Trump Demands Global Warships Secure the Strait of Hormuz
Trump appeared to up the pressure on allies to assist the United States in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, telling the Financial Times that it would be “very bad for the future of NATO” if U.S. allies did not help reopen the waterway (FT)
Following Iran’s retaliation pledge over U.S. strikes on Kharg Island, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were targeted by air attacks, causing fires at a UAE port and airport (Bloomberg)
An Israeli military spokesperson told CNN that Israel planned for at least three more weeks of war (CNN)
Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Russia provided Iran with Shahed drones that were used against U.S. bases (The Hill)
Iran Urges UAE Port Evacuations
Iran urged citizens to evacuate the Jebel Ali port in Dubai, the Khalifa port in Abu Dhabi, and a port in Fujairah following U.S. strikes on Kharg Island on Friday; this came as Iran said that the United States had used infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates to launch Friday’s attacks (AP)
U.S. forces had struck military targets on the island, which is a hub for 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports; the island was viewed as a key vulnerability that would provoke a significant response from Iran if attacked (Reuters)
Iran continued retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region, as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates reported missile and drone attacks (Al Jazeera)
Separately, sources familiar with the matter reported that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has declined attempts by U.S. allies in the Middle East to begin diplomatic efforts to end the war; Iran has also rejected a ceasefire until U.S. and Israeli strikes come to a halt (Reuters)
Trump told NBC News that Iran was ready to end the war, which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied (NBC News)
As the Iran war enters its third week, Trump has intensified calls for allies to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz to mitigate the war’s economic impacts; in a social media post, Trump said that he hoped countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom (UK) would send forces to secure shipping through the strait (Truth Social)
After a drone struck the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad, the embassy urged Americans to leave Iraq (NPR)
Hegseth Indicates U.S. Assault to Continue
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pledged this morning to “keep advancing” with “no mercy for our enemies” (Times of Israel)
The U.S. military buildup in the region continues, with the United States deploying additional warships and thousands of marines to the Middle East, multiple news outlets reported (NYT;WSJ)
U.S. strikes on Kharg Island—home to a major Iranian oil export terminal—hit military targets, but failed to break the country’s blockade of the waterway, prompting Trump to threaten to target the island’s oil infrastructure if Iran does not fully reopen the strait (Truth Social)
Israel issued an evacuation order for parts of Tehran, while Turkey announced its NATO air defenses shot down an incoming Iranian missile, the third in two weeks (IDF;Turkey MoND)
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the United States’ decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil that was already at sea, saying that the war in Iran should not distract from support for Ukraine (German Chancellor)
New Supreme Leader Issues Defiant Statement
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued his first public statement since being appointed to the position, demanding the immediate closure of all U.S. military bases in the Middle East; the statement, read out on Iranian state television by a presenter, insisted the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as leverage against enemies (CBC)
State media also reported that Mojtaba Khamenei praised Hezbollah for aiding Iran (NYT)
Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces announced that it recently struck the Taleghan compound near Tehran, an Iranian nuclear facility allegedly used to develop advanced explosives and conduct sensitive experiments; the site was previously hit in October 2024 and recently targeted again after Israel detected Iran had begun rebuilding it (Times of Israel)
In Iraq, a French service member was killed after a pro-Iranian group said it would target French forces (French President)
At least four U.S. soldiers died in a plane crash in Iraq that U.S. Central Command said was not due to hostile or friendly fire; that event is still under investigation (CENTCOM)
Additionally, Iran intensified its retaliatory attacks, setting fire to two tankers at an Iraqi port after the vessels were struck by suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats (Reuters)
The incident prompted Iraqi authorities to suspend all oil terminal operations (NYT)
This comes as the price of Brent crude oil sits at around $97.40 a barrel, after it climbed above $100 a barrel earlier in the day (BBC)
Despite Trump claiming yesterday that “the straits are in great shape,” the IEA warned today that the war is causing “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” (IEA)
