U.S. Officials Float More Limited War Aims

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Top of the Agenda

Senior Trump administration officials outlined more limited war aims this week, as costs mount for U.S. consumers. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday that goals of degrading Iran’s military capabilities had mostly been achieved. The White House press secretary declined to confirm yesterday that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz was a “core” objective, while the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told aides he was willing to end the war even if the strait remained mostly closed. Even so, Trump on social media yesterday threatened destruction of Iranian civilian infrastructure if it was not reopened. The war has triggered rising energy prices worldwide, including in the United States, where the average price of gasoline surpassed $4 per gallon today for the first time since 2022. 

The latest in diplomacy. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters today that negotiations with Iran are “very real” and “gaining strength.” Pakistan’s foreign minister is visiting China today for talks regarding the war. Beijing “commends and supports” Pakistan’s mediation effort and is ready to work toward peace, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said ahead of the visit. 

The latest in hostilities. NATO air defenses shot down an incoming Iranian missile over Turkey yesterday for the fourth time this month, Ankara said. Iran also attacked a water desalination facility in Kuwait, killing one worker, and an oil tanker off the coast of Dubai. A U.S.-Israeli strike on an orphanage west of Tehran killed at least two people, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported. In Lebanon, two more UN peacekeepers were killed yesterday, prompting the UN Security Council to schedule an emergency meeting for today.

“There is no doubt that regime change [in Iran]…would be the ideal outcome. But there is no way to assign this mission to military forces. It can reasonably be argued that the use of military force to date has made such an outcome less likely, as the war has brought to the fore more radical leaders and has shifted popular focus away from the regime’s mismanagement of the economy and its brutal crackdown on dissent.”

—CFR President Emeritus Richard Haass on Substack

Across the Globe

The IMF issues a warning on the war... While the Iran war’s precise effects on the global economy remain uncertain, “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth,” economists from the IMF wrote yesterday. They flagged risks of food insecurity in low-income countries from rising food and fertilizer prices, as well as potential shortages of materials needed for chips and electric car batteries. 

…and governments weigh conservation steps. European governments should consider asking their citizens to drive or fly less, European Union (EU) energy chief Dan Jørgensen said in a letter to the bloc’s energy ministers seen by Politico. South Korea is weighing extending driving restrictions from public to private sector workers, its finance minister said Sunday.

Taiwan’s opposition politics. The leader of Taiwan’s largest opposition party will visit China for the first time in ten years, the party said yesterday. It added that Kuomintang party chair Cheng Li-wun hopes the visit next month can promote peace in cross-strait relations. China’s government refuses to speak with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s government, which it considers separatist.

Myanmar’s election. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing was nominated for the country’s presidency as parliament began voting yesterday to elect the country’s next leader. He has been sanctioned by multiple Western countries for leading a coup in 2021. The largest opposition parties were blocked from running in the country’s recent parliamentary election, though the junta has voiced hope the vote will restore its international legitimacy.

Israeli law on executions. Israel passed a law yesterday making hangings the default punishment for Palestinians convicted in military courts of lethal militant attacks. Experts said it is unlikely Jewish Israelis will face the same penalty for deadly attacks against Palestinians. France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom (UK) called the law “de facto discriminatory” ahead of its passage, and its opponents inside Israel filed legal petitions against it at the Supreme Court.

U.S. restarts some asylum processing. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said yesterday it would resume processing asylum applications from “non-high-risk” countries, continuing to exclude applicants from multiple countries in Africa and the Middle East. It ends a processing freeze imposed last November after an asylum-seeker was charged in the shooting of two National Guard members. 

Germany’s plans for Syrian refugees. Germany and Syria will coordinate to speed the return of Syrian refugees living in Germany, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said yesterday during a visit by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Both leaders said Syrians who wish to stay in Germany would be allowed to, but Merz said that 80 percent of Syrians in Germany are expected to repatriate in the next three years. 

Russia expels UK diplomat. Moscow expelled a British diplomat yesterday that it accused of economic espionage, a move the UK foreign ministry called “completely unacceptable” and predicated on “baseless accusations.” Russian state television said Moscow has now expelled sixteen British diplomats in the span of only two years.

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