
Political Instability in Iraq
View All Conflicts
Middle East and North Africa
Significant
Unchanging
Civil War
Recent Developments
In late April 2018, the U.S. military officially disbanded the command overseeing the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq, declaring an end to major combat operations against the group. More than five thousand U.S. service members remain in Iraq as part of a train, advise, and assist mission bolstered by NATO troops, to help train the Iraqi military and stabilize the country.
A coalition of parties led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr won a surprise victory in Iraq’s parliamentary elections in May 2018, raising questions about Iranian influence in Baghdad and the future of U.S. troops in Iraq. In October 2018, Barham Saleh was elected president of Iraq. Saleh then named Shiite politician Adel Abdul Mahdi, a former vice president and oil minister, as prime minister and charged Mahdi with forming a government. Mahdi had emerged as the consensus candidate following months of negotiations between the two largest Shiite-led factions in parliament. In addition to overseeing the reconstruction effort, Mahdi’s government faces immediate challenges in addressing protests that turned violent in the fall of 2018, particularly in the southern city of Basra.
Background
In 2014, the Islamic State advanced into Iraq from Syria and took over parts of Anbar province, eventually expanding control in the northern part of the country and capturing Mosul in June 2014. Former President Barack Obama authorized targeted air strikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, and the United States formed an international coalition that now includes nearly eighty countries to counter the Islamic State. Regional forces—including as many as thirty thousand Iranian troops—joined the Iraqi army, local tribes, and the Kurdish Peshmerga in operations to begin retaking territory from the group, eventually recapturing Tikrit in April 2015, Ramadi in December 2015, Fallujah in June 2016, and Mosul in July 2017. The Iraqi government declared victory over the Islamic State in December 2017.
The fight to dislodge the Islamic State was exacerbated by underlying sectarian tensions in Iraq among Sunni and Shiite groups, as well as tensions between Kurdish groups in the north and the government in Baghdad, which intensified after the U.S. invasion in 2003 and the fall of Saddam Hussein. These tensions now threaten the stability of the new Iraqi government as it looks to rebuild the country and prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State.
Iraq faces significant challenges in its recovery from the war against the Islamic State. More than two million people remain internally displaced and nearly nine million remain in need of humanitarian assistance following the nearly four-year long war, and reconstruction is projected to cost at least $88 billion. In addition to reintegrating liberated Sunni communities into the political system, the new government must also deal with the demobilization and integration of powerful Shiite militias that formed during the fight against the Islamic State into the Iraqi security forces, as well as ongoing tensions with Kurdish groups pressing for greater autonomy in the north following a failed independence referendum in October 2017.
Concerns
After leading an international coalition to regain territory taken by the Islamic State, the United States has an interest in preventing a resurgence of the militant group and supporting a stable government in Iraq. There remains a larger concern that the aftermath of the conflict and challenges of reconstruction and reintegration will lead to the breakup of Iraq and that sectarian tension will plague the region for years to come, possibly expanding into a proxy conflict among various international groups. Additionally, there are concerns that the Islamic State, having lost control of territory in Iraq and Syria, may revert to its insurgency roots and refocus on orchestrating terrorist attacks.
Alerts
A Visual Exploration of the Conflict
Political Instability in Iraq

