Council of Councils
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At COP28, the UN climate summit held two years ago in Dubai, countries agreed to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by mid-century, and set global goals in energy innovation, renewable energy, efficiency, and more to help them reach this target. At COP30, which took place in Belém, Brazil, countries reiterated their commitments to those goals, but their progress so far has been uneven.
CFR’s Global Energy Innovation Index measures how well countries are translating the global energy goals from Dubai into credible national policies. It shows that, though some countries have incorporated most of the goals into their national plans, others are falling significantly short. Collectively, national commitments don’t yet add up to achieving the global objectives.
The COP28 Global Stocktake
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The Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake process is designed to assess the global response to climate change every five years, and to encourage governments to strengthen their commitments over time. As part of this process, delegates in Dubai made pledges on these collective global energy goals:
- Triple renewable energy capacity by 2030
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Double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030
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Phase down the use of coal unless its emissions are captured and stored or utilized
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Accelerate efforts toward a net zero emissions energy system
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Reduce non-CO2 emissions, particularly methane
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Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
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Accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage
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Reduce emissions from road transport, including through zero- and low-emission vehicles
Analysis from the International Energy Agency finds that the renewable energy and energy efficiency goals are the most critical to achieving the Paris Agreement’s stretch goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century. Meeting these two goals alone can yield nearly two-thirds of the emissions reductions by 2030 necessary to keep that target within reach.
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Translating global goals into national commitments
Public commitments to climate and clean energy goals send powerful signals to markets, the public, and the international community about a nation’s willingness to support clean energy innovation. These signals matter. Even the most promising technologies struggle to scale without a supportive social and political environment. When governments make credible pledges, they create the conditions for innovations to scale.
The Global Energy Innovation Index evaluates the extent to which nations have incorporated the COP28 energy goals into their national climate pledges, known as NDCs. Here, the news is good. Of the 39 countries included in the Index, 77 percent have a quantified renewable energy target in their NDC, 67 percent have a quantified energy efficiency target, and 87 percent have set a net-zero emissions target that is embedded in a formal policy document.
The Index also tracks whether countries have joined international pledges and alliances that align with the COP28 goals. These include the Powering Past Coal Alliance, the Global Methane Pledge, the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy by 2050, and six other initiatives spanning electricity grids and energy storage, cooling, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, zero-emission vehicles, and fossil fuel subsidy phase-outs.
Crucially, many of these agreements include specific requirements for signatories to ensure they are on track to meet their commitments, providing an extra layer of accountability. For example, the coalition to phase out fossil fuel subsidies requires nations to inventory their domestic subsidies and develop a plan to phase them out, which is publicly shared with the international community.
These data reveal uneven progress. While 74 percent of countries in the Index have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, only 33 percent are members of the Coalition on Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Incentives Including Subsidies.
Looking Ahead
Transforming the global energy system is an awesome task requiring sustained political and financial commitment. The COP28 energy goals provide important markers for tracking progress—if fully implemented, they provide a narrow path to keeping warming below 1.5 °C. However, the Global Energy Innovation Index reveals significant gaps between those collective goals and the national commitments countries have made to achieve them. As attention turns to COP31 in Turkey next year, countries should keep the COP28 energy goals front and center. Stronger national commitments don’t just demonstrate climate ambition—they create the policy certainty that enables the energy innovation essential to achieving those goals.
Colin Cunliff is the Former Director of Strategic Analysis, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy