Russia-Ukraine War Enters Fifth Year

Welcome to the Daily News Brief, CFR’s flagship morning newsletter summarizing the top global news and analysis of the day. 

Top of the Agenda

Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its fifth year today, as top EU officials visit Kyiv to show support. The anniversary of Russia’s invasion comes amid slow-moving territorial shifts, stalled U.S.-backed peace talks, and a steady Russian aerial campaign on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. No senior U.S. official is joining the delegation in Kyiv. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are convening a meeting today of a so-called Coalition of the Willing to support Ukraine, a reflection of Europe’s increased support over the past year. Yet the bloc is not fully unified—just yesterday, Hungary blocked a fresh slate of EU sanctions on Russia and a $106 billion loan for Ukraine.

What both sides are saying. In a social media post today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised his country’s success in maintaining its independence and statehood in the face of war, vowing “we will do everything to secure peace and justice.” A Kremlin spokesperson said today that Russia is continuing its peacemaking efforts and argued that other countries’ interventions in the war had expanded its scope into that of a broader confrontation with the West. 

By the numbers. It will cost around $588 billion over the next decade to rebuild Ukraine and enable its economic recovery, a new assessment from the European Commission, Ukrainian government, and World Bank said yesterday. That’s around a 12 percent jump from last year’s estimate—reflecting new damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over the last year. Meanwhile, Russia is pouring around half of its federal budget into the war. As many as 325,000 Russian troops and 140,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed in fighting, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated last month, making this the deadliest war in Europe since World War II.

“The war in Ukraine has been a tragic and costly tutorial in twenty-­first-century conflict. Both sides have mobilized and reshaped their societies, attacked a variety of important targets, and suffered devastating casualties. The great-power wars of the future could be even more destructive.”

—CFR expert Rebecca Lissner and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s John Kawika Warden, Foreign Affairs

Across the Globe

EU hits pause on U.S. deal. The EU postponed a committee vote on ratifying its recent U.S. trade deal, citing the need for clarity on the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs and the president’s new flat international tariff rate. That new 10 percent rate took effect overnight. Trump had threatened on social media to raise it to 15 percent, but has not formally done so.

China’s curbs on Japanese firms. China banned twenty Japanese companies, including affiliates of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, from receiving exports of items that could be used for military purposes, its commerce ministry said today. The move escalates rising tensions between the countries. Tokyo protested, calling it “absolutely intolerable and extremely regrettable.” 

India-France tax shift. The two countries updated a treaty to reduce dividend taxes for large French investors in India and increase India’s power to tax certain transactions, India’s finance ministry said yesterday. The countries said in a joint statement last week that the changes would “pave the way for greater investments and collaborations,” though the details of the amendments were not previously announced. 

Reported Pentagon caution on Iran U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff chair Dan Caine has warned Trump and other officials that a military campaign against Iran could incur significant costs to U.S. forces and weapons, multiple news outlets reported yesterday, citing unnamed officials. Caine’s office said in a statement that he confidentially gives the president a range of options and associated risks. While the White House praised Caine in a statement, Trump wrote on social media that it is “100% incorrect” that Caine is “against us going to War with Iran.”

A U.S. drawdown in Syria. U.S. forces are pulling out of a base in northeastern Syria, unnamed Iraqi and Syrian security officials told the Associated Press. While U.S. Central Command did not immediately comment, it confirmed earlier this month that U.S. troops had withdrawn from different base in southeastern Syria. The shifting U.S. force posture follows the United States transfer of thousands of detainees accused of ties to the self-declared Islamic State from Syria to Iraq, where they are due to face trial.

Details from Mexico anti-drug operation. At least sixty-two people died in Sunday’s government takedown of cartel leader Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, authorities announced yesterday. The casualties included twenty-five members of Mexico’s National Guard and thirty-four suspected gang members, among others. Gang members carried out violent retaliatory attacks across the country following Oseguera’s killing, though order in multiple cities appeared to be restored yesterday, the New York Times reported. 

Chad-Sudan border closure. Chad closed its border with Sudan yesterday, citing the need to protect civilians after Sudanese armed groups repeatedly crossed into Chad. The Sudanese border town of al-Tina was the site of hostilities in recent days between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and local fighters aligned with Sudan’s military. Five Chadian soldiers and three civilians were reported killed. 

Anthropic’s accusation against Chinese firms. Anthropic yesterday accused three Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) companies—DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, and MiniMax—of creating roughly twenty-four thousand fake accounts to try to glean capabilities about its model Claude. It argued the companies were illicitly using the tactic, known as distillation, to train their models and claimed that it created national security risks for the United States. The accusation comes after OpenAI earlier this month accused DeepSeek of the same tactic. The three Chinese firms did not immediately comment to multiple U.S. news outlets.

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