Political Instability in Iraq





Background Articles
Maria Fantappie International Crisis Group October 10, 2019
Scott Peterson Christian Science Monitor October 9, 2019
Jennifer Cafarella and Samantha Leathley Institute for the Study of War October 3, 2019
Zeina Karam and Qassim Adbul-Zahra Associated Press October 3, 2019
Linda Robinson Foreign Affairs September/October 2019
Tom Westcott New Humanitarian September 26, 2019
Tom Westcott New Humanitarian September 26, 2019
Brian M. Perkins Jamestown Foundation September 10, 2019
Lizzie Porter New Humanitarian September 9, 2019
International Crisis Group August 29, 2019
Michael Knights CTC Sentinel August 2019
Rafid Jaboori Jamestown Foundation August 9, 2019
Renad Mansour Chatham House July 24, 2019
Christopher M. Blanchard Congressional Research Service July 11, 2019
Sarhang Hamasaeed and Garrett Nada United States Institute of Peace July 9, 2019
Vanda Felbab-Brown Brookings Institution June 2019
Harith Hasan Carnegie Middle East Center June 27, 2019
Douglas A. Ollivant and Erica Gaston War on the Rocks May 31, 2019
Ramon Blecua War on the Rocks May 29, 2019
Nancy Lindborg United States Institute of Peace May 20, 2019
Bram Janssen Associated Press May 13, 2019
Kenneth R. Rosen Wired May 2, 2019
Wilson Center April 30, 2019
Zmkan Ali Saleem and Mac Skelton London School of Economics April 29, 2019
International Crisis Group March 27, 2019
Brian M. Perkins Jamestown Foundation March 12, 2019
Aziz Ahmad New York Review of Books February 13, 2019
Douglas G. Ollivant War on the Rocks January 16, 2019
Rafid Jaboori Jamestown Foundation January 11, 2019
Ben Taub New Yorker December 31, 2018
International Crisis Group December 14, 2018
Ranj Alaaldin Brookings Institution November 26, 2018
Renad Mansour Center for Strategic and International Studies November 2018
Toby Dodge Foreign Affairs October 17, 2018
Christopher M. Blanchard Congressional Research Service October 4, 2018
Ranj Alaaldin Foreign Affairs September 13, 2018
Krishnadev Calamur The Atlantic August 31, 2018
As Iraq Slips From the Headlines, Humanitarians Worry That Aid Donors are Beginning to Lose Interest
Annie Slemrod IRIN August 2, 2018
International Crisis Group July 31, 2018
International Crisis Group July 30, 2018
Rafid Jaboori Jamestown Foundation July 28, 2018
Marsin Alshamary War on the Rocks July 25, 2018
Ahmed Aboulenein Reuters June 11, 2018
Mohamad Bazzi Foreign Affairs May 24, 2018
Harith Hasan Al-Qarawee War on the Rocks May 11, 2018
Arwa Ibrahim Al Jazeera May 8, 2018
Douglas A. Ollivant, Bartle Bull New America Foundation April 24, 2018
Emma Sky Foreign Affairs April 5, 2018
Rukmini Callimachi New York Times April 4, 2018
Renad Mansour War on the Rocks April 3, 2018
Qassim Abdul-Zahra and Susannah George Associated Press March 28, 2018
Douglas A. Ollivant War on the Rocks March 13, 2018
International Crisis Group February 20, 2018
Heather Murdock Voice of America January 25, 2018
Osama Gharizi and Haidar Al-Ibrahimi War on the Rocks January 17, 2018
Bennett Seftel Cipher Brief January 11, 2018
Sarhang Hamasaeed War on the Rocks December 15, 2017
Azmat Khan and Anand Gopal New York Times November 16, 2017
Emma Sky Foreign Affairs November/December 2017
John Beck Al Jazeera October 11, 2017
David Zucchino New York Times October 6, 2017
Renad Mansour and Erwin Van Veen War on the Rocks August 25, 2017
Charlie Winter The Atlantic July 3, 2017
Joost Hiltermann New York Review of Books July 1, 2017
Mike Giglio BuzzFeed News June 3, 2017
Atlantic Council May 2017
Populations at Risk Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Ben Connable, Natasha Lander, and Kimberly Jackson RAND Corporation 2017
Kenneth R. Rosen Foreign Affairs May 22, 2017
Jeffrey Martini, Heather J. Williams, and William Glendon Young RAND Corporation 2017
Vera Mironova and Ekaterina Sergatskova Foreign Affairs February 15, 2017
David Zucchino New York Times February 14, 2017
Hayder al-Khoei, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Mattia Toaldo European Council on Foreign Relations January 4, 2017
International Organization for Migration
Hassan Hassan Carnegie Endowment for International Peace June 13, 2016
Ilan Goldenberg, Nicholas A. Heras, and Paul Scharre Center for a New American Security June 2016
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count
Latest CFR Analysis
Barham Salih and Meghan O’Sullivan CFR Event September 27, 2019
Meghan L. O’Sullivan Bloomberg October 3, 2018
Robert McMahon and James M. Lindsay CFR Podcast, "The World Next Week" September 27, 2018
Michael Dempsey Axios July 31, 2018
Emma Sky and Maria Casa CFR Academic Conference Call March 21, 2018
Steven A. Cook and Robert McMahon CFR Podcast October 26, 2017
Steven A. Cook Salon October 23, 2017
Max Boot CFR Expert Brief October 17, 2017
Amy Myers Jaffe CFR Blog, "Energy Realpolitik" October 4, 2017
Steven A. Cook Salon September 10, 2017
Micah Zenko New York Times June 19, 2017
Zachary Laub CFR Backgrounder
Elliott Abrams, Sheila Smith, Alina Polyakova, and Tiffany McGriff CFR Event April 29, 2017
Micah Zenko and Jennifer Wilson CFR Blog, "Politics, Power, and Preventive Action" April 24, 2017
Zachary Laub and Philip H. Gordon CFR Interview April 24, 2017
CFR InfoGuide
Micah Zenko Foreign Policy August 16, 2016
Rukmini Callimachi and Zachary Laub CFR Interview August 3, 2016
Ned Parker and Zachary Laub CFR Interview July 12, 2016
Richard N. Haass Project Syndicate July 8, 2016
Steven A. Cook and Amr T. Leheta Foreign Policy May 13, 2016
Mohamad Bazzi and Zachary Laub CFR Interview May 5, 2016
Naomi Kikoler and Zachary Laub CFR Interview April 1, 2016
Max Boot House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hearing, "The Paris Attacks: A Strategic Shift by ISIS?" December 2, 2015
David P. Fidler CFR Cyber Brief June 2015
CFR Timeline
Primary Sources
U.S. Department of Defense November 2018
UNHCR
U.S. Department of State
U.S. Department of Defense
Embassy of the United States
The White House
U.S. Department of State
Fact Sheet The White House April 14, 2015
The White House April 14, 2015
CFR Experts

Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars