Canadian Liberals Victorious
By experts and staff
- Published
- CFR Editors
Welcome to the Daily News Brief, CFR’s flagship morning newsletter summarizing the top global news and analysis of the day.
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Top of the Agenda
Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth consecutive term in power yesterday after a race that was upended by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats. Early this morning, the party was leading in around 168 parliamentary seats, just shy of the 172 needed to form a majority government. Yesterday’s vote gives a national mandate to Prime Minister Mark Carney, who rose to that position in March by winning a party election. In his victory speech, Carney said Canada’s old relationship with the United States—as well as the open global trading system—are “over.”
The context. As recently as December, the Liberals were polling more than twenty points behind their Conservative rivals. But their pledges to staunchly defend the country’s sovereignty amid Trump’s tariff and annexation threats saw the party’s popularity soar.
- Some of Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre’s proposals, such as a restrictive stance on immigration and pledge to put “Canada First,” earned him comparisons to Trump. Poilievre lost his own seat yesterday, though Conservatives had a strong showing overall as voters largely eschewed smaller parties.
- Carney argued his experience leading two Group of Seven central banks would help protect Canada’s economy during Trump’s trade war.
- Trump on election day said in a social media post that Canadians should vote for a leader who would make Canada the fifty-first U.S. state.
Post-election plans.
- Carney pledged last night to govern for all Canadians, saying “we have to take care of each other” against the backdrop of U.S. threats. “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen,” he said.
- He has pledged to begin a “broad renegotiation” of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal. Last night, he pledged to forge new trade alliances outside of North America and increase internal trade within Canada.
“In no country has the political impact of Donald Trump been more dramatic than in neighboring Canada…Instead of facing a sympathetic Conservative prime minister in Poilievre, Trump now faces a Liberal who sold himself to voters as the best man to ‘stand up to Donald Trump,’ and a Canadian population that has rallied behind him.”
—CFR experts Edward Alden and Inu Manak tell CFR.org
Across the Globe
Probe of Iberian power outage. Authorities are investigating how tens of millions of people were left powerless in Portugal and Spain starting midday yesterday—with the blackouts for some in Spain extending into the night. Power was virtually all restored by this morning. Authorities from both governments said the blackout did not appear to be caused by a cyberattack.
Ukraine’s response to truce proposal. Ukraine said it supports an immediate thirty-day truce following Russia’s announcement yesterday it would pause fighting May 8–11. Trump welcomes Russia’s willingness for a short pause and “wants a permanent ceasefire and to bring this conflict to a peaceful resolution,” a U.S. National Security Council spokesperson said. A Kremlin spokesperson said today that Russia was waiting for Ukraine’s response to its May truce and invitation to begin direct negotiations on settling the war.
Surging global military spending. Defense spending grew 9.4 percent worldwide in 2024 compared to the previous year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said. The total expenditure of $2.7 trillion is a high unseen since the end of the Cold War. European countries—including Russia—were the biggest drivers of the buildup: they upped spending a collective 17 percent since 2023.
U.S.-Mexico water dispute. Mexico agreed to send more water from a shared river to the United States after Trump said Mexico was failing to comply with a 1944 water-sharing treaty and threatened tariffs in response. The plan for resolving the dispute comes at a time of extreme drought conditions in northern Mexico; farmers in the region seized a dam in 2020 to stop water delivery to the United States amid shortages.
Gaza aid case at ICJ. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) heard arguments yesterday in a case over whether Israel is required to permit aid into Gaza under international law and the UN charter after a nearly two-month blockade. The UN’s World Food Program said last week it had run out of food to distribute in Gaza, and the UN General Assembly asked the ICJ to rule on the case. Israel declined to appear before the court.
UN probes UAE links to Sudan weapons. A UN panel monitoring sanctions in Sudan is investigating how ammunition sent from Bulgaria to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was found in a convoy for Sudanese paramilitary fighters, according to documents seen by Reuters. The UAE has denied arming Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). When asked about the ammunition, the UAE referred back to a previous UN panel report that mentioned the UAE as peacekeepers. The United Nations did not comment.
Germany’s new cabinet. Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has selected energy sector executive Katherina Reiche as economy minister and ally Johann Wadephul as foreign minister. Wadephul has advocated for stronger German military support for Ukraine and closer integration with NATO. Germany’s Social Democrats, who will govern in coalition with Merz’s group, are expected to reveal their ministerial choices after a coalition deal vote concludes tomorrow.
Opposition victory in Trinidad. The centrist United National Congress party won Trinidad and Tobago’s parliamentary election yesterday, according to preliminary results. The result will bring back Kamla Persad-Bissessar as prime minister; she held the post from 2010 to 2015 before her party lost to its center-left rival in the last two elections. Outgoing Prime Minister Stuart Young had called a snap election soon after taking office last month, over concerns that his appointment was unconstitutional.
What’s Next
Today, Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru begins a visit to the Philippines.
Tomorrow, European Union ambassadors will meet in Brussels to discuss relations with the United Kingdom.
Tomorrow, the Cayman Islands hold a parliamentary election.