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. Navy is not currently ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, adding that such an operation is more likely to happen toward the end of the month (CNBC)
While Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations argued that Tehran would not fully close the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s semi-official Fars News Agency said ships passing through “could be at risk from missiles or rogue drones” (Reuters;Bloomberg)
In response to the near-halt in oil shipping through the strait and to increase the amount of oil on global markets, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil that was already at sea (NYT)
NYT: U.S. Struck Iranian Elementary School on War’s First Day
In what appears to be one of the deadliest civilian casualty events in recent U.S. military history, the United States struck an Iranian elementary school on the first day of the war, the New York Times reported based on preliminary findings from a U.S. military investigation (NYT)
At least 175 people were killed, according to Iranian state media (WaPo)
Outdated targeting information appears to have led the United States to launch a Tomahawk missile at the school, multiple outlets reported (CNN)
Asked for comment, the White House press secretary said the investigation was still ongoing (AP)
U.S. President Donald Trump, who previously blamed Iran for the strike, said he did not know about the preliminary findings (NBC)
His administration has slashed 90 percent of the Pentagon teams responsible for reducing civilian casualties in military operations (NPR)
Reports suggest more than 1,300 people have died in Iran, at least 570 in Lebanon, and 15 in Israel, the World Health Organization said (WHO)
At least twelve additional people have been killed across Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, according to officials in those countries (NYT)
Meanwhile, CBS News reported that dozens of U.S. troops wounded by Iranian drones in Kuwait at the start of the war remain hospitalized with injuries such as brain trauma, shrapnel wounds, and burns (CBS)
Meanwhile, Iranian military activity expanded as projectiles struck three vessels, including the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree dry bulk carrier, near the Strait of Hormuz; in a statement carried by Tasnim News Agency, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for the attack (Reuters)
At the same time, Iranian forces launched drones and missiles at targets across the Gulf, including a U.S. military base in Kuwait, while Israeli officials reported that Iran fired cluster-munition warheads toward Israel (Al Jazeera; NYT)
Gulf governments responded by placing civilians on alert, with authorities in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia urging residents to seek shelter as air defenses intercepted incoming attacks (CNN)
Separately, after a strike damaged a building linked to one of Iran’s largest public banks in Tehran, Iranian officials warned they could target American and Israeli economic and banking interests across the region (Reuters)
The UN Security Council condemned Iran’s “egregious attacks” against its neighbors and demanded they stop; it marked the body’s first resolution related to the war and passed by a vote of thirteen to zero, with Russia and China abstaining (UN)
While Trump told Axios the war would end “soon,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on social media it would only end by “recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm [international] guarantees against future aggression” (Axios;Iranian President)
An Iranian military spokesperson also cautioned that continued destabilization of regional security could push global oil prices to $200 per barrel (Reuters)
Amid these threats and rising oil prices, the International Energy Agency announced that member states will release four hundred million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated release in the agency’s history (WSJ)
Hegseth Warns of “Most Intense Day” for U.S. Strikes
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned that Tuesday would be the most intense day yet for U.S. strikes on Iran, pledging to deploy the greatest number of fighters and bombers of the campaign (NYT)
Meanwhile, the United States deployed a Patriot air defense system to Turkey’s Malatya province, home to a key NATO radar base, as the alliance bolstered its defenses against Iranian missile threats (Reuters)
Retaliatory attacks in the region as Iran fired nine ballistic missiles and thirty-five drones at the United Arab Emirates with eight missiles intercepted and one falling into the Persian Gulf; nine drones evaded air defenses and struck inside the country (Times of Israel)
Due to the drone strikes, oil company ADNOC closed its Ruwais refinery in the UAE after a fire broke out (Reuters)
In Israel, the Israel Defense Forces detected a ballistic missile launch from Iran targeting northern and central regions, while an earlier missile attack on central Israel produced no reported injuries or direct impacts (Times of Israel)
