Russia, Ukraine Ceasefire Accusations

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Top of the Agenda

Russia and Ukraine each accused the other of continuing to attack as a Russia-announced three day ceasefire began today. Ukraine’s foreign minister called the pause in fighting a “farce;” Ukrainian officials had repeatedly called for a thirty-day truce instead. Ukraine’s defense minister wrote on social media today that Russia committed 734 ceasefire violations “from midnight to midday,” while Russia’s defense ministry said that Ukraine had conducted 488 attacks on Russian targets. 

The context.

• Russia announced plans for this truce late last month, giving more notice than it did in an abrupt pause in fighting proclaimed over Easter.
• Ukraine’s top presidential aide called Russia’s ceasefire announcement “political manipulation.” Ukraine had previously accepted—while Russia had rejected—a U.S.-backed proposal for a thirty-day ceasefire.
• It was not clear that Russia and Ukraine had agreed on rules of monitoring the pause in fighting, a sign of the distance remaining between the countries in peace talks. 
• The truce marks the eighty-year anniversary of the end of World War II, which governments around the world are observing this week. It also comes as Russia hosts world leaders for a military parade.

The broader negotiations. Partner countries to both Russia and Ukraine discussed the steps toward a peace settlement in multiple forums this week.

• U.S. Vice President JD Vance said at a conference yesterday that while the United States hopes to see Russia and Ukraine agree on guidelines for direct talks, there was still a “big gulf” between them. Russia is “asking for too much” in terms of concessions, he added. 
• France and Germany—which announced the forming of a bilateral security council yesterday—said they also discussed work toward a thirty-day truce in Ukraine. 
• China and Russia discussed the war during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow today.

“For now, Moscow is tied down in Ukraine and cannot afford to pursue more expansionist undertakings. But should the Trump administration decide that Ukraine does not merit U.S. partnership and cooperation, Putin’s ambitions will only grow—along with the cost of deterring Russia in the future. If Washington abandons Ukraine now, Europe could become the consuming crisis of Trump’s second term.”

—CFR Fellow Liana Fix and the Catholic University of America’s Michael Kimmage, Foreign Affairs

Across the Globe

India-Pakistan tensions. Tensions continue to run high following India’s strikes across Pakistan. Pakistan said it shot down twenty-five drones from India today while India said it thwarted Pakistani drone and missile attacks. Officials from countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Ireland worked to mediate; Pakistan’s foreign minister said that he welcomed U.S. efforts to de-escalate.

Israel-Syria talks. The two countries are involved in indirect talks to prevent tensions from “spiraling out of control,” Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa said yesterday in Paris. Al-Sharaa met with French President Emmanuel Macron, who said he would pursue the progressive removal of European Union (EU) sanctions if Syria moved forward with reforms.

U.S. jet falls into Red Sea. A navy fighter jet worth $67 million fell into the Red Sea on Tuesday, after a system failed that usually allows it to park aboard an aircraft carrier. No one died in the incident. It was the second Navy fighter jet lost in the sea in less than two weeks: the previous one slid off the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Harry S. Truman when it was moving to reposition itself during Houthi fire, unnamed Defense Department officials told the New York Times. 

South Africa’s growth strategy. President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled the second phase of a multiyear government program designed to boost economic growth yesterday. The government will allocate state-owned land in cities for affordable housing and launch programs to digitize certain administrative services, he said. The first phase had reformed the country’s work permit system. South Africa’s economy saw less than 1 percent average annual growth over the past decade.

Greece-Egypt meeting. Greece endorsed an Arab-backed plan for the postwar reconstruction of Gaza yesterday, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Athens. The two countries also discussed cooperation on migration and on an underwater cable in which Egypt transfers solar and wind energy to Greece. Last year, the EU announced over $8 billion in funding for Egypt as it worked to stem northward migration.

Trump touts UK trade deal. The United States and United Kingdom (UK) have reached a “comprehensive” trade pact, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on social media this morning. The White House has said it will give more information in a press conference slated for 10 a.m. Today’s announcement will cover general terms of a deal, an unnamed UK official told Bloomberg; UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is also due to speak today.

Reported U.S. spying on Greenland. Denmark summoned the U.S. ambassador in the country after the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Washington is increasing its spying on politicians in Denmark and Greenland. Senior U.S. intelligence officials instructed spying agencies to identify people in Denmark and Greenland who support U.S. goals for the Danish territory, the Journal said. A National Security Council spokesperson said the White House does not comment on intelligence matters.

Russia-Venezuela partnership. The countries signed a strategic partnership agreement yesterday during Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s trip to Moscow. They agreed on joint development of new oil and gas fields as well as to grow their oil trade; Venezuela’s oil sector is currently under U.S. sanctions. Venezuela followed China, Iran, and North Korea in signing strategic partnership deals with Russia since 2022.

Joseph Nye remembered. Prominent scholar and former U.S. foreign policy official Joseph Nye, who advised multiple presidents and created the term “soft power,” died at the age of eighty-eight. His many focuses included U.S.-Asia relations, nuclear diplomacy, and theorizing “complex interdependence.” Nye also served as dean of the Harvard Kennedy School and mentored generations of foreign policy specialists. 

What’s Next

• Today, the conclave to elect the next pope continues in the Vatican.
• Today, the UN Security Council holds a session discussing South Sudan and Sudan.
• Tomorrow, new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets with NATO’s Secretary-General in Brussels.