The Strait of Hormuz: A U.S.-Iran Maritime Flash Point

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have raised the specter of imminent conflict, with one of the warning signs emerging in the Strait of Hormuz. Open-source air traffic radar data showed dozens of U.S. fighter jets positioning near Iran last week, while Iran had partially closed the strait during talks with the United States. 

The strait is a crucial choke point in the global oil trade. The U.S. government estimates that roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and a quarter of the world’s liquified natural gas is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, which is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and abuts southern Iran. Gulf countries, which rely on unimpeded travel through the strait to access world oil markets, would see their access severely curtailed in the event of a major regional conflict.

Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions reached a pitch in February 2026, as Iran temporarily shut down the Strait of Hormuz to conduct live fire drills while Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Geneva for nuclear talks with the United States. The move raised concerns that Iran could use the Strait of Hormuz to stymie oil supply as a tactic against U.S. aggression. Trump warned on February 19 that Iran had ten to fifteen days to reach a nuclear deal with his administration before he would decide whether to continue diplomacy or order an attack on Iran. Iran has warned it will respond “decisively and proportionally” to U.S. aggression. 

Iran’s use of the strait as a bargaining chip is not unprecedented. Iranian officials threatened to close off the waterway in April 2019 after Trump ended sanctions waivers for importers of Iranian oil, effectively eliminating a vital source of revenue for Tehran. The United States has long considered freedom of navigation a vital interest, setting the stage for confrontation should Iran try to block shipping in the international waterway. During the Iran-Iraq War, U.S. naval ships escorted oil tankers through the strait, and in 1987, U.S. forces fired on Iranian forces laying mines in the Gulf, killing four sailors.

Satellite images released in February 2026 showed an influx in destroyers, combat ships, and fighter jets off the Mediterranean—in particular, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the United States’ largest warship. Meanwhile, the USS Abraham Lincoln has been identified off the coast of Oman in the Arabian Sea. The buildup marks the largest surge of U.S. military assets to the region since 2003. Flight data indicates U.S. forces are surveilling the Strait of Hormuz, and the crowding of U.S. ships in waters near the strait could increase disruptions to the waterway traffic.

The Iranian government has said it has the power to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. While experts say it would be difficult for Iran to close the strait for a prolonged period, Tehran has other means to disrupt global oil and gas exports—including small boats that can interrupt shipping and submarines that can lay mines. Whether it has the right to do so is a different matter, as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea stipulates that countries can only make sovereign decisions up to 14 miles from their coastline. Iran signed, but never ratified, the UN treaty. 

Fears of a closure alone could drive up oil prices, but a full closure could result in a $10–20 hike per barrel and completely disrupt the oil market, experts predict. While industry analysts suggest a full closure of the strait is unlikely, the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran could nonetheless spillover into a global issue—with the power to disrupt oil and gas deliveries to other countries.