Meanwhile, as oil and gas prices continue to rise, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naeini vowed to block all regional oil exports to hostile nations and their partners, dismissing Western efforts to control energy prices as temporary and futile (NYT)
Moreover, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to strike Iran “twenty times harder” over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, telling the American government to “beware, lest you are the ones who are eliminated,” dismissing the warnings as hollow threats that the Iranian people do not fear (NBC)
Global Oil Prices Rise Due to Iran Conflict
Amid an international increase in oil prices caused by the effects of Iranian military operations on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the G7 countries have declined to jointly tap their oil reserves to ease costs (Washington Post). The announcement came after the price-per-barrel fell slightly over the weekend in light of reporting that the body was considering such a move (Financial Times)
Due to high global energy prices, Bangladesh is closing universities early for the summer; Pakistan and the Philippines both declared a four-day work week (Reuters;Indian Express)
The head of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company said that although it will reroute some exports through the Red Sea, continued war would yield “drastic” effects on the world economy (Financial Times)
International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said that every ten percent increase in energy prices over the course of 2026 is expected to increase global inflation by almost half a percent (IMF)
U.S. President Donald Trump said the war could be over “soon”and that the United States had already achieved many of its military objectives in Iran (White House)
However, Trump threatened to escalate if Iranian officials maintain restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has pledged to do (Reuters)
A top Iranian foreign policy official said the country can keep fighting and sees no room for diplomacy (CNN)
Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei on his selection as Iran’s new supreme leader (Kremlin)
Australia granted humanitarian visas to five Iranian female soccer players; Iranian state television announcer called the women and their teammates “wartime traitors” after they declined to sing the country’s national anthem before a match at the Asian Cup (X;The Athletic)
U.S. Central Command announced it has hit more than five thousand Iranian targets and damaged or destroyed more than fifty Iranian ships in ten days of war (X)
Turkey said NATO air defenses shot down an incoming Iranian missile in its airspace yesterday for the second time this month (NYT). To help protect Cyprus, which was hit by an Iranian drone last week, the French Navy will send eight frigates and two amphibious assault ships to the Middle East in addition to its current aircraft carrier in the region; the Netherlands will send a naval frigate to the Mediterranean at France’s request; and Turkey deployed six F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems to northern Cyprus (USNI;Reuters;Yahoo)
Mojtaba Khamenei Named Iran’s Supreme Leader
Iran’s Assembly of Experts announced Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, as the country’s new supreme leader; Khamenei succeeds his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike coordinated with U.S. forces on February 28 (NBC)
Earlier in March, U.S. President Donald Trump has called Mojtaba Khamenei an “unacceptable” choice for the new leader of Iran (Axios)
While not ruling out future U.S. ground troops in Iran, Trump told reporters that the United States discouraged Kurdish armed groups from entering the war against Iran despite their offer to do so (Anadolu)
Newly released footage indicates casualties at an Iranian elementary school on February 28 were caused by a U.S. airstrike targeting an adjacent naval base (NYT)
Oil companies in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have begun reducing oil production (WSJ)
International shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely halted due to Iranian military actions (WSJ)
Trump argued on social media that short-term oil prices “will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over” (Truth Social)
Trump and UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer discussed the Iran war on a phone call; Starmer offered to send British aircraft carriers to the Middle East, an offer Trump declined and criticized for coming too late in the conflict (BBC)
Some U.S. aircraft have been permitted to land at UK bases in the region on the understanding they will only be used for defensive operations (The Guardian)
Iran Accues U.S., Israel of Attacks on Infrastructure
Water desalination plants were attacked in Iran and Bahrain, officials from both countries said; Iran accused the United States of targeting its infrastructure, a claim that U.S. Central Command denies (NYT)
On Saturday, Israel attacked multiple oil facilities in Iran, sparking a fire that blanketed Tehran in black smoke and prompted the Iranian Red Crescent Society to warn of acid rain exposure (Financial Times).
