Trump Warns of U.S. Consequences If Iranian Authorities Kill demonstrators
Iranian security forces’ efforts to repress the demonstrations have not stopped their growth; they have now entered their twelfth day (BBC;HRANA)
U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said that more than forty-two people have died and more than two thousand have been detained since demonstrations began on December 28 (HRANA)
Protesters are denouncing both economic hardship—the country’s currency collapsed late last month—and political repression, with many openly calling for regime change (Bloomberg)
Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has sought to engage with protesters and introduce economic stipends and other concessions, but Iranians have stayed on the streets (FT)
Trump told the “Hugh Hewitt Show” that Washington was watching the demonstrations “very closely;” he said Iranian authorities have “been told very strongly” that they will “pay hell” if they kill demonstrators, though he characterized the deaths so far as consequences of crowd control problems (Hugh Hewitt)
In a separate interview that aired on Fox News, Trump alleged that Khamenei could be looking to leave Iran (Fox News)
Iraq-based Kurdish opposition parties are calling for a general strike in support of the protest movement that has spread to the Kurdish regions of western Iran (France24)
Iran Responds to Protests
The government announced a plan to give most citizens monthly payments of about $7 in response to widespread demonstrations fueled by economic hardship (NYT)
The protests have become the largest in the country since 2022, when the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody sparked months of civic upheaval (AP)
Iran’s Protests Spread
Antigovernment protests and labor strikes have spread to twenty-six provinces in Iran, U.S.-based group Human Rights Activists News Agency said; at least nineteen protesters have reportedly been killed as a result of the law enforcement crackdown (HRANA)
After Iran’s top leader said Saturday that “rioters must be put in their place,” Trump told reporters that if Iran starts “killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States” (AP;White House)
Iranian Military Drill
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy conducted large-scale drills in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, firing cruise and ballistic missiles as well as drones at simulated targets (AP)
Iran warned the United States to avoid approaching its forces during the exercises (Newsweek)
Iran also hosted a separate Shanghai Cooperation Organization counterterrorism exercise, with Azerbaijan, Iraq, Oman, and Saudi Arabia participating (Reuters)
Iran’s Domestic Crises
Officials and experts are warning about Iran’s deepening drought, which has left major reservoirs near empty and raised the possibility of water rationing and temporary evacuations from major cities; researchers say decades of water overuse, aging infrastructure, and climate-driven heat have contributed to the crisis (Forbes)
Meanwhile, Iran’s economy continues to struggle, with its currency hitting an all-time low of 1.2 million to the U.S. dollar amid UN-snapback sanctions and U.S. pressure that constrain economic activity (AP)
Iran Nuclear Negotiations
France announced that Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot will meet with Iran’s Abbas Aragchi in Paris on November 26 to address Iran’s nuclear obligations and other security challenges, amid Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency collapsing (Reuters)
Iran-IAEA Tensions
Iran said it would stop allowing the International Nuclear Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect some of its nuclear sites yesterday, following the passage of an IAEA resolution demanding Iran provide exact information about nuclear sites “without delay” (WaPo)
Iran had warned that the resolution would negatively affect cooperation; it had granted the agency only partial inspection authority following U.S. and Israeli attacks on its facilities in June (Reuters)
Despite these tensions, France reiterated that European powers seek to negotiate with Tehran and invited Iranian officials to talks before the end of the year (Reuters)
Iran’s Nuclear Stance
Iran’s foreign minister told a press conference that Tehran is not conducting undeclared uranium enrichment; he said Washington’s approach to nuclear talks does not suggest it is not ready for “equal, fair negotiations,” but left open the possibility of such talks in the future (AP)
Iran Seizes Oil Tanker in Strait of Hormuz
Iranian forces intercepted a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker, the Talara, and directed it into Iranian waters, according to a U.S. defense official who said American surveillance drones monitored the incident, which was the first in several months (AP)
The tanker’s manager later affirmed that the entire crew was safe, while the ship remained anchored in Iran’s Bandar Abbas Port (Reuters)
Iran Flaunts Military Capabilities
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps publicly displayed domestically-manufactured missiles for the first time since its June war with Israel and the United States, as reports suggest that Iran has significantly accelerated its weapons production levels in preparation for a new war with Israel (AP)
Meanwhile, in Canada, Canadian Security Intelligence Service Director Dan Rogers gave a rare speech stating that his agency thwarted several potentially lethal Iranian plots against opponents of the Tehran regime this year (Reuters)
New Iran Sanctions
The U.S. Treasury Department issued sanctions against thirty-two individuals and entities across various countries, including China and the United Arab Emirates, that it accused of supporting Iranian weapons production (Reuters)
This is the second tranche of new sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran since UN sanctions on the country snapped back earlier this year following the full expiration of the 2015 nuclear deal (Bloomberg)
Iran Reports IAEA Inspections
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors toured several nuclear facilities last week in response to the watchdog’s demand that Tehran “seriously improve” cooperation and grant access to sites in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz (Reuters)
Iran Releases Seized Oil Tanker
All twenty-one members of the crew are safe (NYT).
