout the war (BBC)
Zelenskyy Plans to Replace Southern Air Commander
- Following deadly Russian strikes on Odesa, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to replace the head of the Southern Air Command, Dmytro Karpenko (Kyiv Independent)
- Separately, the Institute for the Study of War indicated Russian forces have likely seized Siversk—a town with a pre-war population of less than 11,000—after forty-one months of fighting (ISW)