War With Iran Expands Throughout the Middle East
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced a new wave of strikes against Iranian regime targets in Tehran and Isfahan (Times of Israel)
The IDF also carried out further strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon (NPR)
The Israeli Air Force destroyed the bunker of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, dropping approximately one hundred bombs on the bunker site (Times of Israel)
Iranian state media reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards sent a wave of missiles and drone toward Tel Aviv, Israel (NYT)
In the Gulf, both Kuwait and Bahrain reported damage from Iranian drone and missile strikes (Euronews)
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones (CNN)
Qatar’s energy minister warned that Gulf states would likely shut down production, increasing global energy prices, in light of an Iranian strike that damaged Qatar’s largest natural gas plant and the ongoing Iranian targeting of oil tankers traveling through the Hormuz Strait (Financial Times)
Across the Middle East, at least 230,000 people have been displaced in relation to the ongoing war, according to the UN (Reuters)
Iran’s daily missile launches have dropped overall since earlier in March, with U.S. and Israeli forces saying they have degraded many of Iran’s missile sites; Iran’s military is increasingly carrying out regional attacks using drones (WSJ)
Russia is providing intelligence and information that is allowing Iran to target U.S. forces across the Middle East (Washington Post)
Iran’s foreign minister confirmed Russia is helping Iran’s war effort but did not confirm details (NBC)
U.S. defense contractors are due to meet with administration officials at the White House today to discuss ramping up weapons production (Reuters)
At NATO, there has been no talk of triggering the alliance’s Article V mutual defense clause following a recent Iranian attempt to target Turkey with a ballistic missile; NATO intercepted the missile and the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps denies firing missiles at Turkish territory (Reuters)
However, NATO increased its alliance-wide ballistic missile defense posture (X)
Regional Tensions Escalate as U.S., Israel Continue Strikes on Iran
The Israel Defense Forces continued to strike Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure, while the United States and Israel moved to target Iranian defense industrial assets (ISW)
Azerbaijan reported an Iranian drone strike in Nakhchivan exclave, a claim Iran denies (Axios)
The U.S. embassy in Kuwait shut down operations amid missile attacks, while the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Iraq, and Qatar, also reported Iranian missile and drone attacks (AP)
Sources report that China is in talks with Iran over oil and gas transit through the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
U.S. President Donald Trump said he should be personally involved in choosing Iran’s next supreme leader after Ali Khamenei’s death, rejecting likely successor Mojtaba Khamenei as “unacceptable;” Iran continues to delay announcing a new supreme leader (Axios)
Trump also called on the Kurdish opposition to support the U.S. war effort and offered air support for their efforts to take territory in western Iran (Washington Post)
Asked if Americans should worry about Iranian strikes against the U.S. homeland, Trump told reporters ““I guess. . . . When you go to war, some people will die” (TIME)
According to European and Middle Eastern officials briefed on the matter, the current Iranian regime’s grip on power is secure (Washington Post)
Europol warned Europeans of an increased risk for terrorist activity, cyber attacks, and online radicalization efforts as the war continues (Reuters)
Iran’s foreign minister told NBC his country is prepared to resist a potential U.S. ground invasion and that Iran is not currently willing to negotiate for a ceasefire (NBC)
The United States and its partners in the Middle East have sought Ukraine’s expertise and advice on countering Iranian drone operations, which Ukraine is now providing (Washington Post)
France has authorized U.S. use of air bases in the country for operations in the Middle East (Reuters)
Spain has denied U.S. requests for similar access and cooperation (The Hill)
U.S. military officials believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for Saturday’s strike on a girl’s school in Iran (Reuters)
NATO Intercepts Iranian Missile Near Turkey
Retaliatory strikes by Iran continued as a ballistic missile from Iran was heading towards Turkish airspace; NATO air and missile defenses shot the missile down (NYT)
Though it remains unclear where the missile was intended to land, a NATO spokesperson stated that the trans-Atlantic alliance condemned Iran’s targeting of Turkey (Reuters)
Iranian missile attacks also targeted three bases in Iraq that were used by Kurdish militant groups that oppose Iran; the Kurdish Freedom Party confirmed the strikes (NYT)
In Washington, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told reporters this morning the United States was “accelerating, not decelerating” military action and said that, alongside Israel, it aimed to gain “uncontested control” of Iranian air (NYT)
General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Iranian ballistic missile strikes have decreased by 86 percent compared to the first day of fighting and that drone attacks have similarly decreased by 73 percent (NYT)
Separately, Hegseth announced that the U.S. military sank an Iranian warship with a torpedo off the coast of Sri Lanka (BBC)
