Nigeria’s Future Hinges on Its States

Nigerians are looking to newly elected President Muhammadu Buhari to chart a new trajectory for Africa’s largest economy and most populous country. Yet a large cast of subnational politicians will play an equally important role in shaping the country’s future.

Nigeria is a federation of thirty-six states, each with populations, economic profiles, and budgets comparable to small countries. The country’s latest election cycle brought high focus to the presidency, but Nigeria’s overall stability, prosperity, and business environment is determined more by day-to-day dynamics at the state-level than it is by national-level decision making. 

Decisions made by Nigeria’s state governors have over the years caused global oil prices to fluctuate, fueled the rise of Boko Haram, and arrested the spread of Ebola in Nigeria. Governors are the preeminent political figures in their respective states, but are also national power brokers and political party kingpins. They try to ameliorate, though at times they aggravate, insecurity in their states, even coopting federal security officials when necessary.

Under Buhari, the political influence of the country’s governors will grow in some respects and diminish in others: his hands-off approach to party politics gives his coalition’s twenty-two governors an opening to assert their influence.

Nigeria’s international partners and foreign investors often overestimate the on-the-ground influence of national elites. Whether international partners want to tackle insecurity, promote democracy, or facilitate a business deal, they must develop long-term strategies anchored by a better understanding of the Nigeria that exists beyond Lagos and Abuja and fueled by a deeper network of relationships there.