Voters Worry About Election Integrity 

Election Day is three months away. For some time now, experts have been warning that the midterm elections may not be free and fair. Voters may be deterred from going to the polls, and votes may not be properly handled or counted. A new Gallup poll suggests that Americans have gotten the message. A large portion of the electorate worries that they will not see free-and-fair elections in November.

Gallup asked more than 23,000 voters how concerned they were about six aspects of the upcoming congressional and state elections. The poll was conducted from April 24 through June 10. So the findings were not influenced by President Donald Trump’s July 16 nationally televised address alleging foreign interference in past U.S. elections, though his claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him and his efforts to restrict mail-in balloting are well known to both his critics and his supporters.  

The threat that topped the list for Americans, with 67 percent expressing “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of concern, is that political leaders will pressure election officials to change election outcomes. That was followed by 57 percent who worry that ballots will not be properly handled, counted, or secured, 52 percent who worry about voter intimidation near polling places, and 50 percent who worry that their ballots will not be counted.

As the table shows, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents rank those four concerns differently. Republicans worry most that ballots will not be properly handled, counted, or secured, and they worry least about voter intimidation. Democrats and Independents, in contrast, worry most about political pressure to change political outcomes and least about the prospect that their votes will not be counted.  

While the partisan differences are notable, they should not obscure the fact that Americans across the political spectrum worry about election integrity. At least 40 percent of the public is concerned about each of the six aspects of elections they were asked about. A majority had concerns about four of them. 

How do these numbers look from a historical perspective? It is impossible to say. Neither Gallup nor other pollsters have regularly surveyed the public’s views on election integrity. But the absence of such questions tells us something. Pollsters generally do not ask questions about issues that are not on the public’s mind. Until recently, election integrity seemingly has not been a significant policy issue. 

The public’s fears about the integrity of the November elections may not materialize. Speculation about the myriad ways the vote could be tipped could remain just that as traditional laws, norms, and procedures prevail. 

Even so, Gallup’s numbers highlight the current ills of American politics. Democracy rests on the consent of the governed. It cannot succeed if the governed doubt that election results reflect their will.

Numbers to Note

The slight uptick in Trump’s approval ratings in June turned into a downtick in July. An average of national polls has 38.2 percent of Americans giving him a thumbs up, compared to 39.3 percent on July 3. In comparison, 58.8 percent give him a thumbs down, which is up 1.3 points from a month ago. Trump’s net approval rating now stands at -20.6 points, the lowest so far in his second term.  

Democrats hold a 6.4-point edge over Republicans in an average of national polls on the generic congressional ballot. A month ago, the lead was 6.2 points. The high point so far for Democrats in 2026 was a lead of 7.1 points.  

The resumption of attacks on Iran is not helping the Republican cause. An AP-NORC poll released late last month found that just one in three Americans thinks that war with Iran has been worthwhile. When asked to assess Trump’s handling of the conflict, 96 percent of Democrats disapproved, while 61 percent of Republican approved. In the June AP-NORC poll, 71 percent Republicans had approved of Trump’s handling of the war.  

Rising gas prices are likely eroding Republican approval for Operation Epic Fury. The average price for a gallon of gas today stands at $4.10. While that is substantially lower than the peak average of roughly $4.50 a gallon earlier this year, it’s still $0.26 higher than this time last month.   

The latest projection by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has twenty House seats as toss ups. Fifteen of those seats are or were held by Republicans, and five are held by Democrats. Back in April, Crystal Ball projected thirteen seats as toss-ups. The increased number of toss-up races largely reflects seats moving from the “leans Republican” category to toss-up. On the Senate side, the Crystal Ball rates four Senate seats as toss-ups—Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—with forty-seven seats in the blue column and forty-nine in red column. With these numbers, both Democrats and Republicans can see a path to being the majority party in the next Congress. 

However the vote breaks on Election Day, Congress will see many new faces come next January 3. As of today, thirteen senators and sixty-five representatives have either declined to run for reelection or lost reelection in their party’s primary. That’s 15 percent of all congressional seats. The number of new faces will no doubt grow larger. Eighteen states have yet to hold their primaries, and some incumbents will inevitably lose in the general election. 

Beyond that, the Republican caucuses in both the House and Senate will be more MAGA than is currently the case regardless of whether Republicans retain majority control. Several senators and representatives that have gotten crosswise with Trump over the years have either opted to retire, as with Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, or they have lost their primary bids to Trump-backed candidates, as happened to Senators Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, John Cornyn of Texas, and Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky. That suggests that congressional Republicans will not be quick to abandon Trump should a blue wave materialize in November.  

Worth Reading

John B. Judis argued for NOTUS that the prospects for Democrats in November are not nearly as good as the conventional wisdom suggests because “Republicans continue to hold insufficiently appreciated advantages in American politics.” One thing Republicans have going for them is that the Democratic Party brand remains unpopular. A recent Quinnipiac poll found that the approval rating for congressional Democrats stands at just 23 percent. Republicans hope to take advantage of that dislike and win a “hate election.” As a Republican strategist told Axios: “Voters have to hate the Dems more than they hate us. And we have material to work with.”

Lawfare’s Natalie K. Orpett, Molly Roberts, and Loren Voss wrote a two-part piece on whether presidents have the legal authority to use the U.S. military to police U.S. elections. They argue first that existing law places significant limits on the president’s ability to deploy the military domestically, while acknowledging that presidents can marshal some legal arguments to justify overriding or skirting those limitations. They conclude that “a president with a propensity for pushing the limits of executive authority… might be tempted to capitalize on the [legal] uncertainty by sending in the troops first and letting legal challenges follow.”

Oscar Berry and Jack Patton assisted in the preparation of this article.

Other posts in this monthly series:

The Supreme Court, Mail-in Voting, Campaign Spending, and the 2026 Midterm Elections 

What Do Voters Think of Operation Epic Fury After Three Months?  

Gerrymandering, the Supreme Court, and the 2026 Midterm Elections 

Will Operation Epic Fury Affect the Midterm Elections? 

Midterm Elections Are Eight Months Away 

Midterm Elections Are Nine Months Away