Sri Lankan authorities said they rescued thirty-two people on board and recovered multiple bodies; sources from Sri Lanka’s defense ministry and Navy say roughly a hundred others are missing (Reuters)
A set of satellite images reviewed by the BBC also shows that U.S. and Israeli strikes destroyed or damaged at least eleven Iranian naval vessels; several missile bases and nuclear sites were also damaged in the attacks (BBC)
Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a new wave of strikes targeting Iranian regime members; Kurdish media also reported the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters being targeted in northwest Iran (Guardian). The IDF also announced a new wave of strikes in southern Lebanon, telling residents to evacuate to the north of the Litani River (Reuters)
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile, as at least two hundred vessels, including oil tankers and cargo ships, remain anchored (Reuters)
Iran’s Retaliation to U.S.- and Israeli-launched War Continues to Widen
Trump notified Congress in a letter this week that the operations were meant to protect the U.S. homeland and forces in the region, advance U.S. national interests, and ensure “collective self-defense of our regional allies, including Israel” (NYT)
Despite U.S. officials’ arguments that an Iranian threat was imminent, the UN nuclear chief said that Iran was not days or weeks away from having a nuclear weapon (CNN)
U.S. Central Command stated that the United States has struck over 1,700 targets across Iran, including naval ships, submarines, anti-ship missile sites, and command and control centers (Jerusalem Post)
Iranian news agencies also reported that Mehrabad airport was struck soon after the Israel Defense Forces warned civilians near Tehran to evacuate (Reuters)
Air attacks further destroyed the building of Iran’s Assembly of Experts in Qom, which is tasked with electing Iran’s new supreme leader (Reuters)
The Israel Defense Forces reported that strikes also killed Daoud Ali Zadeh, the acting commander of the Lebanon Corps of the elite Quds Force, in Tehran (AP)
Iran launched retaliatory attacks on the U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (AP;Kuwait MoFA)
The State Department urged Americans to leave the Middle East due to “serious safety risks” (State)
Despite the U.S. government’s warning urging Americans to leave the region, many airports have been forced to delay or cancel flights because of the conflict (Guardian)
Iran also struck energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar and fired upon ships in the Strait of Hormuz (AP)
Energy markets remain volatile, with European natural gas prices surging at least 40 percent today after Qatar paused exports from a gas facility following the Iranian attack (Bloomberg)
U.S. President Donald Trump announced the United States Development Finance Corporation will offer insurance “at a very reasonable price” to ensure maritime trade flows in the Gulf (Truth Social)
France and the United Kingdom (UK) announced they would each deploy a warship to the Mediterranean (France 24;BBC)
Plans for new leadership in Iran also remain unclear as Trump told White House reporters that the leaders the administration had in mind are dead, and that an additional group “may be dead also” (AP)
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz
According to Iranian media, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed and Iran will fire upon any ship that attempts to pass through (Reuters)
Meanwhile, Kuwaiti air defenses mistakenly shot down three American jets during combat operations; U.S. Central Command said in a statement that all six crew members are safe (NYT)
U.S. Central Command also raised the U.S. death toll from Operation Epic Fury to four; the fourth servicemember was severely wounded in a Saturday attack on a U.S. base in Kuwait and later succumbed to injuries (CENTCOM)
Despite Trump calling on Iranians this weekend to rise up against the regime, top administration officials argued that U.S. aims were focused on degrading Iran’s military capabilities—including its ballistic missiles, navy, and security infrastructure (White House;Pentagon)
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Khamenei as “not a so-called regime change war,” but quickly added “the regime sure did change” (NPR)
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have both encouraged Iranians to rise up against the remnants of the regime (AP)
The White House said in a statement that Trump’s “unequivocal” demand remains that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon (White House)
Trump wrote in a social media post last night that U.S. munitions stockpiles remain high and “Wars can be fought ‘forever’” (Truth Social)
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said the attacks had taken “months, and in some cases, years” of planning with the goal of stopping Tehran’s “ability to project power outside of its borders” (France24)
Although Trump told reporters yesterday that Iran had indicated interest in resuming talks, Iran’s top national security official, Ali Larijani, wrote on social media today that Iran would not negotiate with the United States (X)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio caused a stir when he told reporters that the U.S. attack on Iran was in part driven by Israel’s plans to strike Iran; because Iran would have retaliated by attacking U.S. forces, a preemptive U.S. attack was necessary, Rubio said (State)