Iranian Plot to Kill Israeli Envoy
A U.S. official stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps planned an assassination attempt against Israeli Ambassador Einat Kranz Neiger in Mexico, but the plan was disrupted earlier this year and poses no ongoing threat; Israel thanked Mexican authorities for thwarting the network, as Western governments accuse Tehran of escalating global plots against diplomats and dissidents (Reuters)
Iranian Private Outreach to the United States
President Donald Trump stated that Iranian officials have been reaching out to the United States to ask whether U.S. sanctions could be lifted, even as Iran publicly refutes negotiation attempts; Trump reiterated that he is open to talks (Reuters)
French and Iranian Prisoner Releases
Iran freed two French nationals previously jailed there, French President Emmanuel Macron said; the move follows France’s conditional release last month of an Iranian student who was jailed earlier this year (Reuters)
French President Emmanuel Macron and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi separately voiced hope that the detainees could return home (DW)
The Iranian detainee, Mahdieh Esfandiari, was arrested on accusations of promoting terrorism on social media, while the two French citizens, Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, were arrested in 2022 on espionage charges (France24)
Khamanei Refuses Negotiations With United States
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei claimed that Iran would not negotiate with the United States over its nuclear weapons program as long as U.S. support for Israel continued (Reuters)
Maximum Pressure Campaign Accelerates
U.S. Treasury Undersecretary John Hurley will visit multiple Middle Eastern states to discuss efforts to restrict Iranian sanctions evasion as Washington renews its “maximum pressure” campaign after UN snapback sanctions were reinstated in September; discussions will also cover attempts to challenge Iran-aligned groups (Reuters)
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War cited rumors that senior Iranian military leadership, including Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour and Deputy Chief of Staff for Political and Security Affairs Ali Asghar Hejazi, have been making policy decisions independently of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marking a major shift in Iran’s governance structure if true (ISW)
Activity Near Iran’s Uranium Stockpiles
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi told the Associated Press that inspectors have not observed renewed enrichment beyond levels preceding the June conflict with Israel and the United States but detected recent movement around sites holding uranium enriched to 60 percent; Grossi warned that the agency lacks full access to confirm the uranium has not been diverted, even as inspectors remain in the country (AP)
Meanwhile, European security agencies reported that China has delivered sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient in the production of Iran’s ballistic missiles, to the Bandar Abbas port despite the recent reimposition of UN snapback sanctions; analysts suggest that technical ambiguities in procurement networks may enable Beijing to claim compliance with international regulations (CNN)
Iran Pushes Solar Energy
Tehran is accelerating renewable energy development to curb worsening power shortages caused by years of global sanctions and underinvestment in infrastructure; renewables currently account for just 2.5 percent of electricity generation, with a target of twelve gigawatts within three years (FT)
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi claimed that Iran would refuse to return to nuclear talks with world powers until the United States drops what he called “unreasonable demands” (Reuters)
Khamenei Refutes Washington
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for renewed negotiations and refuted his claim that U.S. strikes destroyed Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, saying Washington’s actions amounted to “bullying” following June’s twelve-day air war targeting Iranian sites (Newsweek)
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formally ended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, weeks after Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hinted at such a move (Reuters)
Most of Iran’s enriched uranium remains intact despite Israeli and U.S. attacks in June, IAEA Director Rafael Grossi said today (Times of Israel)
Iran Continues Withholding IAEA Access
Wall Street Journal Correspondent Laurence Norman reported that Iran has yet to provide reports on or set inspection dates for damaged nuclear facilities under its Cairo deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (X)
Trump Says U.S. Is Committed to Nuclear Talks
Speaking to Israel’s Knesset, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington is prepared to reach a new deal with Iran “when Tehran is ready;” on Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said Tehran would consider any “fair and balanced” U.S. proposal but noted no formal offer had yet been received (Reuters)
Revelations on China-Iran Cooperation
The Wall Street Journal reported that China is secretly paying for Iranian oil by swapping crude for infrastructure projects, bypassing U.S. banking sanctions; state insurer Sinosure and the shadowy firm Chuxin channel billions in oil revenue to Chinese builders in Iran, deepening a twenty-five-year strategic pact (WSJ)
Iranian Foreign Minister Deems Nuclear Oversight Irrelevant
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency is “no longer relevant” after Britain, France, and Germany triggered snapback sanctions, warning the move would undercut Europe’s leverage in nuclear talks; Araghchi said Iran will soon announce its stance on future cooperation, as diplomacy remains feasible (Al Jazeera)