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Iraq

The Trouble with the U.S.-Iraq Pact; Saudis Broker Taliban-Karzai Talks

F. Gregory Gause III, a leading expert on Iraq and Saudi Arabia, says a lack of leadership among Iraq’s Shiite politicians is holding up approval of a U.S.-Iraqi security pact. He also talks about new Saudi efforts to engage the Taliban in a peace parley.

 

By experts and staff

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  • F. Gregory Gause III
    Professor and chair of political science department, University of Vermont, Professor of Political Science, University of Vermont
  • Bernard Gwertzman
    Visiting Fellow

Sen. Barack Obama

You’ve been following the fortunes of the political parties in Iraq for some time. What is the status of the security agreement which would allow U.S. forces to stay in Iraq beyond the end of this year, and until at least the end of 2011?

What is the problem?

It would seem obvious that Iraqis should be able to request an extension if they needed it, right?

It’s a little unclear on the politics. The next elections are supposed to be provincial elections in January 2009, right? Provincial elections wouldn’t really get into this issue would they?

Let’s talk about Maliki briefly. About a year ago, he was considered a weakling, couldn’t get anything done. He was criticized heavily in the U.S. Congress. Then, last spring, he launched an invasion of the Basra area. It first looked like a disaster, then it succeeded with U.S. help. Then he began to seem more like a strongman. How much control does he actually have?

Where does the SIIC stand?

They’re supposed to be the most pro-American of the Shiites?

And the Iranians obviously are publically opposed to this agreement.

So what’s your guess? What’s going to happen?

I’m going to switch gears now and go to Saudi Arabia. There was a report that the Saudis were trying to be an intermediary between the Taliban and the Karzai government in Afghanistan. Is there any substance to that?

I didn’t know the Saudis would have any influence with the Taliban. Did they support them?

But of course the Saudis can’t stand al-Qaeda.

If you were in Washington after November 4th, what’s going to be the main issues you think vis-à-vis U.S.-Arab relations when the new administration takes office.

Senator McCain

You think if Obama wins the Iranians might make a big gesture or would they feel that Obama’s been a little softer than McCain so they can be harder?

Are you a formal advisor for any campaign?