While many congressional Republicans praised the U.S. military campaign, leading Democrats condemned it as illegal and reckless and vowed to vote on a resolution restricting Trump’s war powers (NPR)
The death toll continues to rise: the Iranian Red Crescent reported at least 555 people have been killed in Iran, while 11 people have been killed in Israel (AP)
Three U.S. Service Members Killed in Operation Epic Fury
U.S. Central Command announced in a statement that three U.S. service members were killed and five others were seriously wounded in yesterday’s attack on Iran; President Trump said there would “likely be more” U.S. casualties (CENTCOM; White House)
Operations continued as CENTCOM stated that a large-scale U.S. strike destroyed the IRGC headquarters (CENTCOM)
Satellite imagery also shows damage to Iran’s naval and air bases, while President Trump stated that the operations sank nine Iranian naval ships (NPR;Truth Social)
Trump has given varying estimates of how long U.S. military engagement could last, telling different media outlets over the weekend it could be days or up to 4 to 5 weeks (NYT)
Speaking to The Atlantic, Trump appeared to float an off-ramp, suggesting that he would be willing to speak with Iran’s new leadership (The Atlantic)
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on social media that Trump had launched the war despite a new nuclear deal being “within reach” (X)
Meanwhile, Israel announced it launched another round of strikes “in the heart of Iran” (CNN)
Retaliatory strikes from Iran also continued, as an Iranian missile strike in Beit Shamesh killed nine Israeli citizens (NYT)
Three people were also killed in the United Arab Emirates, while Kuwait’s Health Ministry reported one death from the retaliatory strikes (Jerusalem Post)
Six nearby countries condemned Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the region (Saudi Press Agency)
Videos and images verified by the New York Times indicate yesterday’s bombing of an elementary school in southern Iran killed at least 175 people (NYT)
Oil shipping traffic slowed to a near stop in the Strait of Hormuz, while a key international oil price jumped at least 8 percent (Bloomberg)
United States and Israel Attack Iran
The United States and Israel announced that they had initiated a large-scale military operation designed to destroy Iran’s military capabilities and bring about regime change (Axios)
The commander of the U.S. Central Command said the operation began at 1:15 a.m. ET and targeted aspects of Iran’s security apparatus that posed an imminent threat (CENTCOM)
The operation, named “Operation Epic Fury” by the United States, utilized Tomahawk missiles, F-18 and F-35 fighter jets, and, for the first time, single-use drones (Reuters)
The combined U.S.-Israel force conducted close to nine hundred strikes, as the Israel Defense Forces claimed it had struck at least five hundred Iranian targets (ISW)
Iranian state media confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the attacks; Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammed Pakpour were also reportedly killed alongside five other senior military commanders (Reuters)
Iranian state media also reported that Khamenei’s daughter, grandchild, daughter-in-law, and son-in-law were killed in the attacks (Times of Israel)
The U.S.-Israel operations triggered a retaliatory campaign by Iran as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates faced Iranian missiles, drones, and intercepts (Axios)
At least one U.S. military installation in Bahrain, which headquarters the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, was struck by Iranian missile fire; Iranian state media reported that missile attacks also targeted Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and al-Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates among other non-military sites, including luxury hotels and residential buildings in Bahrain and Dubai (WaPo)
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for immediate de-escalation at an emergency Security Council meeting Saturday, condemning the United States and Israel’s strikes as unlawful (AP)
Both countries argued their actions were justified given the major nature of the threat posed by Iran, while Iran said it posed no imminent threat (UN)
U.S. Guidance on Leaving Israel
As the United States weighs a strike on Iran, it authorized non-essential government staff and family members to depart Israel, citing unspecified “safety risks” (U.S. Embassy Jerusalem)
China also urged its citizens in Iran to evacuate as soon as possible (Reuters)
The threat of renewed conflict comes as Israel’s stockpiles of ground-based ballistic missile interceptors and U.S. land- and sea-based antiballistic missile systems, both used extensively during the June 2025 Iran–Israel conflict, were significantly depleted, raising concerns about the sustainability of Israel’s air defense coverage in the event of another exchange (NYT)
Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that some of Iran’s uranium enriched to up to 60 percent purity, near weapons grade, is stored in an underground tunnel complex at its Isfahan nuclear site, which appears largely undamaged despite U.S. and Israeli strikes that hit the facility’s entrance in June (Reuters)
Third Round of U.S.-Iran Talks
The United States and Iran held another round of indirect nuclear talks today in Geneva, with both sides threatening war if diplomacy fails (BBC)
The countries are floating proposals that include limiting the amount of uranium Iran is allowed to enrich, temporarily suspending Iran’s enrichment activity, and dismantling its main nuclear sites, according to reports from multiple news outlets (Guardian)
