Elisabeth Harding

CFR Staff

Elisabeth Harding

Analyst, Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Elisabeth Harding is the analyst for the Greenberg Center of Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Before joining CFR, she was a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. She holds bachelor's degrees in economics and international studies from Pepperdine University and a master's degree in international politics from Trinity College Dublin.

Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Could Trump’s Tariffs Replace Income Tax for the Bottom 90%?

President Trump wants to eliminate income tax for Americans earning less than $150k. Could his tariffs offset that?

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding April 24, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs

Studies have shown that tariffs depress productivity in protected industries. U.S. steel is a case in point.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding March 6, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Dollar Undervalued on CFR Mini Mac Index

The dollar is slightly undervalued on CFR’s Mini Mac Index. Will Trump’s tariff policies send it soaring?

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding February 12, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

The Growth Hit From Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs will hit U.S. growth. We estimate the impact over time.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding February 6, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Where Will Trump’s Tariff Revenues Go? His First Term Provides a Big Clue.

Nearly all of Trump’s first-term China tariff revenue went to compensate American farmers facing retaliatory tariffs. Expect a replay in 2025.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding February 3, 2025 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance

If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding January 31, 2025 Geo-Graphics
World Trade Organization (WTO)

Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System

Since 2019, there has been a massive surge in “National Security” notifications at the WTO. Many of these are covers for rank protectionism.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding December 19, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

How Trump Can Control the Fed

Could President-elect Donald Trump end Fed independence on monetary policy? A legislative anomaly gives him a way.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding November 18, 2024 Geo-Graphics
China

China’s Central Bank is Becoming the Developing World’s “Payday Lender”

With the developing world’s growing use of costly and opaque “payday loans” from China’s central bank, the IMF and World Bank need to demand far greater transparency from Beijing.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding October 22, 2024 Geo-Graphics
United States

Will a Worker Shortage Kill the U.S. Manufacturing Boom?

The United States is witnessing a boom in manufacturing investment, stimulated by massive government subsidies, but the skilled workforce necessary to support it is severely lacking.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding September 30, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Aging Will Hit China’s Economy Far Harder Than Is Recognized

Aging is not only shrinking the labor force but damaging productivity—and therefore per capita GDP growth.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding August 28, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Big Macs Show Dollar Hugely Overvalued, But “Mini Macs” Beg to Differ.

Whereas the Economist magazine’s Big Mac currency index says the dollar is hugely overvalued, CFR’s “Mini Mac” index finds it slightly undervalued.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding August 12, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Immigration Has Boosted Labor Force Participation, Helping Growth and Hastening Rate Cuts

One factor boosting the case for an early Fed rate cut is the rise in the labor force participation rate—a rise driven by immigration.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding July 22, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

The Farm Legacy of Henry Wallace: Regressive Subsidies

The era of massive government farm subsidies began in the early 1930s. It has favored the large and the rich ever since.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding June 10, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

For the First Time, the U.S. Is Spending More on Debt Interest than Defense

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding May 23, 2024 Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies
Economics

Global Inflation Tracker

The CFR Global Inflation Tracker allows you to gauge trends in prices across the world over time.

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding March 25, 2025 Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies
Economics

China Has Become a Major Source of Sovereign Default Risk

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding March 20, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

With a Soft Landing Looking Likely, the Dollar Falls on the CFR Mini Mac Index

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding February 6, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Fed Policy is Tighter Than it Looks, and is Set to Tighten Further

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding January 30, 2024 Geo-Graphics
Economics

QT and Monetary Policy

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding December 6, 2023 Geo-Graphics
Economics

Dollar Plummets on CFR Mini Mac Index as Market Calls a Peak on U.S. Rates

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding August 15, 2023 Geo-Graphics
Economics

As China Battles Falling Home Prices, the U.S. Faces a Worsening Housing Shortage

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding October 13, 2023 Geo-Graphics
China

The Root of China’s Growing Youth Unemployment Crisis

by Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding September 18, 2023 Geo-Graphics
Global

Central Bank Currency Swaps Tracker

Introduction Since the financial crisis of 2007, central banks around the world have entered into a multitude of bilateral currency swap agreements with one another. These agreements allow a centr…

by Benn Steil, Elisabeth Harding and Samuel Zucker October 2, 2024
RealEcon

How Washington Killed the World Trade Organization

with Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding via Barron's December 12, 2024
Economics

The Fed Is Tightening More Than It Says

with Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding via Barron's November 29, 2023

United States

What Is Temporary Protected Status?

Temporary Protected Status has long been used as a humanitarian solution for migrants who are unable to return home safely. President Trump’s renewed efforts to scale back such programs have further fueled the debate over the immigration policy’s use and scope.

by Diana Roy and Claire Klobucista July 2, 2025

Sudan

What Is the Extent of Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis?

More than two years into the civil war in Sudan, at least twelve million people have been forcibly displaced, but experts say the country’s devastating humanitarian crisis is still not getting the international attention it deserves.

by Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy June 26, 2025

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

What Is NATO?

The alliance continues to bolster its military deterrent in Europe amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and has expanded its membership in recent years.

by Jonathan Masters June 24, 2025

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