Terrorism

Terrorism happens when nonstate actors use or threaten violence to target civilians or governments, in order to achieve political, ideological, or religious objectives. Terrorism destabilizes states, fuels regional insecurity, and can provoke military interventions and counterterrorism campaigns.

Men in military uniforms march carrying a coffin while another man in a uniform holds a framed photo.

Violent Extremism in the Sahel

Type: Political InstabilityTerrorism
Impact on U.S.: Limited
Status: Worsening

Weak governance, poverty, and climate stress have allowed jihadist groups to establish a foothold across the Sahel, with the Liptako-Gourma borderlands of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger now accounting for over half of global terrorism-related deaths. Military coups have severed Western security partnerships and invited Russian forces, whose retreat from northern Mali following jihadist and Tuareg attacks in 2026 has left governments exposed to an insurgency pushing southward into coastal West Africa.

A man wearing military fatigues and a red beret pumps his first in the air while standing at a podium.

Conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea

Type: Civil WarTerrorism
Impact on U.S.: Significant
Status: Worsening

Since 2014, Houthi rebels have fought a Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognized government, a conflict that quieted under a UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022. The Iran-backed group subsequently launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in protest of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, drawing U.S. military retaliation and deepening Yemen’s entanglement in regional conflict. Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abha Airport in July 2026 now threaten to reignite the civil war.

Women walk through the rubble of a car bombing next to a building.

Conflict With Al-Shabaab in Somalia

Type: Political InstabilityTerrorism
Impact on U.S.: Limited
Status: Unchanging

Al-Shabaab has endured as one of al-Qaeda’s most resilient affiliates by exploiting gaps in state authority, clan divisions, and humanitarian crises across Somalia. A 2022 government offensive made early gains but has stalled, with the group deepening ties with Yemen’s Houthis and adapting through guerrilla tactics and counterattacks. The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission is at risk of collapse after the United States announced it would end logistical support beyond December 2026.

A woman stands amid the wreckage of a tent holding a prayer mat.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Type: Territorial DisputeTerrorism
Impact on U.S.: Significant
Status: Unchanging

Hamas’s October 7, 2023, assault on Israel—killing over 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages—triggered an Israeli military campaign that killed over 70,000 Palestinian civilians and fighters and displaced nearly the entire population of Gaza. An October 2025 ceasefire secured the release of all remaining hostages and established a technocratic Palestinian governing committee. Hamas has dissolved its Gaza government but refused to disarm, citing ongoing Israeli strikes.

A member loyal to the Islamic State waves an Islamic State flag in Raqqa on June 29, 2014.

Instability in Iraq

Type: Political InstabilityTerrorism
Impact on U.S.: Limited
Status: Unchanging

More than a decade after the self-proclaimed Islamic State’s territorial defeat, Iraq continues to face IS sleeper cell attacks, and over one million Iraqis remain displaced. New Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi faces a September 2026 deadline to disarm pro-Iran militias and convince Washington that Iraq is not beholden to Tehran, a challenge complicated by ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-backed factions.

A crowd of many people stand in an urban area facing toward men on tanks.

Violent Extremism in South Asia

Type: Interstate WarTerrorism
Impact on U.S.: Limited
Status: Unchanging

Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are strained by cross-border militancy, with Islamabad attributing a surge in deadly attacks to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters operating from Afghan territory, an accusation the Taliban government denies. Pakistan has responded with strikes on Taliban military facilities, declaring “open war” in the most direct military confrontation between the two governments to date.

A woman wearing blacks walks on the rubble of bombed buildings while smoke rises.

Conflict With Hezbollah in Lebanon

Type: Interstate WarTerrorism
Impact on U.S.: Significant
Status: Unchanging

Since October 2023, Hezbollah rocket attacks have displaced roughly 96,000 Israelis from northern Israel, triggering cross-border exchanges and a full Israeli ground invasion in March 2026. The offensive left Israel controlling roughly 20 percent of Lebanese territory and over one million Lebanese displaced. In June, a U.S.-brokered framework conditioned any Israeli withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament—a condition the group has rejected, leaving Israeli forces entrenched in southern Lebanon.

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