Both sides agreed to resume negotiations within a week, with additional technical-level discussions scheduled in Vienna (Reuters)
The state news agency of mediator Oman said today that both sides were demonstrating “unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas and solutions” (Oman News Agency)
Further, the foreign minister of Oman said the talks had achieved “significant progress,” but did not announce a breakthrough that would avert an attack (Oman FM)
Iran Optimistic on U.S. Talks as Protests Expand
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he sees a chance for a positive outcome from a third round of talks with the United States in Geneva (Reuters)
Meanwhile, BBC verified footage shows additional universities joining anti-government protests across Iran (BBC)
Tokyo “strongly demanded” the release of a Japanese national detained in Iran since January, following a report by RFE/RL that Iranian authorities had arrested the Tehran bureau chief of the Japanese public broadcaster NHK World; the RFE/RL report cited unnamed sources (Japan Times)
Trump Calls for Nuclear Deal in State of the Union Address
Trump said he sought a nuclear deal with Iran to thwart the country’s “sinister ambitions” to obtain nuclear weapons, but said he had yet to hear Iran commit to abandoning those ambitions; he also warned that Iran was trying to develop missiles that could reach the United States (NYT)
Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that a deal with the United States was only feasible if diplomacy was prioritized (Reuters)
This comes as Iran nears a deal with China to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles; though no delivery date has been agreed upon, the use of the CM-302 missile would improve Iran’s strike capabilities and pose a threat to U.S. naval forces (Reuters)
Iranian Students Continue Protests as U.S.-Iran Tensions Heighten
Iranian students continued protests for a third day, as state media reported students burning flags at an all-women university, chanting anti-government slogans, and skirmishes at Amir Kabir University in Tehran (Reuters)
This comes amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, as Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that any U.S. attack, including preliminary strikes, would be considered an act of aggression and would prompt a response (Al Jazeera)
Meanwhile, the United States began evacuating non-essential staff and eligible family members from the U.S. Embassy in Beirut amid increased concern about a military conflict with Iran (Reuters)
However, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff chair Dan Caine has warned Trump and other officials that a military campaign against Iran could incur significant costs to U.S. forces and weapons, multiple news outlets reported, citing unnamed officials (NYT)
Caine’s office said in a statement that he confidentially gives the president a range of options and associated risks (WSJ)
While the White House praised Caine in a statement, Trump wrote on social media that it is “100% incorrect” that Caine is “against us going to War with Iran” (Truth Social)
Plans for More Iran Talks
Negotiations between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program will likely continue in Geneva on Thursday, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS News (CBS)
Unnamed U.S. officials also confirmed plans for the meeting to multiple news outlets, but stressed that Trump is still considering military strikes amid the large-scale U.S. deployment in the region (Axios;NYT)
In Iran, meanwhile, antigovernment protests have reignited as the new school semester begins in spite of the regime’s recent brutal crackdowns (NYT)
Trump Signals Deadline for Nuclear Deal
Trump told reporters that Iran has ten or “pretty much maximum” fifteen days to reach a deal with the United States or “bad things” will happen (Bloomberg)
Araghchi Says Some Progress Made in Geneva
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that some progress was made in Geneva by reaching an understanding on “guiding principles,” but that this progress does not indicate an imminent nuclear deal (Reuters)
U.S. officials have further stated that Iran needs to draft a detailed proposal for a deal in two weeks (Axios)
As negotiations continue, the U.S. military is amassing its greatest airpower buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Wall Street Journal reported (WSJ)
Meanwhile, satellite images show that Iran has been making repairs to and fortifying military and nuclear sites bombed by the United States and Israel (Reuters)
U.S. and Iran Pursuing Talks in Geneva
U.S.-Iran negotiations ended with a commitment to meet again, but Iran failed to acknowledge certain U.S. red lines, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News (Fox News)
While Tehran has sought a narrow deal on its nuclear program as well as sanctions relief, Washington has signaled it seeks a more expansive agreement that could also address Tehran’s missile stockpile (NYT)
Portions of the Strait of Hormuz were closed for “security precautions” as the Revolutionary Guards conducted military drills in the strait (Reuters)
The closure included live-fire drills, a rare show of force (AP)
Separately, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened to sink U.S. warships in the region (The Hill)
Open-source flight radar data shows that dozens of U.S. fighter jets have moved to positions near Iran this week (Axios)